Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[QAnonKelly]

Cagle keeps digging himself deeper and deeper. Maybe he and Scott Pruitt can start a lobbyist real estate business eventually lol

[Rookie Yinzer]

Pres. Griff, does the black portion of the electorate typically grow or decline from primaries to general? AJC posted a bunch of numbers provided by a guy working Lucy McBath’s campaign. Lots of interesting info there. One point made was that black voters made up 29 percent of all ballots cast, which shows Abrams needs some work to do because that number needs to be higher to have a legitimate chance in November.

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-may-two-thirds-new-voters-chose-democratic-ballots/tgoN7YbezhoI3rrkg4ZyhK/?utm_source=politics_fb&utm_medium=social

Other info in the numbers:
-2/3 of new voters pulled Democratic ballots
-14 percent of Democratic voters voted in at least one Republican Primary since 2010, and 14 percent for Republicans who pulled at least one Dem ballot since 2010. The R-> D voters were concentrated in Metro Atlanta while the D-> R voters were in South Georgia where the post-2002 realignment is finally settling in.
-Blacks made up 60 percent of the Dem Primary, 1 percent of the GOP
-Unsurprisingly new (never voted) Dem voters were concentrated in Districts 4,5,6,7, and 13. The highest number of new (never voted) GOP voters was in District 9.

[Adam Griffin]

Pres. Griff, does the black portion of the electorate typically grow or decline from primaries to general?

Statewide? Well, I don't actually know off the top of my head the comparisons for all recent elections, but in 2014:

Black % of Total Primary: 24.7%
Black % of DEM Primary: 65.6%
Black % of Carter's vote: 58.2%*

* Based on SoS turnout figures by race & 2014 exit polls pegging Carter's black support @ 89%

So at least 4 years ago, the black share of the Democratic electorate decreased between the primary and the general. This makes sense, given that black Democratic voters disproportionately live in areas where Democrats dominate - and therefore the Democratic primary is the de-facto general election - and white Democratic voters disproportionately live in areas where Republicans dominate - and therefore are more likely to pull GOP primary ballots to influence inevitable outcomes.

It's also not too surprising to see the share of the statewide Democratic electorate that is black decrease compared to 2014; as I said prior to the primary, there was lots of non-black enthusiasm brewing and it made sense that it would manifest in the primary. Despite what some might say and irrespective of the debate over "old" and "new" strategies for victory, a winning statewide Democratic electorate will not be two-thirds black (and probably not much over half).

I'm glad we finally got some data, though. It looks like it'll be at least another 2-3 weeks before SoS publishes the breakdowns.

[Adam Griffin]

^^ Oh, and I misread your comment about the 29% (was thinking that was the black share of the electorate for CD 6 for some reason). I went ahead and edited above; that same number was a bit under 25% in 2014.

Realistically, I guess we won't know for sure until the detailed breakdowns emerge. Based on the figures we do have available, raw black turnout definitely increased, but was offset and then some by non-black first-time voters. It's weird to think about it; that 1) raw black vote increased, 2) black share of total primary electorate (DEM+GOP) increased, and 3) black share of DEM primary decreased. That's the only thing that can explain those three things happening. We're not used to seeing that in GA.

Georgia is a state where black turnout in elections is about as high as can be realistically expected when factoring in discrepancies in age (the younger a group, the blacker said group is) and especially voting eligibility due to incarceration/parole/probation (something like 1 in 6 black adults in GA cannot vote due to this).

When you control for this, you come to the conclusion that the black vote is already operating at like 125% of parity: how much more can realistically be squeezed out? To put it in perspective, among eligible adult citizens, blacks have greater representation than whites at the ballot box pound-for-pound, at least as far as votes go.

We've been in the 28-30% range for every election since 2008, and exactly 30% in the past 3 presidentials. To be at 29% in a primary is good compared to 4 years ago. So, there very well may be more black voters (however, I'd hypothesize that increase in raw black turnout this year was fueled by people who usually vote in midterms/presidentials but not in primaries), but being the same share of the electorate (or even less) isn't a death sentence for Democrats given that a) blacks are very close to being maxed out realistically and b) lots of new Democratic voters are emerging that are not black, thereby adding Democratic votes but reducing overall black share of one or both electorates.

This will increasingly become the case as the "third way voters" (Latinos, Asians and other non-whites) increasingly begin voting and/or suburban whites defect from the GOP.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Adam Griffin]

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LOCK HIM UP
LOCK HIM UP



But seriously, though...damnit, this is happening too soon. When I said he'd be David Vitter 2.0, I meant it. Alas, he's probably not going to make it to the general now.

[Adam Griffin]

Also, while the term "David Vitter 2.0" was inspired by multiple things, I originally coined it because many years ago, there were rumors that he was banging all sorts of hookers. At one point, it was publicly discussed but nothing ever came of it; mainly through state political blogs and the like rather than major media outlets. Now that I'm googling it and trying to find old articles, I cannot find any.

Has Cagle threatened legal action against anybody who reported on his alleged hooker ongoings and forced them to take the content down, or am I just not searching properly?

EDIT: maybe it was just infidelity rather than hookers. However, I do remember looking at his campaign finance reports and seeing gobs of money going to Dewberry.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/claim-cagle-overpaid-staffer-to-hide-affair/241639791
http://therealcaseycagle.blogspot.com/2010/10/casey-cagle-affair.html

[ON Progressive]

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If only these stories could have come out sooner. Kemp's probably going to win the primary easily at this rate.

[KingSweden]

I’m 100% comfortable calling Kemp the clear favorite now

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’m 100% comfortable calling Kemp the clear favorite now

Yeah, I'm moving it to Lean Kemp.

[Rookie Yinzer]

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FFs!

[libertpaulian]

Given that both candidates seem to want to out-right-wing the other, it's hard to tell which one gives Ms. Abrams the advantage.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Were there any exit polls in Georgia during the 2012 Presidential Election? I wanted play around with some numbers and I was thinking that best case scenario for Abrams with black voters would Obama's 2012 performance. His 98-2 showing in the 2008 Exit polls seem a little out of reach for Abrams lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Were there any exit polls in Georgia during the 2012 Presidential Election? I wanted play around with some numbers and I was thinking that best case scenario for Abrams with black voters would Obama's 2012 performance. His 98-2 showing in the 2008 Exit polls seem a little out of reach for Abrams lol.

There was an exit poll for the Republican primary, but I don't think there was one for the general election.

[Adam Griffin]

Were there any exit polls in Georgia during the 2012 Presidential Election? I wanted play around with some numbers and I was thinking that best case scenario for Abrams with black voters would Obama's 2012 performance. His 98-2 showing in the 2008 Exit polls seem a little out of reach for Abrams lol.

When I did the county-by-county national breakdowns of the white vote for 2012, Georgia was one of the few states where I really got to refine my estimates due to the Secretary of State's recorded data by race, gender, age and precinct, and check my work.

Based on turnout in many counties where it's all black and white (no pun intended) allowing me to refine said estimates and comparing them (and the rest of the state) to the SoS data and results, Obama received 19.6% of the white vote and 94.5% of the black vote in my calculations.

[wesmoorenerd]

Both GOP candidates are looking awful (Cagle with the scandals and Kemp with the faux right wing hillbilly shotgun nonsense) and Dems have a great standard bearer - and Cook STILL HAS THIS RACE AT SAFE R.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Both GOP candidates are looking awful (Cagle with the scandals and Kemp with the faux right wing hillbilly shotgun nonsense) and Dems have a great standard bearer - and Cook STILL HAS THIS RACE AT SAFE R.

They may be waiting for the runoff before making any adjustment.

[Maxwell]

uhhh yeah but have you heard of the Bradley effect?!?!?

[wesmoorenerd]

Both GOP candidates are looking awful (Cagle with the scandals and Kemp with the faux right wing hillbilly shotgun nonsense) and Dems have a great standard bearer - and Cook STILL HAS THIS RACE AT SAFE R.

They may be waiting for the runoff before making any adjustment.

That's what they're doing, but that doesn't change anything. It's a Likely/Lean R race with either candidate.

[ON Progressive]

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/why-kentucky-town-spotlight-georgia-governor-race/wf3mlriT9gqBvBACDoFfXI/

Brian Kemp's involvement in Hart AgStrong is getting scrutinized now, and it is not good.

[OneJ]

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/why-kentucky-town-spotlight-georgia-governor-race/wf3mlriT9gqBvBACDoFfXI/

Brian Kemp's involvement in Hart AgStrong is getting scrutinized now, and it is not good.

Looks to me that both of them are actively trying to allow Abrams to sneak up on either of them.

[Young Conservative]

Just for the record, I accidentally red the map using non-Atlas colors, hence my comments, I'm sorry....whoops....still not a plausible map though.

Bro did you seriously think Abrams was winning white rural Georgia while losing both the black belt and the Atlanta-metro in that map?

haha that's why I thought the map was insane

[Adam Griffin]

C'mon Kemp: damage yourself enough so we can put Cagle back into the game!

[Del Tachi]

The Hart AgStrong stuff is a nothing-burger that won't stick with voters because its too hard to follow.  Cagle's scandal is much more potent. 

[Young Conservative]

The Hart AgStrong stuff is a nothing-burger that won't stick with voters because its too hard to follow.  Cagle's scandal is much more potent.