Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Kemp releases first ad. It is about illegal immigration.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gx7TsHCH35w

[QAnonKelly]

Running on culture wars in a state that’s almost majority minority and where you’re losing more educated white people each cycle is sooooooo smart.

/s

[windjammer]

Bacon King, Griffin and any other Georgians: how optimistic are you about 2018?

[QAnonKelly]

I'm pretty optimistic about it. I think Gov is probably out of reach still but it's closer than it was a week ago. Barrow has a decent shot at it and probably AG too.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Bacon King, Griffin and any other Georgians: how optimistic are you about 2018?

We kinda blew the Gov. race by running meh candidates in Abrams/Evans. With Jason Carter we’d be looking at a toss-up. Downballot we’ve also failed to recruit good candidates for Lieutenant Governor or Attorney General. But Barrow has a pretty good chance at Secretary of State, which would benefit the party in the long-term with that position’s power over elections.

[QAnonKelly]

Bacon King, Griffin and any other Georgians: how optimistic are you about 2018?

We kinda blew the Gov. race by running meh candidates in Abrams/Evans. With Jason Carter we’d be looking at a toss-up. Downballot we’ve also failed to recruit good candidates for Lieutenant Governor or Attorney General. But Barrow has a pretty good chance at Secretary of State, which would benefit the party in the long-term with that position’s power over elections.

I agree. I don’t think too much is gonna change till 2020

[Del Tachi]

Running on culture wars in a state that’s almost majority minority and where you’re losing more educated white people each cycle is sooooooo smart.

/s

Kemp is trying to win the Republican primary, not the GE at this point.

Stacey Abrams is also dumb for running as the #woke Instagram poet candidate in a state that is still fundamentally Southern and conservative.

[Adam Griffin]

Bacon King, Griffin and any other Georgians: how optimistic are you about 2018?

Not particularly. We'll need more polls to get a real idea of what's happening, but I'm not very confident that outer metro ATL is going to behave in 2018 how it did in 2016. Even if it did, that alone wouldn't be enough - you need a real rural rebound for 2018 victory regardless of what various candidates claim. Also, look at state legislative special elections for an idea: some have overperformed expectations (and even flipped), but a good chunk have performed exactly as expected (i.e. several points worse than in a normal election cycle).

You also have the uncanny reality of GA behaving contrary to the national climate (at least in the gubernatorial elections) for the past 5 cycles; whenever the country swings left, GA swings right; and vice-versa. Of course this isn't a guarantee, but there's clear precedent for GA to ignore the national climate in midterm elections relative to its past performance.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Bacon King, Griffin and any other Georgians: how optimistic are you about 2018?

Not particularly. We'll need more polls to get a real idea of what's happening, but I'm not very confident that outer metro ATL is going to behave in 2018 how it did in 2016. Even if it did, that alone wouldn't be enough - you need a real rural rebound for 2018 victory regardless of what various candidates claim. Also, look at state legislative special elections for an idea: some have overperformed expectations (and even flipped), but a good chunk have performed exactly as expected (i.e. several points worse than in a normal election cycle).

You also have the uncanny reality of GA behaving contrary to the national climate (at least in the gubernatorial elections) for the past 5 cycles; whenever the country swings left, GA swings right; and vice-versa. Of course this isn't a guarantee, but there's clear precedent for GA to ignore the national climate in midterm elections relative to its past performance.

Do you think we have a shot at picking up GA-7 or the SoS office?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey Abrams is also dumb for running as the #woke Instagram poet candidate in a state that is still fundamentally Southern and conservative.

She’s really not. Running to the left of draconian right wing policies is not being a “woke instagram poet”. Or shall we continue to criminalize poverty, suppress voters, and deny people healthcare?

[Del Tachi]

Stacey Abrams is also dumb for running as the #woke Instagram poet candidate in a state that is still fundamentally Southern and conservative.

She’s really not. Running to the left of draconian right wing policies is not being a “woke instagram poet”. Or shall we continue to criminalize poverty, suppress voters, and deny people healthcare?

Running to be the first female POC elected governor of a U.S. state is not a policy position. 

[QAnonKelly]

https://madmimi.com/p/1660db/preview


>KEMP RELEASES PLAN TO ESTABLISH CRIMINAL ALIEN DATABASE, STREAMLINE DEPORTATIONS IN GEORGIA

What a lunatic

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gun control activist Lucy McBath, who was originally going to challenge state Rep. Sam Teasley (HD-37), will now run for the GA-06 Congressional seat: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/high-profile-gun-control-advocate-enters-georgia-6th-district-race/yR5JoktI4q7Enh41Lpk2ZL/

[libertpaulian]

Gun control activist Lucy McBath, who was originally going to challenge state Rep. Sam Teasley (HD-37), will now run for the GA-06 Congressional seat: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/high-profile-gun-control-advocate-enters-georgia-6th-district-race/yR5JoktI4q7Enh41Lpk2ZL/

If she wins the primary, the Dems deserve to lose this race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gun control activist Lucy McBath, who was originally going to challenge state Rep. Sam Teasley (HD-37), will now run for the GA-06 Congressional seat: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/high-profile-gun-control-advocate-enters-georgia-6th-district-race/yR5JoktI4q7Enh41Lpk2ZL/

If she wins the primary, the Dems deserve to lose this race.

I'll be shocked if she wins.

[Rookie Yinzer]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/03/06/donors-launch-2-5-million-push-elect-georgias-first-african-american-governor/399282002/

Stacey Abrams is also dumb for running as the #woke Instagram poet candidate in a state that is still fundamentally Southern and conservative.

She’s really not. Running to the left of draconian right wing policies is not being a “woke instagram poet”. Or shall we continue to criminalize poverty, suppress voters, and deny people healthcare?

Running to be the first female POC elected governor of a U.S. state is not a policy position. 

This is preposterous. Her race and gender are fact. She has not mentioned it in one advertisement or policy proposal. Sounds more like projection from those who can't see past those basic facts about her. Let's not pretend that the right would not be hyper aware of this regardless of if she ran her campaign like a mealy-mouthed centrist afraid to rock the boat.

[Young Conservative]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/03/06/donors-launch-2-5-million-push-elect-georgias-first-african-american-governor/399282002/

"San Francisco elites try to buy the Georgia statehouse"

Get ready for the GOP to send that out in fundraising emails.

[QAnonKelly]

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/03/why-the-hell-are-we-standing-down/


Our boy Brian Kemp strikes again. Didn’t want to comply with the Federal Government’s attempts to secure the elections from Russian interference

[GeorgiaModerate]

Development in the LG race:

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[Adam Griffin]

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/03/why-the-hell-are-we-standing-down/


Our boy Brian Kemp strikes again. Didn’t want to comply with the Federal Government’s attempts to secure the elections from Russian interference

I give kudos to Kemp for playing the long-game here. In many ways, he began to do a complete 180 in 2014 (starting with the New Georgia Project fiasco) to position himself for winning a statewide Republican primary. It sounds pretty crazy considering, but I even briefly considered voting for Kemp in 2014 prior to that year's primary - and he was the only Republican for whom I even entertained this notion. This was the guy who personally pushed for (and secured) online voter registration in Georgia, got opt-out AVR adopted and implemented a complete overhaul of the SoS website that is 100x more transparent and easy-to-use than it was prior to his tenure.

As I said a few pages prior, the campaign personas of the two front-runners each belong in reality to their primary opponent. Kemp is not a reactionary conservative by any means, but he's playing one to get the nod. Cagle is very much a reactionary conservative, but has been blessed with the establishment's support by virtue of his extended incumbency (though obviously he too has now started playing the out-right-the-right game).

[Rookie Yinzer]

Just found out that someone who is a family friend is challenging Rep. Gerald Greene (R) in a majority-black district in rural SW Georgia. Hillary won here 52-46, and Obama 2012 won here 56-43 (!) so clearly Abrams should provide enough coattails to help her over the line. Abrams will be opening two field offices down there in the coming weeks so I suspect the Democratic presence in the community to be strong over the next 8 months presuming Abrams wins the primary of course .

[GlobeSoc]

Just found out that someone who is a family friend is challenging Rep. Gerald Greene (R) in a majority-black district in rural SW Georgia. Hillary won here 52-46, and Obama 2012 won here 56-43 (!) so clearly Abrams should provide enough coattails to help her over the line. Abrams will be opening two field offices down there in the coming weeks so I suspect the Democratic presence in the community to be strong over the next 8 months presuming Abrams wins the primary of course .

>Republican in majority black district

Lolwut

[Rookie Yinzer]

Just found out that someone who is a family friend is challenging Rep. Gerald Greene (R) in a majority-black district in rural SW Georgia. Hillary won here 52-46, and Obama 2012 won here 56-43 (!) so clearly Abrams should provide enough coattails to help her over the line. Abrams will be opening two field offices down there in the coming weeks so I suspect the Democratic presence in the community to be strong over the next 8 months presuming Abrams wins the primary of course .

>Republican in majority black district

Lolwut

He switched from Democrat to Republican after he won re-election in 2010, and didn't have a serious challenger during Presidential years. He only won by 7 in 2014 with black turnout down. Don't see how he escapes this time with Trump mid-term + black woman at the top of the ticket (potentially).

[Torrain]

Just found out that someone who is a family friend is challenging Rep. Gerald Greene (R) in a majority-black district in rural SW Georgia. Hillary won here 52-46, and Obama 2012 won here 56-43 (!) so clearly Abrams should provide enough coattails to help her over the line. Abrams will be opening two field offices down there in the coming weeks so I suspect the Democratic presence in the community to be strong over the next 8 months presuming Abrams wins the primary of course .

>Republican in majority black district

Lolwut

He switched from Democrat to Republican after he won re-election in 2010, and didn't have a serious challenger during Presidential years. He only won by 7 in 2014 with black turnout down. Don't see how he escapes this time with Trump mid-term + black woman at the top of the ticket (potentially).

From his wikipedia page:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Adam Griffin]

Greene has held on for three reasons: existing loyalty to his name (which was associated with the Democratic Party for decades), elevated black support and a luck of the draw with respect to opponents.

2016 is a great example of his luck, where the presumptive Democratic nominee was "discovered" to not live in the district after qualifying had ended; was a supposed clerical error on behalf of the local BoE and the Secretary of State, who had him registered as a voter in that district when he resided about one mile outside of it. The SoS would not allow Democrats to qualify a replacement. Greene ultimately faced an independent challenger, garnering 62% of the vote in 2016.

However, Greene also enjoys higher-than-average support from black voters in the district as well. I disagree (at least in small scope) with RFK on black turnout guaranteeing a Democratic victory (let alone Abrams guaranteeing some surge of it). There are certain areas in Georgia where Republicans can easily win 20% or more of the black vote (HD 151 and the broader area influenced by Fort Benning is one of these areas, as is the area surrounding Fort Stewart); Bacon King and I looked at precinct data some years ago and came away with no other conclusion based on turnout and vote totals (Georgia reports exactly who votes by race (by precinct), so it's easy to confirm this).

Even in 2014, black turnout was arguably sufficient enough to oust Greene had it played out like it usually does in the rest of the state. Black turnout in the district wasn't terrible that year: it's just that the area is losing black population to urban parts of Georgia in many places at an alarming rate. Despite that, even Carter won the district by 9 points...while Greene likewise carried it by 10. When you look at comparable, heavily-white counties in this part of the state and the fact that they did not enjoy any monumental swing to Carter out of old blue dog loyalty, one comes away observing that a hefty chunk of black voters crossed over and re-elected Greene. Ergo, higher black turnout in a midterm is no guarantee that Greene will be in danger of losing.