Official 2012 U.S. Senate Predictions Thread

[Keystone Phil]

Post your final predictions on how the races will play out here.


My predictions:


Dem pick ups - Maine*, Massachusetts, Nevada, Indiana
GOP pick ups - Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin


*Counting King as a Dem pick up since he will caucus with the Dems.

[Talleyrand]

Dem pick ups - Maine*, Massachusetts, Indiana
GOP pick ups - Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana


*Counting King as a Dem pick up since he will caucus with the Dems.

Disclaimer- If there are any upsets on election night, they will be in either/both Montana or Missouri, where Tester or Akin might eke out their respective races.

So my final prediction is 53-47, +/- 1 Democratic seat.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based on 538.



There are a few of these I don't buy (Montana clearly seems to be a tossup), but overall it makes sense.

[Bacon King]

Here's my Senate prediction map:



Here are the states that I'm don't feel 100% comfortable picking a winner, in decending degree of uncertainty:

1. ND
2. NV
3. MT
4. WI
5. NE
6. CT
7. IN
8. AZ
9. MO

[politicallefty]

Dem pick ups - Maine*, Massachusetts, Indiana
GOP pick ups - Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana


So my final prediction is 53-47, +/- 1 Democratic seat.

That's basically my prediction as well at the moment, other than that I expect North Dakota and Montana to split. They're both extremely close races that are tough to call. If Obama runs too far behind in either or both, it could make it difficult for down-ballot races such as these.

The only other seat I really have trouble with is Nevada. It really comes down to how much Berkley can keep up with Obama's numbers in the state. Polling in Nevada has tended to underestimate Democrats. This seat is definitely one I could see taking a long time to call. But if Obama runs strong enough, he could very well pull Berkley across the finish line.

So, overall, I think the most likely Senate result will be a 54-46 Democratic Majority (with the second most likely result being zero-net shift - 53-47). There are a good deal of toss-ups and it shouldn't be forgotten that most typically tend to fall one way or the other as a whole.

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats net two seats.

The only seats I'm not confident about are NV, MT, ND and IN (the last two chiefly because of the lack of polling). Sticking my neck out a bit on the Berkley prediction, but I'm not about to abandon the corrupt old gal now after sticking with her since the summer at least.

[Ogre Mage]

I'd say the most likely outcome is a net gain of +0 or +1 for Senate Democrats.  Both are equally plausible.  

Democratic pickups:  Maine, Massachusetts, Indiana.
Republican pickups:  North Dakota, Nebraska.

Key Democratic holds:  Montana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Virginia.
Key Republican holds:  Arizona, Nevada.

I have little confidence in my Montana and Nevada predictions.

[ShadowRocket]

GOP pick-ups: Nebraska, North Dakota
Dem pick-ups: Maine*, Nevada, Indiana, Massachussetts

Tester and McCaskill both hold on in MT and MO respectively. Baldwin wins WI and Kaine wins VA.

55-45 Dem majority

[Antonio the Sixth]

@BK and Lief: I'm really, really crossing fingers to see your maps on Election Night. ND and AZ are longshots too, but I'll say your map is my best realistic outcome scenario.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Democratic pickups:  Maine, Massachusetts, Indiana.
Republican pickups:  North Dakota, Montana.

Key Democratic holds: Connecticut, Missouri, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nebraska.
Key Republican holds: Arizona, Nevada.

[Franzl]

Democratic pickups:  Maine, Massachusetts, Indiana, Nevada
Republican pickups:  North Dakota, Montana, Nebraska

Key Democratic holds: Connecticut, Missouri, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nebraska.
Key Republican holds: Arizona, Nevada.

otherwise my opinion as well.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'd say the most likely outcome is a net gain of +0 or +1 for Senate Democrats.  Both are equally plausible. 

Democratic pickups:  Maine, Massachusetts, Indiana.
Republican pickups:  North Dakota, Nebraska.

Key Democratic holds:  Montana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Virginia.
Key Republican holds:  Arizona, Nevada.

I have little confidence in my Montana and Nevada predictions.