Do Republicans think Mitt Romney will win?

[Lief 🗽]

This isn't meant to be a troll post or anything, I'm just legitimately curious. I know if I were seeing polls with Obama down 2-5% in Ohio, tied in the states he needed to have put away long ago, and not ahead in a single national poll in the last week (according to RCP), I'd have very little to no hope of Obama still pulling it out. But Republicans on this forum seem to be upbeat and optimistic.

What's the deal? I guess in 2004 I was optimistic about Kerry's chances, but 1) I was 14 years old, and 2) there were actually polls in the last few days showing Kerry up in states he needed to win! I can understand holding out hope that a miracle happens, but Mitt Romney supporters seem to be genuinely confident that they'll win on Tuesday.

[Ljube]

This isn't meant to be a troll post or anything, I'm just legitimately curious. I know if I were seeing polls with Obama down 2-5% in Ohio, tied in the states he needed to have put away long ago, and not ahead in a single national poll in the last week (according to RCP), I'd have very little to no hope of Obama still pulling it out. But Republicans on this forum seem to be upbeat and optimistic.

What's the deal? I guess in 2004 I was optimistic about Kerry's chances, but 1) I was 14 years old, and 2) there were actually polls in the last few days showing Kerry up in states he needed to win! I can understand holding out hope that a miracle happens, but Mitt Romney supporters seem to be genuinely confident that they'll win on Tuesday.

You put too much stock in polls.

[Yank2133]

This isn't meant to be a troll post or anything, I'm just legitimately curious. I know if I were seeing polls with Obama down 2-5% in Ohio, tied in the states he needed to have put away long ago, and not ahead in a single national poll in the last week (according to RCP), I'd have very little to no hope of Obama still pulling it out. But Republicans on this forum seem to be upbeat and optimistic.

What's the deal? I guess in 2004 I was optimistic about Kerry's chances, but 1) I was 14 years old, and 2) there were actually polls in the last few days showing Kerry up in states he needed to win! I can understand holding out hope that a miracle happens, but Mitt Romney supporters seem to be genuinely confident that they'll win on Tuesday.

You put too much stock in polls.

And this pretty much answers Lief's question..........

[Joe Biden 2020]

This isn't meant to be a troll post or anything, I'm just legitimately curious. I know if I were seeing polls with Obama down 2-5% in Ohio, tied in the states he needed to have put away long ago, and not ahead in a single national poll in the last week (according to RCP), I'd have very little to no hope of Obama still pulling it out. But Republicans on this forum seem to be upbeat and optimistic.

What's the deal? I guess in 2004 I was optimistic about Kerry's chances, but 1) I was 14 years old, and 2) there were actually polls in the last few days showing Kerry up in states he needed to win! I can understand holding out hope that a miracle happens, but Mitt Romney supporters seem to be genuinely confident that they'll win on Tuesday.

You put too much stock in polls.

[Lincoln Republican]

Yes.

[Drew1830]

You put too much stock in polls.

And this is about as sophisticated as the response will get.

A lead of 1.5 points or more in a state polling average a week before the election has about a 98% hit rate.

They're almost never wrong.

Romney would need them to be wrong in multiple states in the same election for him to win.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

No. I'll be extremely surprised if he does.

[Sasquatch]

The only polling I can remember what was absolutely wrong was for the New Hampshire Democratic Primary in 2008.

Other than that, polls are usually spot on.

[Lief 🗽]

Man, I wish my brain worked like the blue avatars on here. Obama loses a debate a month before the election and I'm about ready to jump off a cliff. Meanwhile, Romney is down in every poll that he needs to be up in a day before the election and they're still confident of victory! I'm seriously jealous.

[Sasquatch]

Man, I wish my brain worked like the blue avatars on here. Obama loses a debate a month before the election and I'm about ready to jump off a cliff. Meanwhile, Romney is down in every poll that he needs to be up in a day before the election and they're still confident of victory! I'm seriously jealous.

That's been the weakness of the Democratic Party for decades.

[Yank2133]

Man, I wish my brain worked like the blue avatars on here. Obama loses a debate a month before the election and I'm about ready to jump off a cliff. Meanwhile, Romney is down in every poll that he needs to be up in a day before the election and they're still confident of victory! I'm seriously jealous.

That's been the weakness of the Democratic Party for decades.

Yup.

Democrats act like losers, even though they are winning.

Republicans act like winners, even though they are losing.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

No I do not

[Dereich]

Nah, I hope for but don't expect a split EV/PV result though.

[Sasquatch]

Man, I wish my brain worked like the blue avatars on here. Obama loses a debate a month before the election and I'm about ready to jump off a cliff. Meanwhile, Romney is down in every poll that he needs to be up in a day before the election and they're still confident of victory! I'm seriously jealous.

That's been the weakness of the Democratic Party for decades.

Yup.

Democrats act like losers, even though they are winning.

Republicans act like winners, even though they are losing.

Why though?

It would be nice to have Democratic president who called Republicans out on their bullsh*t and rubbed their noses in it. I've always likened the GOP to the school bully. The only way to beat a bully is to fight back. Even if their wrong, people instinctively like people who are strong. However, Democrats don't have to be wrong to be strong because facts tend to have a liberal bias. Just be strong!

[Stirring Wolf🥣🐺]

Man, I wish my brain worked like the blue avatars on here. Obama loses a debate a month before the election and I'm about ready to jump off a cliff. Meanwhile, Romney is down in every poll that he needs to be up in a day before the election and they're still confident of victory! I'm seriously jealous.

That's been the weakness of the Democratic Party for decades.

Yup.

Democrats act like losers, even though they are winning.

Republicans act like winners, even though they are losing.

“When you give conservatives bad news in your polls, they want to kill you, when you give liberals bad news in your polls, they want to kill themselves.”

[heatmaster]

The better word is know and not think; The reason for Republican enthusiasm and why we are upbeat about victory; because Romney has a compelling message, jobs and the economy; Why were Democrats so upbeat in 2008? Then you have your answer.
The other reason why the Republicans are so intense, because they want to win and for better or worse, Obama has a record to defend, but has to Republican delight opted not to do this, but instead engage in negative campaign, attack, distort and seems to show that veneer of anger; the anger, I think stems from being caught in a lie, not only because of what happened in that first debate and the aftermath; there is the favorability factor which shows Romney in a tie with Obama and then there is sense of the possibility.

[King]

Lief, do you honestly expect supporters of a campaign not based on facts to be discouraged by scientific polls?

[Drew1830]

because Romney has a compelling message, jobs and the economy;

Compelling indeed.

[pepper11]

I'll be a bit surprised, maybe 25% chance of it happening. But I do think the polling in CO, NC, FL, and small amount in VA is somewhat discordant from the actual voting numbers we have (esp NC and CO). And if the polling is wrong here, why wouldnt it be elsewhere. Plus Romney team is legitimately bullish on their chances. Maybe they are in an ignorant bliss, I dunno. But they are confident for whatever reason.

[Cliffy]

I'm 40.  I've been through several elections.  In 08 it was a no brainerf.  This time it's easy to see the polls are wrong.  It's hard to say that b/c it makes it easy for you guys to ridicule, I'm a cautiously optimistic person generally, but it boils down to the fundamentals and mainly the economy.  We'll find out in a couple days if you get D+8 turnout and win independents, that's what you have to have.

I'm very confident Romney wins.  I feel very good about a D+3 electorate or better towards R.

[SPC]

The only polling I can remember what was absolutely wrong was for the New Hampshire Democratic Primary in 2008.

Other than that, polls are usually spot on.

I thought of this when trying to think of any historical counterexamples that would make me eat my words. Of course, primaries are much more volatile than general elections and momentum can reverse itself very quickly, as anyone who watching the 2012 GOP primaries could tell you.

Of course, I learned the hard way that the polls are usually correct through incorrectly predicting three consecutive elections (2008 primaries, 2010 midterms, 2012 primaries) based on my bias toward one of the parties/candidates. I find I'm much more level-headed when I don't care which candidate wins (although I might be slightly biased since I've said Obama would win since December 2011)

EDIT: Technically, the 2010 midterms don't count, since my predictions were based on the poll consensus that Reid and Bennet managed to beat. So I guess there are three examples of all the polls being wrong that the Romney can look to for hope.

[King]

I'm 40.  I've been through several elections.  In 08 it was a no brainerf.  This time it's easy to see the polls are wrong.  It's hard to say that b/c it makes it easy for you guys to ridicule, I'm a cautiously optimistic person generally, but it boils down to the fundamentals and mainly the economy.  We'll find out in a couple days if you get D+8 turnout and win independents, that's what you have to have.

I'm very confident Romney wins.  I feel very good about a D+3 electorate or better towards R.

If the exit polls show a D+7, will you believe them?  Or will you still hold out hope?

Since you don't believe polls that all universally say D+7, what will determine the turnout for you?

[pepper11]

I'm 40.  I've been through several elections.  In 08 it was a no brainerf.  This time it's easy to see the polls are wrong.  It's hard to say that b/c it makes it easy for you guys to ridicule, I'm a cautiously optimistic person generally, but it boils down to the fundamentals and mainly the economy.  We'll find out in a couple days if you get D+8 turnout and win independents, that's what you have to have.

I'm very confident Romney wins.  I feel very good about a D+3 electorate or better towards R.

If the exit polls show a D+7, will you believe them?  Or will you still hold out hope?

Since you don't believe polls that all universally say D+7, what will determine the turnout for you?

Are you purposefully trying to get a rise out of all the Romney supporters on this board?

[SPC]

On a side note, it is quite amusing how Romney supporters right now use the exact same arguments that Ron Paul supporters used in 2007 and 2011.

[Vosem]

Yes. Yes they do.

The question of whether I do is more complex. I can't deny that the polls are showing an Obama victory and they're very, very rarely wrong. But, on the other hand, the early voting in Colorado, Iowa, Florida, and Ohio all seem to close Romney victories, which seems to translate into a Romney victory. The recent activity in Pennsylvania also strikes me as a more legitimate play than McCain's adventures in the state (or Bush's adventures, in '00, in California). And it's not difficult to criticize the polls if they show a more Democratic electorate than '08. Crowd size is an imperfect predictor (obviously), but it also favors Romney, and Romney has better favorability numbers than Obama now. In fact, if all statewide polling were obliterated, the conclusion that Romney is narrowly favored would be unanimously held. But, of course, you can't just magically ignore statewide polling. And statewide polling is showing a pretty clearly unfavorable picture.

The question of who will win, in my mind, depends on my mood. When I feel good, I read about early voting and think Romney will win. When I feel bad, I see polling that clearly shows an Obama victory. Neither result would surprise me.