Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Zaybay]

I feel like an idiot for asking this, but I can't remember whether it's Cagle or Kemp who is seen as the un-electable idiot who'd actually give Abrams a good shot at winning.

Gonna be honest with ya, they kinda both are at this point. Kemp is the one with the shotgun and son ads, and Cagle is the moderaconservatveestablishmentoutsider with all the scandals.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I feel like an idiot for asking this, but I can't remember whether it's Cagle or Kemp who is seen as the un-electable idiot who'd actually give Abrams a good shot at winning.

Brian Kemp

https://youtu.be/4ABRz_epvic

https://youtu.be/5Q1cfjh6VfE

Casey Cagle is starting to look real vulnerable though. After trying to come across as a Country Club Moderate Republican, he is shifting hard right in his appeal to voters, he has scandals coming out left and right, he could potentially cause a turn out drop off in the rural areas, he threatened (and followed through) on denying a tax incentive for Delta over the NRA. He just comes across as a try-hard, slimy, and corrupt.

Abrams will put up a formidable race against either one though.

[Blair]

I feel like an idiot for asking this, but I can't remember whether it's Cagle or Kemp who is seen as the un-electable idiot who'd actually give Abrams a good shot at winning.

Brian Kemp

https://youtu.be/4ABRz_epvic

https://youtu.be/5Q1cfjh6VfE

Casey Cagle is starting to look real vulnerable though. After trying to come across as a Country Club Moderate Republican, he is shifting hard right in his appeal to voters, he has scandals coming out left and right, he could potentially cause a turn out drop off in the rural areas, he threatened (and followed through) on denying a tax incentive for Delta over the NRA. He just comes across as a try-hard, slimy, and corrupt.

Abrams will put up a formidable race against either one though.

Cheers; as you said, it appears that both candidates are immensely flawed. I would have assumed that the Georgia GOP would have had something better to offer, but that's going off pure assumptions. 

[Oryxslayer]

Basically they are both flawed but in entirely different ways - Abrams probably runs two entirely different campaigns depending on the nominee.

[IceSpear]

I feel like an idiot for asking this, but I can't remember whether it's Cagle or Kemp who is seen as the un-electable idiot who'd actually give Abrams a good shot at winning.

Brian Kemp

https://youtu.be/4ABRz_epvic

https://youtu.be/5Q1cfjh6VfE

I don't see what's so bad about those ads. In fact, they seem pretty good to me. He's running in Georgia. Not NYC, DC, or the Atlas Forum mock election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Before all the tape stuff came out, I thought Cagle was more electable than Kemp, but now the reverse is true.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I feel like an idiot for asking this, but I can't remember whether it's Cagle or Kemp who is seen as the un-electable idiot who'd actually give Abrams a good shot at winning.

Brian Kemp

https://youtu.be/4ABRz_epvic

https://youtu.be/5Q1cfjh6VfE

I don't see what's so bad about those ads. In fact, they seem pretty good to me. He's running in Georgia. Not NYC, DC, or the Atlas Forum mock election.

A whole lot of Georgia doesn't fit the rural Southern stereotype anymore. 

[Rookie Yinzer]

I feel like an idiot for asking this, but I can't remember whether it's Cagle or Kemp who is seen as the un-electable idiot who'd actually give Abrams a good shot at winning.

Brian Kemp

https://youtu.be/4ABRz_epvic

https://youtu.be/5Q1cfjh6VfE

I don't see what's so bad about those ads. In fact, they seem pretty good to me. He's running in Georgia. Not NYC, DC, or the Atlas Forum mock election.

The outrage centered on him pointing a gun at a teenager (this was immediately post-Parkland) and in the second ad there was hullabaloo over him saying he was going to use his pick up truck to round up illegals. It was around the same time as State Sen. Michael Williams’ deportation bus fiasco* so it received pushback.

*Deportation Bus ad:

https://youtu.be/5Ktq183lSWk

[IceSpear]

I feel like an idiot for asking this, but I can't remember whether it's Cagle or Kemp who is seen as the un-electable idiot who'd actually give Abrams a good shot at winning.

Brian Kemp

https://youtu.be/4ABRz_epvic

https://youtu.be/5Q1cfjh6VfE

I don't see what's so bad about those ads. In fact, they seem pretty good to me. He's running in Georgia. Not NYC, DC, or the Atlas Forum mock election.

A whole lot of Georgia doesn't fit the rural Southern stereotype anymore. 

Enough still does to win though, especially with the runoff handicap.

Anyway, I've always gotten a lot of crap for thinking Obama, Nunn, Carter, and Hillary weren't going to win in GA. So I'm staying put in "believe it when I see it" mode. With that said, it would not be particularly surprising to me if Abrams did better than all the aforementioned people.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Nunn and Carter ran as moderates scared to declare position on the major issues.

Obama overperformed with blacks but got swamped in the white suburbs.

Hillary had poor black turnout and didn’t really contest it. Priorities USA ran ads on black/Urban radio telling people to vote against Trump.

Georgia has only gotten more diverse since 2008, Abrams will have massive investment in black voters and Spanish first language voters, a favorable national environment where whites in the burbs may break for the Democrat, and potentially a candidate who will depress rural turnout.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I feel like an idiot for asking this, but I can't remember whether it's Cagle or Kemp who is seen as the un-electable idiot who'd actually give Abrams a good shot at winning.

Brian Kemp

https://youtu.be/4ABRz_epvic

https://youtu.be/5Q1cfjh6VfE

I don't see what's so bad about those ads. In fact, they seem pretty good to me. He's running in Georgia. Not NYC, DC, or the Atlas Forum mock election.

The outrage centered on him pointing a gun at a teenager (this was immediately post-Parkland) and in the second ad there was hullabaloo over him saying he was going to use his pick up truck to round up illegals. It was around the same time as State Sen. Michael Williams’ deportation bus fiasco* so it received pushback.

*Deportation Bus ad:

https://youtu.be/5Ktq183lSWk

Also Kemp's ads with the teenager are just strange and silly more than anything.

[libertpaulian]

I feel like an idiot for asking this, but I can't remember whether it's Cagle or Kemp who is seen as the un-electable idiot who'd actually give Abrams a good shot at winning.

Brian Kemp

https://youtu.be/4ABRz_epvic

https://youtu.be/5Q1cfjh6VfE

I don't see what's so bad about those ads. In fact, they seem pretty good to me. He's running in Georgia. Not NYC, DC, or the Atlas Forum mock election.

The outrage centered on him pointing a gun at a teenager (this was immediately post-Parkland) and in the second ad there was hullabaloo over him saying he was going to use his pick up truck to round up illegals. It was around the same time as State Sen. Michael Williams’ deportation bus fiasco* so it received pushback.

*Deportation Bus ad:

https://youtu.be/5Ktq183lSWk

Also Kemp's ads with the teenager are just strange and silly more than anything.

Honestly, I don't really see the outrage.  It's a combination of three major aspects of Southern culture: 1) masculinity, 2) chivalry, and of course, 3) guns.

[Podgy the Bear]

Nunn and Carter ran as moderates scared to declare position on the major issues.

Obama overperformed with blacks but got swamped in the white suburbs.

Hillary had poor black turnout and didn’t really contest it. Priorities USA ran ads on black/Urban radio telling people to vote against Trump.

Georgia has only gotten more diverse since 2008, Abrams will have massive investment in black voters and Spanish first language voters, a favorable national environment where whites in the burbs may break for the Democrat, and potentially a candidate who will depress rural turnout.

Abrams will overperform percentage-wise with her base and nationally, the trend is favorable to Democrats.  But the absolute numbers are critical, and her base doesn't turn out for mid-year elections. 

I have said this before--she needs to go to those hostile areas in the state and pick up votes.    This is how Obama won states like Iowa.  And it's how Robert Kennedy won the Senate election in New York in 1964.  He was accused of being a carpetbagger and was running against a popular Republican incumbent and was no shoo-in to win.    He campaigned hard in the rural parts of the state and picked up enough support there and then provided his margin of victory by winning easily in New York City. 

Abrams has the capability to do the same--reduce the margin in those difficult areas and crush the Republican nominee in Atlanta.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I agree with you and think she has been doing that. She was in freaking Dahlonega not too long ago giving a speech on banning bump stocks and assault weapons to a crowd full of white people cheering her name.

She says in all her stump speeches that she's been to 155 out of 159 counties, and been to counties where folks kindly warn her she shouldn't be caught there after dark. I expect to see her in every crevice of this state over the next few months. I hope she does another bus tour this fall. The fantastic thing about it is that she held those rallies in strategic locations so that voters could go to their early voting location after hearing her give a rousing speech. The one she did in the primary was focused on the Metro and the heavily black areas in and around Macon, Albany, and Augusta. I want to see her down in Valdosta, on the coast, along the I-16 corridor, and in the mountains.

[Zaybay]

Nunn and Carter ran as moderates scared to declare position on the major issues.

Obama overperformed with blacks but got swamped in the white suburbs.

Hillary had poor black turnout and didn’t really contest it. Priorities USA ran ads on black/Urban radio telling people to vote against Trump.

Georgia has only gotten more diverse since 2008, Abrams will have massive investment in black voters and Spanish first language voters, a favorable national environment where whites in the burbs may break for the Democrat, and potentially a candidate who will depress rural turnout.

Abrams will overperform percentage-wise with her base and nationally, the trend is favorable to Democrats.  But the absolute numbers are critical, and her base doesn't turn out for mid-year elections. 

I have said this before--she needs to go to those hostile areas in the state and pick up votes.    This is how Obama won states like Iowa.And it's how Robert Kennedy won the Senate election in New York in 1964.  He was accused of being a carpetbagger and was running against a popular Republican incumbent and was no shoo-in to win.    He campaigned hard in the rural parts of the state and picked up enough support there and then provided his margin of victory by winning easily in New York City. 

Abrams has the capability to do the same--reduce the margin in those difficult areas and crush the Republican nominee in Atlanta.

I'm sorry, that really bothered me. Iowa is not hostile D territory. One election does not a state make.

Anyway, your partially right on the strategy needed by Abrams. But the most important part is to get the suburbs on her side. These areas have the most votes and were the R base. If she can flip counties like Cobb, then she is golden.
Also, AAs have rather good turnout in midterms. Its mostly Hispanic voters that drop off.

[Podgy the Bear]

Nunn and Carter ran as moderates scared to declare position on the major issues.

Obama overperformed with blacks but got swamped in the white suburbs.

Hillary had poor black turnout and didn’t really contest it. Priorities USA ran ads on black/Urban radio telling people to vote against Trump.

Georgia has only gotten more diverse since 2008, Abrams will have massive investment in black voters and Spanish first language voters, a favorable national environment where whites in the burbs may break for the Democrat, and potentially a candidate who will depress rural turnout.

Abrams will overperform percentage-wise with her base and nationally, the trend is favorable to Democrats.  But the absolute numbers are critical, and her base doesn't turn out for mid-year elections.  

I have said this before--she needs to go to those hostile areas in the state and pick up votes.    This is how Obama won states like Iowa.And it's how Robert Kennedy won the Senate election in New York in 1964.  He was accused of being a carpetbagger and was running against a popular Republican incumbent and was no shoo-in to win.    He campaigned hard in the rural parts of the state and picked up enough support there and then provided his margin of victory by winning easily in New York City.  

Abrams has the capability to do the same--reduce the margin in those difficult areas and crush the Republican nominee in Atlanta.

I'm sorry, that really bothered me. Iowa is not hostile D territory. One election does not a state make.

Anyway, your partially right on the strategy needed by Abrams. But the most important part is to get the suburbs on her side. These areas have the most votes and were the R base. If she can flip counties like Cobb, then she is golden.
Also, AAs have rather good turnout in midterms. Its mostly Hispanic voters that drop off.

Read the article in the Nation (https://www.thenation.com/article/guy-iowa-knows-democrats-can-win-back-rural-america/) and you'll see what I'm talking about.

"When Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, he took 45 percent of the rural vote nationwide. In Iowa, a state that is often seen as a bellwether for measuring the sentiments of farm country and small-town America, Obama carried the rural regions of the state. Of the state’s 99 counties, Obama won 53.

When Hillary Clinton lost the presidency in 2016, she secured just 33 percent of the rural vote nationwide. In Iowa, Clinton lost the rural regions of the state by 30 points. The Democrat carried just six of the state’s 99 counties."

Obama knew this about Iowa--campaigned in all 99 counties and did well.  Hillary and her out of touch handlers did not.  That's what I am happy to see what Stacey Abrams is doing.  Campaigning in places like Dahlonega (Lumpkin County where Hillary received a pathetic 17 percent of the vote when her husband won the county 24 years earlier) will go a long way to win a difficult race.

[Podgy the Bear]

And yes, Georgia is more urban/suburban than Iowa, but it's substantially rural as well.

[Zaybay]

Nunn and Carter ran as moderates scared to declare position on the major issues.

Obama overperformed with blacks but got swamped in the white suburbs.

Hillary had poor black turnout and didn’t really contest it. Priorities USA ran ads on black/Urban radio telling people to vote against Trump.

Georgia has only gotten more diverse since 2008, Abrams will have massive investment in black voters and Spanish first language voters, a favorable national environment where whites in the burbs may break for the Democrat, and potentially a candidate who will depress rural turnout.

Abrams will overperform percentage-wise with her base and nationally, the trend is favorable to Democrats.  But the absolute numbers are critical, and her base doesn't turn out for mid-year elections. 

I have said this before--she needs to go to those hostile areas in the state and pick up votes.    This is how Obama won states like Iowa.And it's how Robert Kennedy won the Senate election in New York in 1964.  He was accused of being a carpetbagger and was running against a popular Republican incumbent and was no shoo-in to win.    He campaigned hard in the rural parts of the state and picked up enough support there and then provided his margin of victory by winning easily in New York City. 

Abrams has the capability to do the same--reduce the margin in those difficult areas and crush the Republican nominee in Atlanta.

I'm sorry, that really bothered me. Iowa is not hostile D territory. One election does not a state make.

Anyway, your partially right on the strategy needed by Abrams. But the most important part is to get the suburbs on her side. These areas have the most votes and were the R base. If she can flip counties like Cobb, then she is golden.
Also, AAs have rather good turnout in midterms. Its mostly Hispanic voters that drop off.

Read the article in the Nation (https://www.thenation.com/article/guy-iowa-knows-democrats-can-win-back-rural-america/) and you'll see what I'm talking about.

"When Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, he took 45 percent of the rural vote nationwide. In Iowa, a state that is often seen as a bellwether for measuring the sentiments of farm country and small-town America, Obama carried the rural regions of the state. Of the state’s 99 counties, Obama won 53.

When Hillary Clinton lost the presidency in 2016, she secured just 33 percent of the rural vote nationwide. In Iowa, Clinton lost the rural regions of the state by 30 points. The Democrat carried just six of the state’s 99 counties.

Obama knew this about Iowa--campaigned in all 99 counties and did well.  Hillary and her out of touch handlers did not.  That's what I am happy to see what Stacey Abrams is doing.  Campaigning in places like Dahlonega (Lumpkin County where Hillary received a pathetic 17 percent of the vote when her husband won the county 24 years earlier) will go a long way to win a difficult race.

Sorry, this is my bad. I thought you said that the state of Iowa was hostile to Democrats.

[QAnonKelly]

Speaking of demographics, is this the last time GA will vote statewide as a majority white state? It could very well be majority minority by the time of the pres/senate elections in 2020.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Speaking of demographics, is this the last time GA will vote statewide as a majority white state? It could very well be majority minority by the time of the pres/senate elections in 2020.

GA isn’t expected to be majority minority until 2025 and even with that whites will still be overperforming their population share in the electorate so it will be majority white for a bit after that. But once the white electorate share gets down to <55% it won’t be enough to keep it from flipping D.

[wesmoorenerd]

Speaking of demographics, is this the last time GA will vote statewide as a majority white state? It could very well be majority minority by the time of the pres/senate elections in 2020.

GA isn’t expected to be majority minority until 2025 and even with that whites will still be overperforming their population share in the electorate so it will be majority white for a bit after that. But once the white electorate share gets down to <55% it won’t be enough to keep it from flipping D.

I've got to imagine the white population of GA isn't as solidly Republican as the white population of, say, Alabama. Within urban Atlanta and even the suburban counties around it I've got to imagine white voters aren't monolithic.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Speaking of demographics, is this the last time GA will vote statewide as a majority white state? It could very well be majority minority by the time of the pres/senate elections in 2020.

GA isn’t expected to be majority minority until 2025 and even with that whites will still be overperforming their population share in the electorate so it will be majority white for a bit after that. But once the white electorate share gets down to <55% it won’t be enough to keep it from flipping D.

I've got to imagine the white population of GA isn't as solidly Republican as the white population of, say, Alabama. Within urban Atlanta and even the suburban counties around it I've got to imagine white voters aren't monolithic.

Not monolithic but the Republican is going to get 77-78 percent of the white vote. The white portion of the electorate is around 60 percent (Non-Hispanic whites are 54 percent of the population per a speech I heard Abrams give lol). So that puts the base number for GOP at 46 percent. Getting 10 percent of the black vote and 30-35 percent of everyone else gets them to 50. Once they get to <55% of the electorate that 77% white vote will drift farther from 50.

In the meantime Abrams will have to do this weird balancing act of boosting black portion of the electorate (or holding them at 30 percent and getting Obama margins with them), cutting into white suburbia, hoping rural whites are disaffected and stay home (or her economic and healthcare message resonates with them), and pull out low propensity D-leaning/new Latinos and Asians to skew the non-black/white vote more Democratic. She herself is very analytical and obsessed with data so I can see her campaign doing it.

[Adam Griffin]

LOL, Cagle is desperate. Their campaign is basically counting on people not hearing anything from Kemp's campaign about the issue - or even bothering to read to the bottom of their own email where they included the original Kemp message!

(All included in one email, shortened for simplicity)

[Del Tachi]

The GOP runoff has quickly become a race to the bottom, even more so than a lot of other GOP nominating contests this year.

Kemp will still be the better governor than Cagle or Abrams, and he is going to be able to successfully pivot in the GE.

[RogueBeaver]

Kemp up 44/41 in the latest AJC poll.