WaPo: GOP may add to 2010 house gains

[Cliffy]

Well PPP, Marist, Susa and Quinn, would all be wrong then, because the electorate would be different than they are suggesting......

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/02/house-republicans-could-add-to-their-majority-on-election-day/?print=1

[Adam Griffin]

It's certainly possible. I'd say at least 2 out of 3 Congressional Districts are now more conservative than they were in 2010. If we were still under the districts that the Tea Party coasted to victory on in the mid-terms, Democrats would be almost certain to retake the House.

Middle America picked a real good time to try a sample of crazy. The reactionary decisions in 2010 of many moderate and swing voters all across the country will lead to nothing but regret for all of us over the next decade.

[Ty440]

I believe it, people may want divided government just like in the 1990's.

[Frodo]

If this proves to be the case on Tuesday, it will be the last time Nancy Pelosi holds any sort of leadership position. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Congressional gerrymandering is pretty disgusting.

[Miles]

The Congressional gerrymandering is pretty disgusting.

Yep...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Congressional gerrymandering is pretty disgusting.

Yep...

And that's what we got in a state with a Democratic governor. Imagine what it's like in the states completely controlled by the Republican party. Meanwhile, we unilaterally disarmed here in California. The Charlie Mungers of the world only care about redistricting in states controlled by Democrats. Screw him.

[badgate]

The Congressional gerrymandering is pretty disgusting.


And that's what we got in a state with a Democratic governor. Imagine what it's like in the states completely controlled by the Republican party. Meanwhile, we unilaterally disarmed here in California. The Charlie Mungers of the world only care about redistricting in states controlled by Democrats. Screw him.

You're telling me. I'm pretty sure a federal court struck down some of the GOP's gerrymandering...sorry...redistricting in my state.

[CountryRoads]

The Congressional gerrymandering is pretty disgusting.

Yep...

Lol.

NC Dems gerrymandered the sh*t out of NC for DECADES! Don't try and demonize the pubbies there. You've had the Governor's mansion for 16 years.

NC Dem's powertrip on the local/congressional/gubernatorial level is coming to an end.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Lol.

NC Dems gerrymandered the sh*t out of NC for DECADES! Don't try and demonize the pubbies there. You've had the Governor's mansion for 16 years.

NC Dem's powertrip on the local/congressional/gubernatorial level is coming to an end.

No serious person can look at that chart and say the new layout of congressional districts is more fairly proportional than the former.

And that's what we got in a state with a Democratic governor. Imagine what it's like in the states completely controlled by the Republican party.

I don't have to imagine.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Congressional gerrymandering is pretty disgusting.

Yep...

Lol.

NC Dems gerrymandered the sh*t out of NC for DECADES! Don't try and demonize the pubbies there. You've had the Governor's mansion for 16 years.

NC Dem's powertrip on the local/congressional/gubernatorial level is coming to an end.

Did. You. Look. At. The. Goddamn. Numbers?

[Marokai Backbeat]

The Congressional gerrymandering is pretty disgusting.

Yep...

Lol.

NC Dems gerrymandered the sh*t out of NC for DECADES! Don't try and demonize the pubbies there. You've had the Governor's mansion for 16 years.

NC Dem's powertrip on the local/congressional/gubernatorial level is coming to an end.

Did. You. Look. At. The. Goddamn. Numbers?

Antonio, before you ask someone a math or reading comprehension question around here, look at what state they're from.

[Miles]

No serious person can look at that chart and say the new layout of congressional districts is more fairly proportional than the former.

And that's what we got in a state with a Democratic governor. Imagine what it's like in the states completely controlled by the Republican party.

I don't have to imagine.

Well NC is unique in that the Governor has control over redistricting.

Don't try and demonize the pubbies there. You've had the Governor's mansion for 16 years.

Actually, 20 years

Yes, I surely have no reason to criticize them over districts like this or this.

As Marokai says, you can't argue that 10-3 R is even a remotely decent reflection of an otherwise near- 50/50 state.

Anywho, lets not talk about this too much. A certain avatarless troll has an annoying habit of hijacking such threads about NC redistricting....

[Joe Republic]

Cook recently released his PVI ratings for all of the new districts.  The median district (i.e. the tipping point seat that determines control of the House) is now R+3, up from R+2 in the last decade, and R+1 in the '90s.  It's obviously getting tougher for the Dems to take and hold the House.

[morgieb]

The Congressional gerrymandering is pretty disgusting.

Yep...

And that's what we got in a state with a Democratic governor. Imagine what it's like in the states completely controlled by the Republican party. Meanwhile, we unilaterally disarmed here in California. The Charlie Mungers of the world only care about redistricting in states controlled by Democrats. Screw him.

North Carolina's redistricting is only done the legislature, unfortunately Perdue can't veto those maps.

This is actually why a loss in 2016 may not be that bad. Would mean we generally get fairer maps around the country.

[politicallefty]

I don't think you'll see Republican gains in the House, but it does look like they're almost guaranteed to keep the Majority. I do think it is mostly the result of Republican legislative gains in 2010 leading to noticeably more rampant gerrymandering. North Carolina is without a doubt one of the most egregious results of this in the country. It's a racial gerrymander that the Obama Justice Department should have fought (namely the ridiculous 12th district). In any sane map, you would have separate Charlotte and Winston-Salem—Greensboro districts.

It really is a shame the Supreme Court didn't put an end to this in prior cases, and there were a few justices that were leaning that way. It's disgusting when either party draws themselves into power. I think it's a complete mockery of the democratic system that we allow politicians to draw their own districts. I definitely support neutral redistricting commissions in all states. The problem comes when the focus is on unilateral disarmament on the Democratic side, while Republicans still have their way in their states. There needs to be a big push to force nonpartisan redistricting across the country, such as the California citizens' redistricting model.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's one thing to find the new NC map utterly disgusting (because it is) it's quite another to use it to justify generic partisan outrage at how nasty the other lot are. Like it or not, the NC Dems had it coming.

[politicallefty]

I won't defend the NC Democrats from criticism on this issue. I know full well that it was their fault that the governor had no veto power over redistricting. Unfortunately, it's national Democrats that will also pay the price since at least three seats look gone with a possible fourth. Even so, it really is quite something to turn an Obama state into a 10-3 McCain majority. I'm not going to play the holier-than-thou game, but nowhere did Democrats go that far. That's the equivalent of stretching Chicago into downstate districts. With that said, I don't think what North Carolina Republicans did was right and I don't think what Illinois Democrats did was right. However, it's ridiculous that Democrats are subject to unilateral disarmament on the issue. I support neutral redistricting across the board.

[krazen1211]

The above post is amusing nonsense. Will County, Illinois was split into 6 Congressional districts.

[Donerail]

Imagine what it's like in the states completely controlled by the Republican party.

Florida has a Republican governor, a veto-proof Republican majority in both houses, and an entirely Republican cabinet. We ended up with Corrine Brown's district of entirely black Democrats running from northern Jacksonville to southern Orlando. There's a special Hispanic district (SD 14) around Orlando that runs from east Orange County towards downtown Orlando to Kissimmee and Osceola County all the way to Haines City in the west. If you draw a straight line from the northern end to the southern end you enter and exit the district 8 times. In South Florida there's a Senate district that starts near Marco Island and crosses the entire peninsula to take in a single neighborhood south of Miami. In Orange County Republicans were so desperate to keep Andy Gardiner in his seat that his downtown Orlando district now runs out to Merritt Island. Daytona Beach got split in half.

[politicallefty]

The above post is amusing nonsense. Will County, Illinois was split into 6 Congressional districts.

I'm referring to the state as a whole. As I said, I don't defend partisan redistricting in any instance, including what happened in Illinois. Where exactly did I defend that map? My point was that the end result is far more obscene in the North Carolina map. At the very least, NC-12 should be struck down as an illegal racial gerrymander. It's completely nonsensical to string together Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and Greensboro along with random territory in between. Like I said before, I don't support one side laying down arms while the other does not, but I'm not afraid to call out both sides on this issue. Can the same be said of you?

If you don't mind, I'd be more than happy to take this to another board so that we can compare our own versions on how the states should be drawn ideally (that is, unless you only view Democratic gerrymanders as bad and NC as just fine, in which case this conversation will almost certainly go nowhere).

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Somewhat unlikely, but it wouldn't be too shocking. I expect single-digit Democratic gains.

[krazen1211]

The above post is amusing nonsense. Will County, Illinois was split into 6 Congressional districts.

I'm referring to the state as a whole. As I said, I don't defend partisan redistricting in any instance, including what happened in Illinois. Where exactly did I defend that map? My point was that the end result is far more obscene in the North Carolina map. At the very least, NC-12 should be struck down as an illegal racial gerrymander. It's completely nonsensical to string together Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and Greensboro along with random territory in between. Like I said before, I don't support one side laying down arms while the other does not, but I'm not afraid to call out both sides on this issue. Can the same be said of you?

If you don't mind, I'd be more than happy to take this to another board so that we can compare our own versions on how the states should be drawn ideally (that is, unless you only view Democratic gerrymanders as bad and NC as just fine, in which case this conversation will almost certainly go nowhere).

Right here, with this statement that isn't particularly true.

Even so, it really is quite something to turn an Obama state into a 10-3 McCain majority. I'm not going to play the holier-than-thou game, but nowhere did Democrats go that far. That's the equivalent of stretching Chicago into downstate districts.



Not only did you guys initially connect Charlotte, WS, and Greensboro in the last mapping, you guys also dropped Chicago into Kankakee County. But I guess you'd have to willfully not look closely at the 12 congressional districts that hit Chicagoland in order to make such statements.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The above post is amusing nonsense. Will County, Illinois was split into 6 Congressional districts.

I'm referring to the state as a whole. As I said, I don't defend partisan redistricting in any instance, including what happened in Illinois. Where exactly did I defend that map? My point was that the end result is far more obscene in the North Carolina map. At the very least, NC-12 should be struck down as an illegal racial gerrymander. It's completely nonsensical to string together Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and Greensboro along with random territory in between. Like I said before, I don't support one side laying down arms while the other does not, but I'm not afraid to call out both sides on this issue. Can the same be said of you?

The Democrats were the ones who initially drew a strip-corridor when the 12th was added to the state in the 1990's.

There was no veto in NC until the early 1990's when it was returned to the Governor for the first time since Reconstruction. Since there had just been a Republican Governor, the Democrats felt more secure in redistricting by leaving that out of the re-instated veto power. Not that vetos would have mattered, because the Republicans have a veto proof majority in one chamber and close to it in another. They would have simply did what what the MO GOP did and they needed far more defectors in that state.

[politicallefty]

The old NC-12 was wrong, just as this one is. It should be struck down either way. I don't care that Democrats drew it that way, but it is even worse now. If I can admit that what Democrats do can be wrong, why can you not admit what Republicans do can be wrong as well?

Once again, I'm not defending the Illinois map, but there are six at least somewhat reasonable looking districts downstate (12-13, 15-18). All of the other districts are in what is considered be Chicagoland. I won't dispute that there is a mess there, but the ugliest of those is the result of VRA-compliance (just as I'll admit NC-01 is). Are you only going to justify NC-12 based on the past? What about NC-04? I'm not justifying any of it, as my only point was that NC is more nonsensical than IL (but it's still wrong either way). I don't see the point in arguing this, as we're not going to agree on what is worse (nor does it ultimately matter). I'd rather see your ideas of what IL and NC should look like.

You also didn't answer my other points.

The above post is amusing nonsense. Will County, Illinois was split into 6 Congressional districts.

I'm referring to the state as a whole. As I said, I don't defend partisan redistricting in any instance, including what happened in Illinois. Where exactly did I defend that map? My point was that the end result is far more obscene in the North Carolina map. At the very least, NC-12 should be struck down as an illegal racial gerrymander. It's completely nonsensical to string together Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and Greensboro along with random territory in between. Like I said before, I don't support one side laying down arms while the other does not, but I'm not afraid to call out both sides on this issue. Can the same be said of you?

The Democrats were the ones who initially drew a strip-corridor when the 12th was added to the state in the 1990's.

There was no veto in NC until the early 1990's when it was returned to the Governor for the first time since Reconstruction. Since there had just been a Republican Governor, the Democrats felt more secure in redistricting by leaving that out of the re-instated veto power. Not that vetos would have mattered, because the Republicans have a veto proof majority in one chamber and close to it in another. They would have simply did what what the MO GOP did and they needed far more defectors in that state.

See my point above. At the least, I do believe NC-12 was justified in some way as VRA-protected in the 90's. That is no longer the case since it isn't even majority-minority. Even as a VRA district, I think it would go too far to warrant protection though.