Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently Handel is entereing the Senate race tomorrow:

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Awesome. In other news, Barrow isn't running. National Dem said that Barrow couldn't turn out women and minorities in an off-year.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/may/07/john-barrow-will-not-run-senate/

[nolesfan2011]

with Barrow out, short of Broun winning, not sure how Dems win this.

[Miles]

Maybe this means Michelle Nunn is running? They had a chat a few weeks ago.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Damn you John Barrow. We needed that seat.
Can Michelle Nunn win? Maybe Scott Holcomb?

[RogueBeaver]

Another national Dem said Barrow is too conservative to juice the base. Apparently Nunn has made noise before, so they're taking her potential interest with a grain of salt. All the others don't have the statewide network or name ID that Barrow and Nunn would.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2013/05/barrow-won-t-run-for-senate-as-dems-eye-backup-07

[old timey villain]

Haven't we had minority and women candidates running in midterm years in this state? And did they ever win or come close to winning??

John Barrow is really dumb, for real.

[publicunofficial]

I'm not mad at John Barrow. This allows him to keep control of his Congressional district, which is more important for now.


If Broun or Gingrey does make it through to the general, then Nunn or Holcomb will be strong enough to win. If Handel, Price, or Kingston is the nominee, then I doubt Barrow could've beat them anyway.

[Adam Griffin]

Well, this is awful. Obviously I'm not from the Barrow wing of the party, but I'm realistic: it'd take someone like him to win this seat in 2014 - and that's against Broun. Electorate's bound to be between 61-62% white next year; it's going to take a white conservadem to have a shot.

Barrow, on the other hand, must either think that he'll have a shot at 2016, or doesn't want to be a Senator. Maybe a deal was struck? If he doesn't run in 2016, then he'll probably never get a shot otherwise. The shifts in the state and within the Democratic Party won't be too welcoming to him past then if he doesn't get into the Senate. The primaries that DPG is worried about will become a bigger likelihood by the end of the decade as you have everyone lining up to try to win statewide office.

I'd actually like to see him run for Governor instead, but the state party's saying he will stay in his CD.

As far as Michelle Nunn goes: does she look like the next Senator from Georgia? Maybe - if she doesn't talk about progress, empathy and cooperation.

[Miles]

Apparently Nunn is stronger in the general election than Barrow:

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There are a ton of undecideds, so I'm not sure I'd read too far into it though.

[Miles]

Price isn't running for Senate after all.

Handel looks more likely to get in, since she won't be able to run for Price's House seat.

[RogueBeaver]

Price isn't running for Senate after all.

Handel looks more likely to get in, since she won't be able to run for Price's House seat.

Didn't expect the Price to be right given the noise Handel's been making. Hopefully she gets in soon, both would be excellent Senators.

[Miles]

Hopefully she gets in soon, both would be excellent Senators.

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently Nunn is considering declaring before next week's GAGOP convention.

[RogueBeaver]

Per NRO, Handel's entry is a matter of "when", not "if."

http://www.nationalreview.com/node/347960

[nolesfan2011]

Per NRO, Handel's entry is a matter of "when", not "if."

http://www.nationalreview.com/node/347960

Yep, and no real room for Price in that GOP field.. he would rather keep house leadership which makes sense.

I don't see a path to victory for Michelle Nunn, even if she is a copy of the wonderful Carol Porter, she didn't win either (against the corrupt and unlikable Cagle) granted it was 2010 but still, both are "strong businesswomen with experience in politics" both will probably do something folksy related to "good government" etc. and I don't see it working.

[RogueBeaver]

Handel won't announce before or during the GAGOP convention next Saturday.

http://atr.rollcall.com/karen-handel-senate-run-likely-in-georgia/

[Skill and Chance]

Well, this is awful. Obviously I'm not from the Barrow wing of the party, but I'm realistic: it'd take someone like him to win this seat in 2014 - and that's against Broun. Electorate's bound to be between 61-62% white next year; it's going to take a white conservadem to have a shot.

Barrow, on the other hand, must either think that he'll have a shot at 2016, or doesn't want to be a Senator. Maybe a deal was struck? If he doesn't run in 2016, then he'll probably never get a shot otherwise. The shifts in the state and within the Democratic Party won't be too welcoming to him past then if he doesn't get into the Senate. The primaries that DPG is worried about will become a bigger likelihood by the end of the decade as you have everyone lining up to try to win statewide office.

I'd actually like to see him run for Governor instead, but the state party's saying he will stay in his CD.

As far as Michelle Nunn goes: does she look like the next Senator from Georgia? Maybe - if she doesn't talk about progress, empathy and cooperation.

Barrow's situation is complex because he's a moderate to conservative Dem and his state appears to be trending left nationally.  If he wants to go statewide, he needs to follow a similar path to Mark Warner and be prepared to drift into line with national D's over the decade if he wins.  I think he is holding out for 2016 and a Hillary run.  He wouldn't need a mentally ill opponent to take that seat in a presidential year.

He could also be eyeing the (presumably) open seat 2018 Gov race.  He would likely have either President Hillary or an R midterm at his back.  He would also get to veto 2021 redistricting if he won, which could be huge for the state party (how viable is holding the GOP under 2/3rds in the legislature?). 

[Maxwell]

Haven't we had minority and women candidates running in midterm years in this state? And did they ever win or come close to winning??

John Barrow is really dumb, for real.

I don't think so. If Handel came out of the Primary, he's out of a job, and more wacko birds and less Tom Price, the better it is for her. I think he's making a smart choice in terms of keeping an already at risk seat.

[Adam Griffin]

Barrow's situation is complex because he's a moderate to conservative Dem and his state appears to be trending left nationally.  If he wants to go statewide, he needs to follow a similar path to Mark Warner and be prepared to drift into line with national D's over the decade if he wins.  I think he is holding out for 2016 and a Hillary run.  He wouldn't need a mentally ill opponent to take that seat in a presidential year.

He could also be eyeing the (presumably) open seat 2018 Gov race.  He would likely have either President Hillary or an R midterm at his back.  He would also get to veto 2021 redistricting if he won, which could be huge for the state party (how viable is holding the GOP under 2/3rds in the legislature?). 

I agree. It was either in one of the earlier articles or from another source that I read the biggest concern for Barrow was that he would not be capable of elevating turnout or enthusiasm among females or African-Americans, which is obvious. In 2016, Hillary and/or a presidential year turnout could put Barrow in for sure. This arrangement makes the most sense: Nunn now, Barrow in '16. If he doesn't run then, though, it's going to be hard for him to win any statewide race. Maybe Governor, like you said, but I think once Georgia is in the position to flip, statewide races are going to become real Democratic-leaning, real fast.

And for holding the Republicans under 2/3rds with the current maps: yes, but not by much. Effectively, you'll probably still have a 'conservative' supermajority until a few of those House districts break out late-decade.

[Skill and Chance]

Barrow's situation is complex because he's a moderate to conservative Dem and his state appears to be trending left nationally.  If he wants to go statewide, he needs to follow a similar path to Mark Warner and be prepared to drift into line with national D's over the decade if he wins.  I think he is holding out for 2016 and a Hillary run.  He wouldn't need a mentally ill opponent to take that seat in a presidential year.

He could also be eyeing the (presumably) open seat 2018 Gov race.  He would likely have either President Hillary or an R midterm at his back.  He would also get to veto 2021 redistricting if he won, which could be huge for the state party (how viable is holding the GOP under 2/3rds in the legislature?). 

I agree. It was either in one of the earlier articles or from another source that I read the biggest concern for Barrow was that he would not be capable of elevating turnout or enthusiasm among females or African-Americans, which is obvious. In 2016, Hillary and/or a presidential year turnout could put Barrow in for sure. This arrangement makes the most sense: Nunn now, Barrow in '16. If he doesn't run then, though, it's going to be hard for him to win any statewide race. Maybe Governor, like you said, but I think once Georgia is in the position to flip, statewide races are going to become real Democratic-leaning, real fast.

And for holding the Republicans under 2/3rds with the current maps: yes, but not by much. Effectively, you'll probably still have a 'conservative' supermajority until a few of those House districts break out late-decade.

I'm not so sure about this.  Remember, it took a Republican midterm to really get the process started in VA.  And in NC it started with Obama's near landslide 2008 win, but then you had the concurrent trend of conservaDems abandoning downballot D's there. Georgia seems to be drifting left, but I think it will take a Republican midterm to push it over the edge statewide.

[RogueBeaver]

David Perdue, Sonny Perdue's cousin and a businessman, is exploring a gubernatorial run.
 

[Adam Griffin]

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/may/13/better-georgia-poll-michelle-nunn-would-be-competi/

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[Adam Griffin]

Better Georgia poll: Jason Carter viable for Gubernatorial run

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http://bettergeorgia.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Voters-Concerns-Over-Cronyism-Corruption-Threaten-Deals-Re-Election-Hopes.pdf

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Better Georgia poll: Jason Carter viable for Gubernatorial run

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http://bettergeorgia.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Voters-Concerns-Over-Cronyism-Corruption-Threaten-Deals-Re-Election-Hopes.pdf

I'd prefer Carter here. Though Holcombe would be good too. Minority candidates are a no-no though. Sorry Stacey.

[free my dawg]

Excellent news.