Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Rookie Yinzer]

I don’t see how Kemp gets passed wiping an election server and the state not defending him in court.

I agree.

I wonder if he cares to explain how paper ballots are a conspiracy by liberal socialist hacks to tear down Georgia's institutions but he voted for paper receipts in 2004 when Cathy Cox was SoS?

Abrams vs. Kemp would be pretty epic. I can already imagine the anti-Abrams propaganda that will be polluting my television screen.

[QAnonKelly]

Yeah, the GOP primary is definitely going to be Atlanta vs the more rural parts of the state. Especially with the Amazon project looming. I just don’t know if there’s enough GOP votes in Gwinnett and Cobb anymore to drive Cagle’s margins up enough to take the hit in the rural parts of the state.

[Del Tachi]

Just for reference, here were the 10 counties with the most GOP primary vote in 2016:

1.  Cobb (112k)
2.  Gwinnett (98k)
3.  Fulton (84k)
4.  Cherokee (50k)
5.  DeKalb (44k)
6.  Forsyth (42k)
7.  Hall (32k)
8.  Chatham (30k)
9.  Henry (28k)
10.  Columbia (26k)

So I'd say there's definitely enough GOP votes in Fulton/DeKalb/Cobb/Gwinnett for Cagle to make it close.  What he's got to worry about is Brian Kemp's performance in exurban counties like Forsyth, Cherokee and Henry, and Cagle has to keep it close (if not win) Savannah and Augusta.

I would say Cagle's benchmarks are something like 2/3 of the vote in Gwinnett and Cobb, and closer to 80% in Fulton/DeKalb.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Who is more moderate and reasonable out of Cagle and Kemp?

[Skill and Chance]

Just for reference, here were the 10 counties with the most GOP primary vote in 2016:

1.  Cobb (112k)
2.  Gwinnett (98k)
3.  Fulton (84k)
4.  Cherokee (50k)
5.  DeKalb (44k)
6.  Forsyth (42k)
7.  Hall (32k)
8.  Chatham (30k)
9.  Henry (28k)
10.  Columbia (26k)

So I'd say there's definitely enough GOP votes in Fulton/DeKalb/Cobb/Gwinnett for Cagle to make it close.  What he's got to worry about is Brian Kemp's performance in exurban counties like Forsyth, Cherokee and Henry, and Cagle has to keep it close (if not win) Savannah and Augusta.

I would say Cagle's benchmarks are something like 2/3 of the vote in Gwinnett and Cobb, and closer to 80% in Fulton/DeKalb.

Cagle's biggest concern would be that something like 15% of the 2014 R primary voters in those counties are going to take the Dem ballot this time, like in VA-GOV 2017. 

[Del Tachi]

Who is more moderate and reasonable out of Cagle and Kemp?

Cagle is trying to run as the more moderate Republican, Kemp is using a lot of pro-Trump rhetoric to turn-up his rural base but is also more capable and favored by the state's business and agricultural communities (as Adam Griffin mentions above).  I think Kemp has triangulated an almost perform position for the primary, and I expect him to win somewhat handily.

Also, I just realized that Georgia television hilariously provides an almost perfect example of the two different types of Republican voters Cagle and Kemp are trying to appeal to:



and

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Ok I will vote Cagle in the primary then.

[Del Tachi]

Just for reference, here were the 10 counties with the most GOP primary vote in 2016:

1.  Cobb (112k)
2.  Gwinnett (98k)
3.  Fulton (84k)
4.  Cherokee (50k)
5.  DeKalb (44k)
6.  Forsyth (42k)
7.  Hall (32k)
8.  Chatham (30k)
9.  Henry (28k)
10.  Columbia (26k)

So I'd say there's definitely enough GOP votes in Fulton/DeKalb/Cobb/Gwinnett for Cagle to make it close.  What he's got to worry about is Brian Kemp's performance in exurban counties like Forsyth, Cherokee and Henry, and Cagle has to keep it close (if not win) Savannah and Augusta.

I would say Cagle's benchmarks are something like 2/3 of the vote in Gwinnett and Cobb, and closer to 80% in Fulton/DeKalb.

Cagle's biggest concern would be that something like 15% of the 2014 R primary voters in those counties are going to take the Dem ballot this time, like in VA-GOV 2017. 

Maybe.  Georgia might be much more inelastic than VA.  If Stacey Evans were to drop down to the AG race, Casey Cagle would probably be a surprise beneficiary - I don't think White Atlanta suburbanites would be voting in a Dem primary for Stacey Abrams. 

[Young Conservative]

Just for reference, here were the 10 counties with the most GOP primary vote in 2016:

1.  Cobb (112k)
2.  Gwinnett (98k)
3.  Fulton (84k)
4.  Cherokee (50k)
5.  DeKalb (44k)
6.  Forsyth (42k)
7.  Hall (32k)
8.  Chatham (30k)
9.  Henry (28k)
10.  Columbia (26k)

So I'd say there's definitely enough GOP votes in Fulton/DeKalb/Cobb/Gwinnett for Cagle to make it close.  What he's got to worry about is Brian Kemp's performance in exurban counties like Forsyth, Cherokee and Henry, and Cagle has to keep it close (if not win) Savannah and Augusta.

I would say Cagle's benchmarks are something like 2/3 of the vote in Gwinnett and Cobb, and closer to 80% in Fulton/DeKalb.

Cagle's biggest concern would be that something like 15% of the 2014 R primary voters in those counties are going to take the Dem ballot this time, like in VA-GOV 2017. 

Maybe.  Georgia might be much is significantly more inelastic than VA.  

[QAnonKelly]

A lot of Cagle’s success will hinge on the fabled suburbanites that don’t like Trump. I could see Evans siphoning off some of the votes he desperately needs in Gwinnett and Cobb. Cobb voting D last year for President may have just been a fluke(or an accelerants event)  but I don’t see a Rep outright winning Gwinnett anymore for the foreseeable future

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pardon... ITP and OTP?

Outside of the Perimeter and Inside of the Perimeter - probably the biggest cultural and political division in the state of Georgia.

The Perimeter referring to Interstate 485 - the circumferential highway around Atlanta

[/quote]

The Perimeter is I-285.  There was a proposal for a 485 inside Atlanta back in the 1970s, but it never got off the ground.

[OneJ]

Who is more moderate and reasonable out of Cagle and Kemp?

Cagle is trying to run as the more moderate Republican, Kemp is using a lot of pro-Trump rhetoric to turn-up his rural base but is also more capable and favored by the state's business and agricultural communities (as Adam Griffin mentions above).  I think Kemp has triangulated an almost perform position for the primary, and I expect him to win somewhat handily.

Also, I just realized that Georgia television hilariously provides an almost perfect example of the two different types of Republican voters Cagle and Kemp are trying to appeal to:

[snip]

and

[snip]

Lol.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Clay Tippins will launch television ads during the Super Bowl in Albany, Columbus, and Macon media markets. Ads will begin airing in Atlanta market on Monday.

It will feature a Casey Cagle look-a-like in a tuxedo, to take a shot at his past as a tuxedo store owner.

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/clay-tippins-makes-super-bowl-sized-splash-georgia-gov-race/0mneWKEAk17CCOXqjKvzNL/

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Clay Tippins will launch television ads during the Super Bowl in Albany, Columbus, and Macon media markets. Ads will begin airing in Atlanta market on Monday.

It will feature a Casey Cagle look-a-like in a tuxedo, to take a shot at his past as a tuxedo store owner.

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/clay-tippins-makes-super-bowl-sized-splash-georgia-gov-race/0mneWKEAk17CCOXqjKvzNL/

Some Max Baucus-style subliminal gaydar baiting?

Probably

[Rookie Yinzer]

Here's the ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEKcd4-UIHE&pbjreload=10

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here's the ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEKcd4-UIHE&pbjreload=10

That was a pretty good ad, given the target audience imo

[Young Conservative]

Pretty good ad.

[QAnonKelly]

Good ad, especially for his audience. IRL though the 21st Century Georgia isn't who he's targeting. I get the point but I just thought that was funny

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

What is Clay Tippins policy positions like?

[Adam Griffin]

Here's a little cheat-sheet for primary night, showing where votes for each party electorate generally reside. There are of course numerous ways you can hack and splice GA in such contests, but increasingly, population density and the presence of metro areas/lack thereof are key factors. It also helps to know that a candidate who wins a super-majority of counties in the state (in either party) on Election Night can still lose their primary - and quite resoundingly.

[Del Tachi]

Here's a little cheat-sheet for primary night, showing where votes for each party electorate generally reside. There are of course numerous ways you can hack and splice GA in such contests, but increasingly, population density and the presence of metro areas/lack thereof are key factors. It also helps to know that a candidate who wins a super-majority of counties in the state (in either party) on Election Night can still lose their primary - and quite resoundingly.

Any estimation what % of the Democratic electorate is Black in each of your regions?  Rural Georgia and Non-Atlanta Metro areas are probably dominated by Black Democrats, but I'm curious as to the Urban Atlanta and Exurban Atlanta regions.

Also, how would the %'s on your map change if the "core" Atlanta counties of Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton were a separate region?

[Rookie Yinzer]

A memo from Abrams’ campaign manager to top supporters leaked and revealed some of her playbook.

Some quick points from the memo include:
-Abrams campaign plans to portray Evans as someone who has abandoned core Democratic values and will highlight her B+ rating from the NRA and her vote to put the Opportunity Schools referendum on the ballot in November 2016.
-They give out warning that Vincent Fort will jump in the Lieutenant Governor’s Race and will be used as an attack dog to go after Abrams and portray her as a radical, corrupt Atlanta politician.
-They project the primary electorate to be 65 percent black, with the plurality (45 percent) being black women.
-Their internal polling shows Abrams up among all demographic and geographic groups.
-She will report $450,000 cash on hand, she raised $300,000 in December and $500,000 in January.
-They have reached out to 600,000 voters and signed up 4,000 volunteers.

The full memorandum is here:
https://cmgpremajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/abrams-memo.pdf

Hunter Hill released an ad with Cagle and Kemp look-a-likes, he added in the obligatory swamp reference. The ad will be on all media markets by the end of the week.

https://youtu.be/hgwetVw7XOE

[BuckeyeNut]

... the Bernie Sanders endorsed Vincent Fort is going to attack Stacey Abrams as a radical? lolk

[GeorgiaModerate]

Buried in the middle of https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-some-worry-that-low-bridge-would-discourage-tall-ships/BunZZ1CKhrKc50oszjjDdJ/:

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[Del Tachi]

The portrayals of Casey Cagle in these commercials is hilarious.  Poor guy.