House sleepers

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any candidates for possible upsets or shockingly close results?

[Franzl]

Bachmann seems to be a possibility. Probably the latter, though.

[Torie]

Outside of Bachmann and King in Iowa, and Love in Utah over Matheson perhaps, there are amazingly few surprises really. I predicted 0 to 5 Dem gains six months ago, and that still seems in the zone. PVI is king.

[Zioneer]

I'm hoping Rob Zerban gets close or even wins against Paul Ryan. But he probably won't win. I do think Kyrsten Siemna (I can never spell her name correctly) will win in AZ-01.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Nick Lampson could win maybe

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'm hoping Rob Zerban gets close or even wins against Paul Ryan. But he probably won't win. I do think Kyrsten Siemna (I can never spell her name correctly) will win in AZ-01.

You also have her in the wrong district.

[morgieb]

PA-8, TN-4, WV-1 (not Coal Country so...), etc.

[Zioneer]

I'm hoping Rob Zerban gets close or even wins against Paul Ryan. But he probably won't win. I do think Kyrsten Siemna (I can never spell her name correctly) will win in AZ-01.

You also have her in the wrong district.

She'll win in all of them!

Seriously though, thanks for correcting me.

[cinyc]

I don't think anyone knows what is going to happen on Staten Island, or, to a lesser extent, Long Island, on Tuesday with coastal neighborhoods devastated, the power still out in places and a gas shortage.  Disgust with the slow hurricane response could hurt Grimm in NY-11.  I also don't know how they are even going to hold elections in Island Park or Long Beach in McCarthy's NY-04.  That probably helps her, though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Has Grimm been doing anything to try to push the response along to get help to them?

[cinyc]

Has Grimm been doing anything to try to push the response along to get help to them?

Yes.  He worked with a hospital to get generators and has made a presence on some local TV coverage.  He also was out in front criticizing Bloomberg for trying to run the marathon, which irked many Staten Islanders.  But when the power is out, getting on TV doesn't help much.

Grimm should be okay, but I don't think anyone can predict turnout.

[Blue3]

Rhode Island may kick out its first-term Democratic incumbent and put in a Republican.

[Vosem]

On DKE they're talking about CA-33, where long-time Democratic incumbent Henry Waxman is being challenged by independent Bill Bloomfield. The district is very Democratic, but most of it is new to Waxman and apparently he hasn't made a very good impression.

[socaldem]

I can't see Waxman losing in CA-33. There are way too many limousine liberals in the district for that...he did gain some conservative precincts in the Palos Verdes Penninsula but he also lost portions of the valley that weren't his base, either. He will get huge margins in Santa Monica/West LA/Beverly Hills and will be at least even everywhere else.

I think some other CA races could be surprisingly close or upsets for Dems.

CA-10 and CA-36 with Democratic astronaut Jose Hernandez and ER Physician Raul Ruiz are very competitive and could be upset wins for the Dems.

The GOP assemblyman is favored in CA-21 but the district is very Democratic in a Presidential election year and I could see the underfunded Hernandez riding coattails to election.

CA-25 has an aggressive Dem challenger, changing demographics and a lackluster and corrupt long-term incumbent. If it is close or an upset, it would be shocking...but I think it could be a 10 point race or less.

CA-35 Could Bloomberg's moneybomb help Gloria Negrete McLeod fight off the entire dem establishment and long-time Rep. Joe Baca?

CA-39 Royce is a decent incumbent so I would say an upset is not possible but Jay Chen is energetic and could make it close, setting himself up for a future assembly or congressional run.

[Lief 🗽]

Plenty of upsets are possible, IMO. There's been a serious lack of district polling this year, compared to the last three cycles, and the generic house ballot is a tie, a pretty big shift from 2010.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's been a serious lack of district polling this year, compared to the last three cycles, and the generic house ballot is a tie, a pretty big shift from 2010.

Yes, this is more or less what prompted the question. Obviously this being the first post re-districting election means that the gerrymanders should hold better than later in the decade, and maybe that mitigates somewhat, but...

[Nhoj]

I suppose my district [WI-7] could be a sleeper, but I doubt it as krietlow hasn't released any internals in about a month and with St criox added in redistricting its probably safe for duffy.

[morgieb]

Who mentioned KY-06? Or NY-18?

[Oakvale]

Matheson somehow held on against Mia Love in Utah.

[Blue3]

I'm hearing that Joe Walsh, Allen West, and Michele Bachmann were all defeated???

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm hearing that Joe Walsh, Allen West, and Michele Bachmann were all defeated???

Walsh and West were. Bachmann's hanging on by less than fifteen hundred votes with 13% more to come in.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It appears that the winner is CA-33. Did anyone see that coming?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

What about Ron Barber losing in AZ-2 very narrowly with 97% reporting?

[BM]

Wow @ Henry Waxman being neck and neck with an Indie

You must be logged in to read this quote.

His opponent is actually a pretty strong candidate and got some attention from national conservatives. I'm surprised she won and the other conservative darling Mia Love lost though.

[morgieb]

If Waxman loses, it'll be one of the biggest upsets of ALL TIME, not just this election.