County Swing Map
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Author Topic: County Swing Map  (Read 18305 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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« on: November 08, 2012, 02:15:14 AM »

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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2012, 02:21:11 AM »

Beautiful.
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bgwah
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« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2012, 02:33:09 AM »

I think it's interesting to compare it to the TV market map. In some cases, it's pretty clear which states Obama tried for in 2008 but not 2012.



Also --- what happened in Plaquemines Parish?
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2012, 02:57:50 AM »
« Edited: November 08, 2012, 08:06:53 PM by Smid »

Great work!

Edit: Here's a map of religion in the US. It's a decade old.

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shua
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« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2012, 03:09:09 AM »

wow beautiful map!

that is quite a topographic/physiographic swing map - I mean considering the correlation with physical regions in the Eastern half of the country. The diversion between the Southeast coastal plains and Appalachians with the Piedmont in between, and with the Central Lowland, is striking.

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greenforest32
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« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2012, 03:22:11 AM »

Wow, you can really see the coal area swings.

Is there a story behind the shifts in Missouri?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2012, 06:19:25 AM »

Ohio sticks out like a sore thumb.
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bore
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« Reply #7 on: November 08, 2012, 11:10:50 AM »

Great work! You can really see which areas of the country have large black populations.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #8 on: November 08, 2012, 12:14:27 PM »

I would love to see a 2000-2012 swing map.
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Benj
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« Reply #9 on: November 08, 2012, 12:32:05 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2012, 12:35:13 PM by Benj »

Great work! You can really see which areas of the country have large black populations.

Minority in general, really, or at least minorities who vote regularly. A lot of Hispanic and Native American counties swung as much as the heavily or significantly black counties in the South.

Ohio is a bit of a sore thumb, but I'd say upstate New York is the biggest sore thumb for not being easily explained by demographics (the minority counties), economics (at least we know central Ohio has a thriving economy, so its pro-incumbent swing is not that odd) or Sandy (New Jersey and NYC).
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bore
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« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2012, 12:45:49 PM »

What happened in Clark county ID, is it just a case of small amounts of voters being unpredictable (it only had about 300 voters) or is there something else going on?
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2012, 01:40:43 PM »

What happened in Clark county ID, is it just a case of small amounts of voters being unpredictable (it only had about 300 voters) or is there something else going on?

The county has a rapidly expanding Hispanic population (Hispanics are more than 40% of the population). My guess is that the Hispanics started to turn out this time.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2012, 04:19:29 PM »

I notice Romney did a little worse than expected in places with strong Occupy organization, and a little better in places without.
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memphis
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« Reply #13 on: November 08, 2012, 04:24:25 PM »

Hard Romney Swing Areas
1. Appalachia/Coal
2. Mormons/Utah
3. Corn areas of IL, IN, MO
4. Oil in ND, MT, TX
5. NE WI. I have no idea why.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #14 on: November 08, 2012, 05:00:44 PM »

Hard Romney Swing Areas
1. Appalachia/Coal
2. Mormons/Utah
3. Corn areas of IL, IN, MO
4. Oil in ND, MT, TX
5. NE WI. I have no idea why.
Correction of huge 2008 result (as also 3 and to an extent ND/MT.)
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Benj
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« Reply #15 on: November 08, 2012, 05:17:26 PM »

What happened in Clark county ID, is it just a case of small amounts of voters being unpredictable (it only had about 300 voters) or is there something else going on?

The county has a rapidly expanding Hispanic population (Hispanics are more than 40% of the population). My guess is that the Hispanics started to turn out this time.

Really? Weird. Why are Hispanics moving into such a random tiny county in Idaho?
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Velasco
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« Reply #16 on: November 08, 2012, 06:47:22 PM »

Nice map. It's remarkable the swing towards Obama in Miami-Dade, Broward and Osceola counties in Florida. Looking at this graphic in the NYT and how the Hispanic population grew up between 2008 and 2011 in those counties (we could add Pinellas, Hillsborough and Orange) it's pretty clear whom helped Obama to win the state.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/07/us/politics/obamas-diverse-base-of-support.html?ref=politics
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nclib
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« Reply #17 on: November 08, 2012, 07:08:54 PM »

Good map. Interesting how unlike 2008, 2004, 2000, and 1996, the county swing map isn't that ideological. More a question of race, region, and "correction" of 2008 performance.

I assume the Conn. map is based on the early Atlas figures, rather than the actual 58-41 result?
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Kitteh
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« Reply #18 on: November 08, 2012, 07:25:11 PM »

Hard Romney Swing Areas
1. Appalachia/Coal
2. Mormons/Utah
3. Corn areas of IL, IN, MO
4. Oil in ND, MT, TX
5. NE WI. I have no idea why.

Obama swing areas:
1. Black Belt
2. Sandy-hit areas (NYC, Jersey Shore)
3. Miami and Orlando areas (non-Cuban latin@ growth)
4. Mexican border areas, from the Rio Grande valley to Imperial county
5. Upstate NY (no idea why)
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: November 08, 2012, 08:03:18 PM »

Hard Romney Swing Areas
1. Appalachia/Coal
2. Mormons/Utah
3. Corn areas of IL, IN, MO
4. Oil in ND, MT, TX
5. NE WI. I have no idea why.

Obama swing areas:
1. Black Belt
2. Sandy-hit areas (NYC, Jersey Shore)
3. Miami and Orlando areas (non-Cuban latin@ growth)
4. Mexican border areas, from the Rio Grande valley to Imperial county
5. Upstate NY (no idea why)

I was rather surprised by the swing to Obama in the black counties of the South. What was going on there? Is it a turnout thing, with Republican-voting whites in the area not showing up to vote, while blacks maintained their support, or did Obama manage to convince whites who voted for McCain to vote for him this time around? I just thought the black community was so enthused last election, it would be difficult for Obama to pick up any swing there this time.

I was also surprised that the swing in eastern Idaho wasn't larger - that area has a large number of Mormons, doesn't it? I guess it's perhaps already so Republican, that there wasn't much room for it to swing (rather like San Fransisco or DC last election, which both trended Republican, because they couldn't really pick up any more Democrat voters).
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #20 on: November 08, 2012, 08:38:30 PM »

Hard Romney Swing Areas
1. Appalachia/Coal
2. Mormons/Utah
3. Corn areas of IL, IN, MO
4. Oil in ND, MT, TX
5. NE WI. I have no idea why.

Obama swing areas:
1. Black Belt
2. Sandy-hit areas (NYC, Jersey Shore)
3. Miami and Orlando areas (non-Cuban latin@ growth)
4. Mexican border areas, from the Rio Grande valley to Imperial county
5. Upstate NY (no idea why)

Also central Ohio and big cities in general.
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LastVoter
seatown
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« Reply #21 on: November 08, 2012, 09:20:51 PM »

Hard Romney Swing Areas
1. Appalachia/Coal
2. Mormons/Utah
3. Corn areas of IL, IN, MO
4. Oil in ND, MT, TX
5. NE WI. I have no idea why.

Obama swing areas:
1. Black Belt
2. Sandy-hit areas (NYC, Jersey Shore)
3. Miami and Orlando areas (non-Cuban latin@ growth)
4. Mexican border areas, from the Rio Grande valley to Imperial county
5. Upstate NY (no idea why)

I was rather surprised by the swing to Obama in the black counties of the South. What was going on there? Is it a turnout thing, with Republican-voting whites in the area not showing up to vote, while blacks maintained their support, or did Obama manage to convince whites who voted for McCain to vote for him this time around? I just thought the black community was so enthused last election, it would be difficult for Obama to pick up any swing there this time.

I was also surprised that the swing in eastern Idaho wasn't larger - that area has a large number of Mormons, doesn't it? I guess it's perhaps already so Republican, that there wasn't much room for it to swing (rather like San Fransisco or DC last election, which both trended Republican, because they couldn't really pick up any more Democrat voters).
Rural white flight perhaps?
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #22 on: November 08, 2012, 09:32:13 PM »

Aside from the Mormons, this seems to have nothing to do with any personal appeal or lack thereof of Mitt Romney. It's just a combination of: the appeal or lack thereof of Barack Obama + which states were contested + demographic changes. To the extent that many of us (including, occasionally, me) on the forum were wrong about our sense of the swing in certain regions (and social classes), it had to do with not predicting this. It's as if maybe Romney, after all his contortions, just didn't stand for anything distinctive in the minds of voters except generic R/not-Obama.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #23 on: November 09, 2012, 12:02:08 AM »

An explanation for Southern Ohio?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #24 on: November 09, 2012, 12:05:32 AM »


I live close enough to southern Ohio to know that folks there are sick of Tea Party nonsense. That's why the GOP is doing worse there.
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