Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a transcript of the conversation between Tippins and Cagle: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/read-transcript-secret-recording-cagle-backing-bad-public-policy/JATmPKxlNgBuqGpIPyr2XO/

This story is getting a fair amount of attention in the Atlanta media, and if it holds up through the runoff it might be enough to give Kemp the win.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Wow... that's worse than I thought. Kemp will be the nominee.

[OneJ]

Wow... that's worse than I thought. Kemp will be the nominee.

Lol. That “pro-choice” part really got me.

[Del Tachi]

Wow... that's worse than I thought. Kemp will be the nominee.

Kemp was going to be the nominee anyway because a 12-year lieutenant governor who only gets 38% of the vote in the first round is an extremely weak candidate.

Think about that, Casey Cagle had twelve years to build a brand as Georgia's heir apparent.  The fact that he even attracted considerable opposition in the GOP primary is pretty remarkable.

However, I will say that whoever wins the runoff will be the candidate who is most able to capture Hunter Hill's former supporters in the Atlanta suburbs.  Based on the way that Kemp and Cagle had been running their campaigns, one would think that Cagle would be able to win most of these voters but the Tippins recordings throw a major wrench into that calculation.   

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Wow... that's worse than I thought. Kemp will be the nominee.

Kemp was going to be the nominee anyway because a 12-year lieutenant governor who only gets 38% of the vote in the first round is an extremely weak candidate.

Think about that, Casey Cagle had twelve years to build a brand as Georgia's heir apparent.  The fact that he even attracted considerable opposition in the GOP primary is pretty remarkable.

However, I will say that whoever wins the runoff will be the candidate who is most able to capture Hunter Hill's former supporters in the Atlanta suburbs.  Based on the way that Kemp and Cagle had been running their campaigns, one would think that Cagle would be able to win most of these voters but the Tippins recordings throw a major wrench into that calculation.   

Yeah, I thought Kemp would win by 3 before this... now I can see him winning by double digits.

[KingSweden]

Having read the transcript, it’s actually worse than I imagined.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I’m going to revel in the downfall of Corrupt Casey. Like, at least win the nomination before you get exposed when you think you’re owed the office. Lol.

[QAnonKelly]

Agreed everyone. The transcript is actually worse and I thought Kemp was gonna win before this but this sealed the deal. Kemp has had the momentum for a while and Cagle underperformed in the primary bigly.

[BBD]

Keeps getting better and better for Stacey Abrams.

[Young Conservative]

Having read the transcript, it’s actually worse than I imagined.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cagle plays defense in an interview with the AJC and Channel 2.

[Politician]

Primary: Lean Cagle->Tossup

[KingSweden]

Primary: Lean Cagle->Tossup

IMO this is generous to Cagle

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

At this time, Abrams should pull out a narrow victory. Could get wider later in the year.

[wesmoorenerd]

At this time, Abrams should pull out a narrow victory. Could get wider later in the year.

I think that's a bit too generous to Abrams. It's a solidly Lean R race now. She does have momentum and I think she's very well within range to pull off a victory, but I don't think that would happen if the election were to be held today.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Fayette, Meriwether, Wilkes, Screven, McIntosh, Houston, Bulloch, Echols, Lowndes, and Brooks are not flipping.

[Young Conservative]

At this time, Abrams should pull out a narrow victory. Could get wider later in the year.

This map is among the most ridiculous I have seen. This would be a landslide for Abrams, which, even if she wins, won't happen because Georgia is inelastic.

[Dr. Arch]

At this time, Abrams should pull out a narrow victory. Could get wider later in the year.

This map is among the most ridiculous I have seen. This would be a landslide for Abrams, which, even if she wins, won't happen because Georgia is inelastic.

<2% win = Landslide? lol

[GeorgiaModerate]

At this time, Abrams should pull out a narrow victory. Could get wider later in the year.

This map is among the most ridiculous I have seen. This would be a landslide for Abrams, which, even if she wins, won't happen because Georgia is inelastic.

Georgia is relatively inelastic, but I think it's becoming more elastic due to an influx of young, educated people.  I still think the governor race is Lean R at this point, but the map above is within the reasonable range of outcomes.

[Politician]

At this time, Abrams should pull out a narrow victory. Could get wider later in the year.

This map is among the most ridiculous I have seen. This would be a landslide for Abrams, which, even if she wins, won't happen because Georgia is inelastic.

<2% win = Landslide? lol

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

At this time, Abrams should pull out a narrow victory. Could get wider later in the year.

This map is among the most ridiculous I have seen. This would be a landslide for Abrams, which, even if she wins, won't happen because Georgia is inelastic.

<2% win = Landslide? lol

That map is not a <2% win, despite the map-maker's believe to the contrary.

[Young Conservative]

Just for the record, I accidentally red the map using non-Atlas colors, hence my comments, I'm sorry....whoops....still not a plausible map though.

[Adam Griffin]

A narrow Democratic win in 2018 probably looks something like this:



The "peripheral expansion counties" as I call them (places like Meriwether, McIntosh, Wilkes, etc) are hard to predict, but I think they have a much better chance of all going GOP even with a statewide D win at this point than even 1 of them going D (Meriwether may be the exception to that). The SW portion of the Black Belt is collapsing fast, too: it's possible none of those D>40% counties goes to Abrams even in a statewide victory.

Brooks is a difficult one to predict. There were great things happening there several years ago, but ever since the GOP crushed the rebellion, it has slid substantially back toward the GOP. In a good year, though, it has the potential to flip.

[Gass3268]

Cagle bought a condo from lobbyist

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[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Cagle bought a condo from lobbyist

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Cagle is probably a worse candidate than Kemp now lmao