Hard Romney Swing Areas
1. Appalachia/Coal
2. Mormons/Utah
3. Corn areas of IL, IN, MO
4. Oil in ND, MT, TX
5. NE WI. I have no idea why.
Obama swing areas:
1. Black Belt
2. Sandy-hit areas (NYC, Jersey Shore)
3. Miami and Orlando areas (non-Cuban latin@ growth)
4. Mexican border areas, from the Rio Grande valley to Imperial county
5. Upstate NY (no idea why)
I'm not sure what explains Upstate New York, but the other areas can be explained relatively easily. In 2012, black turnout reached its highest level in history (at ~66% of all eligible black voters), and for the first and only time, blacks turned out at higher rates than whites did. Thus, Obama was able to receive a greater raw number of black votes, although Romney did marginally better (7%) than McCain had (5%) in terms of percentage. This helps to explain why Obama generally did better in the Black Belt, and why Louisiana and Mississippi-two of the blackest states in the Union-swung towards him. It also explains his gains in the Atlanta Metropolitan Area.
Hurricane Sandy, as noted here, clearly benefited Obama in the New York City metropolitan area and in New Jersey. Obama flipped Staten Island that year, winning it by 2.57%, after having lost it by 4.05% to McCain in 2008. Manhattan, however, actually swung
against Obama-the only one of the NYC boroughs to do so. I can only assume that was a reflection of Romney's improvement among suburban, educated, and wealthier voters compared to McCain.
The Miami, Orlando, and Mexican border swings can be explained by Obama's improvement among Hispanics. He got 71% of the Hispanic vote in 2012, compared to 67% in 2008. I assume that his stances on immigration-particularly his support for Dreamers and for comprehensive immigration reform-benefited him, and probably also his economic stances, while Romney came across as an out of touch hardliner to many Hispanic voters. The Obama campaign also seems to have engaged in more effective outreach towards Hispanics. Obama did significantly better among Cubans and also capitalized on the growing Puerto Rican vote in Central Florida. Had he not improved among Hispanics, he would have lost Florida to Romney.
Obama also improved among Asian voters in 2012 compared to 2008. So in general, he did better among minority voters overall in his reelection than he had in his first electoral bid, and this partially offset his losses among white voters (as he fell from 43% to 39% of the white vote). Of course, they didn't offset them entirely, and the heavy swings to Romney in much of the rural West, Midwest, and Appalachia reflect Obama's losses among that group, as does Romney's improvement in most suburban and white-collar areas.
