Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[America First]

Seems to me more like an emergency move precisely because Cagle was about to lose. Deal said that he wanted to stay on the sidelines, even though he clearly wasn't on the sidelines in closed rooms.

[KingSweden]

Seems to me more like an emergency move precisely because Cagle was about to lose. Deal said that he wanted to stay on the sidelines, even though he clearly wasn't on the sidelines in closed rooms.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/CaseyCagle/status/1018889973389504515

Governor Deal endorsed Cagle today. I can’t imagine the Governor backing someone who could potentially lose. They must know something we don’t. It’s going to be a long wait until next Tuesday night.

I agree, having to bring the governor out, after he seemed to be pretty ambivalent, shows weakness in Cagle. Its not like this will help, anyway.

[Hammy]

I still see this as Lean R.

As do I. I think Abrams is running a great campaign, but 50+1 will be tough

TBH with you, I think the 50%+1 is a bit overplayed. Yes, its an obstacle, but its not an electoral wall. All you need is the more enthused base on a special election, and if its held in 2018/2019, the advantage goes to the Dems.

I rate this race as pure tossup, as I dont know the R, and how strong each R would be in the general.

I'm going with Lean R for the race--Dems will probably get the most votes, but Georgia isn't FPTP and I can't see them getting 50% quite yet. Maybe in a few years, but it likely won't be this year though I'd love to be proven wrong.

[Adam Griffin]

I noted a similar scenario years ago for 2016, but if you were to take Obama's support levels in GA from 2008 and apply it to a "safe-bet" Democratic electorate* in 2018, Abrams would be at 49.7%. It's crazy to think a) how relatively little would need to change for Dems to win and b) how quickly the state is changing.

Still, even though it hasn't been that long ago since Democrats had sufficiently high enough support levels to win with today's electorate in GA, the state has managed to shed 1 Democratic vote for every 1 it has gained over the past decade...and those who don't think Democratic votes can still be lost in 2018 in GA aren't cognizant enough of the full scope of the state's electorate. I'm highly doubtful we'll lose votes in net terms (hell, we haven't even over the past decade), but any votes lost - even if made up for - simply increase the number of people you need to turnout or persuade to get to victory.

* i.e. an electoral composition in line with fairly predictable demographic shifts in GA over several past cycles

[Jeppe]

Trump endorsed Kemp. It’s gonna be Kemp vs. Abrams in the Fall!

[Zaybay]

Trump endorsed Kemp. It’s gonna be Kemp vs. Abrams in the Fall!

Did he really? Welp, looks like this race is tilt Abrams now.

Wonder if Cook will finally move it from Safe R? Nah.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump endorsed Kemp. It’s gonna be Kemp vs. Abrams in the Fall!

Did he really? Welp, looks like this race is tilt Abrams now.

Yep:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1019664477162278918

[Zaybay]

Trump endorsed Kemp. It’s gonna be Kemp vs. Abrams in the Fall!

Did he really? Welp, looks like this race is tilt Abrams now.

Yep:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1019664477162278918

Thanks Trump! Your going to hand us two South Eastern State governorships this November!

[IceSpear]

Kemp seems like a better candidate than Cagle. Way more likable and presumably less corrupt.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kemp seems like a better candidate than Cagle. Way more likable and presumably less corrupt.

He'd likely be a better governor, too; more of a Deal-like pragmatist than a fire-breathing conservative (despite his cringeworthy TV ads).

[Del Tachi]

Kemp seems like a better candidate than Cagle. Way more likable and presumably less corrupt.

[Zaybay]

To be honest, Kemp being the nominee is a huge win. If he wins, he will likely be a moderate, compared to Cagle. And he is weaker, because he has a hard time appealing to the suburbs. Cagle could appeal to them, not Kemp. If Abrams can get the primary performance, and just squeeze some extra votes out of the suburbs, then she becomes governor-elect.

[Adam Griffin]

Fuuuuuuu....

[Del Tachi]

My predictions coming true:

I suspect that Kemp will barely edge out Cagle in the first round and then best Cagle by >10 points in the runoff.

At this rate, I think something like a 58/42 Kemp victory is a big possibility

[Rookie Yinzer]

Someone get Cagle a straight jacket. He’s been chasing this job for 30 years.

[Doimper]

Trump endorsed Kemp. It’s gonna be Kemp vs. Abrams in the Fall!

Did he really? Welp, looks like this race is tilt Abrams now.

Yep:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1019664477162278918

just lol

[DrScholl]

At this point it seems like Trump is endorsing people already set to win and doing it close to election time. Not exactly bold.

[GeorgiaModerate]

At this point it seems like Trump is endorsing people already set to win and doing it close to election time. Not exactly bold.

Yes, and then when they win he claims the credit for it.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Other than Athens and the I-20 corridor east of DeKalb County for Kemp, and the North Atlanta burbs for Cagle, are there any areas that we expect either of them to run strong in or is it just a toss-up everywhere else?

[KingSweden]

At this point it seems like Trump is endorsing people already set to win and doing it close to election time. Not exactly bold.

Yes, and then when they win he claims the credit for it.

This isn’t rocket science, folks.

[Adam Griffin]

Other than Athens and the I-20 corridor east of DeKalb County for Kemp, and the North Atlanta burbs for Cagle, are there any areas that we expect either of them to run strong in or is it just a toss-up everywhere else?

It would shock me if Cagle wins a single non-urban county south of the Fall Line. In 2014, Perdue won practically none in the runoff (there was a geographic advantage for Kingston, but it's worth noting that you could also count on one hand the # of rural counties Kingston won north of it) .

I could also see Cagle come close or even win a handful of counties north of the inner metro:

• Places like Pickens and Hall (...perhaps, though Kemp's home-turf advantage will probably encroach here - if Deal's endorsement is worth anything, it might help here; Hall is the de-facto GAGOP establishment capital)
• Handel won Whitfield, Catoosa and Murray in 2014 (the Chatt media market counties - Dade, Walker, Catoosa, Whitfield, Murray - have a tendency to buck relative to the surrounding areas in both party primaries...if Kemp was winning most of North GA, it wouldn't shock me to see Cagle do well there, or vice-versa)
• Floyd is in some respects analogous to Hall and Whitfield, so there might be some above-average strength for Cagle there if it shows up in the other areas

[QAnonKelly]

Lol Cagle.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lol Cagle.

I wish I could feel bad for the guy, but he is just such a pathetic disaster of a candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Go ABRAMS