Hard Romney Swing Areas
1. Appalachia/Coal
2. Mormons/Utah
3. Corn areas of IL, IN, MO
4. Oil in ND, MT, TX
5. NE WI. I have no idea why.
Obama swing areas:
1. Black Belt
2. Sandy-hit areas (NYC, Jersey Shore)
3. Miami and Orlando areas (non-Cuban latin@ growth)
4. Mexican border areas, from the Rio Grande valley to Imperial county
5. Upstate NY (no idea why)
I was rather surprised by the swing to Obama in the black counties of the South. What was going on there? Is it a turnout thing, with Republican-voting whites in the area not showing up to vote, while blacks maintained their support, or did Obama manage to convince whites who voted for McCain to vote for him this time around? I just thought the black community was so enthused last election, it would be difficult for Obama to pick up any swing there this time.
I was also surprised that the swing in eastern Idaho wasn't larger - that area has a large number of Mormons, doesn't it? I guess it's perhaps already so Republican, that there wasn't much room for it to swing (rather like San Fransisco or DC last election, which both trended Republican, because they couldn't really pick up any more Democrat voters).
Rural white flight perhaps?
