Atlas 2012 House Ratings/Prediction Thread 2.0

[Miles]

Since the last thread seemed to get somehow deleted, I though I'd start another.

Anyway, this was the map that out group came up with last time and I think it still more or less holds:



Still, we could probably make a few updates in CA.

We also had an idea for a Senate map. This was the most representative map of our consensus:

[Talleyrand]

Wisconsin is on your spreadsheet twice.

[Miles]

Wisconsin is on your spreadsheet twice.

Thanks.

[Miles]

If anyone wants to make their own individual predictions, I've made a map with only the Safe seats colored. Just copy this template map into Paint and fill in the blanks districts as you see fit:



153 are Safe D and 181 are Safe R.

[cinyc]

Is there a list of Congressional seats somewhere?  If I resurrect the election night congressional dashboard, I need to use something other than Sam's quite accurate list last cycle now that he's gone.

Thanks.

[krazen1211]

I tend to think Biggert needs to move to some shade of slight D.

[CatoMinor]

[Lief 🗽]

NV-04 should be a tossup at least, IMO. Jon Ralston today said that Horsford would squeak it out.

[Miles]

NV-04 should be a tossup at least, IMO. Jon Ralston today said that Horsford would squeak it out.

Really?

Despite the bad polls for Horsford, I consider Raslton the supreme authority on NV elections. 

[Gass3268]

NV-04 should be a tossup at least, IMO. Jon Ralston today said that Horsford would squeak it out.

Really?

Despite the bad polls for Horsford, I consider Raslton the supreme authority on NV elections. 

http://www.ralstonflash.com/blog/obama-will-win-state-heller-will-barely-squeak-horsford-takes-cd4-and-gop-will-take-state#.UJcl9M1-PcU

Also I think FL-18 should be a toss up, polls have been all over the place.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think 4-6 is the magic number to be sure your ahead if your are a Republican running statewide (Angle of course probably needed 10% or 12% because of her excentricities). In NV-04 it is probably somewhat higher, because of the higher concentration of underpolling Hispanics in it. Horsford narrowed the gap to within six or so in the last poll I saw, so Ralston is likely correct as he usually is.


I wonder why the GOP is doing so well futher downballot as to take the State Senate, anyone know?

[minionofmidas]

I did not get through on the day of the election to post the prediction I made. :/ It had 6 categories, D/R safe/likely/tilt. There were more "safe" seats than on your map (even though one of your safe seats, FL10, was in likely. Where it belonged.)

Anyways it has 17 errors by yesterday afternoon's count even though just 3 errors net. Of 34 tilt seats across the nation, no fewer than 14 were tipped wrongly.

D won races I tipped to go R
MA6
NY18 (which I rated lean)
IL10
IL17
FL18
UT4
NV4
CA7
CA36
CA52

R won races I tipped to go D
PA12
OH6*
IL13*
MI1
FL2*
KY6 (I rated that lean)
AZ2 (I actually rated that safe!)

where * denotes a prediction partly informed by wishful thinking. I did a couple of those (only in genuinely tossup seats of course), got lucky in AZ9 and in the two NH seats. As a result there were 21 tilt D's vs only 13 tilt R's. (I actually blinked in surprise when I noticed after the election that I'd decided against doing the same thing with UT4. I didn't remember that.)

Anyways, there's a bit of a unifying theme here. In the words of our esteemed newest moderator, PVI (and a 2008-12 PVI at that) was King. The realignment is real. Which among other things means that Rahall and McIntyre and Barrow won't be safe, ever, again. I note Barrow is in a state where a Republican Senate incumbent with electability issues is up for reelection in two years. I know what I would like to do if I were John Barrow.