County Swing Map

[nclib]

Good map. Interesting how unlike 2008, 2004, 2000, and 1996, the county swing map isn't that ideological. More a question of race, region, and "correction" of 2008 performance.

I assume the Conn. map is based on the early Atlas figures, rather than the actual 58-41 result?

[nclib]

Good map. Interesting how unlike 2008, 2004, 2000, and 1996, the county swing map isn't that ideological. More a question of race, region, and "correction" of 2008 performance.

I assume the Conn. map is based on the early Atlas figures, rather than the actual 58-41 result?

No, that shows a five point swing toward Romney, which is correct.

Hard Romney Swing Areas
1. Appalachia/Coal
2. Mormons/Utah
3. Corn areas of IL, IN, MO
4. Oil in ND, MT, TX
5. NE WI. I have no idea why.

Obama swing areas:
1. Black Belt
2. Sandy-hit areas (NYC, Jersey Shore)
3. Miami and Orlando areas (non-Cuban latin@ growth)
4. Mexican border areas, from the Rio Grande valley to Imperial county
5. Upstate NY (no idea why)

I was rather surprised by the swing to Obama in the black counties of the South. What was going on there? Is it a turnout thing, with Republican-voting whites in the area not showing up to vote, while blacks maintained their support, or did Obama manage to convince whites who voted for McCain to vote for him this time around? I just thought the black community was so enthused last election, it would be difficult for Obama to pick up any swing there this time.

I was also surprised that the swing in eastern Idaho wasn't larger - that area has a large number of Mormons, doesn't it? I guess it's perhaps already so Republican, that there wasn't much room for it to swing (rather like San Fransisco or DC last election, which both trended Republican, because they couldn't really pick up any more Democrat voters).

Rural white flight perhaps?

Not that so much as just demographic change in general -  the black population is growing much faster than the whites.  Plus, turnout.  I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of blacks felt truly enfranchised politically for the first time with Obama as President, rather than just aspiring to it. Or it may just be to a large degree that blacks didn't decrease in their turnout from 2008 as much as whites there did - McCain being a better fit for the region than Romney.

Black population has, and is predicted to remain stagnant over the upcoming years. They are around 11-12% of the population right now and nearly every demographic prediction ive seen has them staying that way for the next 50+ years. More a question of turnout that birthrate

Perhaps it's a question of black vs. white turnout, though in the Deep South, counties with higher black % were more likely to swing towards Obama.