Random J.J.-esque thought from Northern NJ

[traininthedistance]

I'm at my parents' for the week in NJ.  (We have no power and I'm at a nearby Starbucks that does).

There is exactly one lawn sign on their street, and it is for the candidate with easily the most lawn signs in the general area.

That candidate is John Arvanites.  Man, suburban Essex got screwed in redistricting.

[Vosem]

lol, good luck beating Frelinghuysen (does anyone know what huy means in my native language? btw)

[traininthedistance]

lol, good luck beating Frelinghuysen (does anyone know what huy means in my native language? btw)

Oh, I'm well aware he has no chance.  I'm mainly just complaining about NJ's congressional lines again.

[Vosem]

lol, good luck beating Frelinghuysen (does anyone know what huy means in my native language? btw)

Oh, I'm well aware he has no chance.  I'm mainly just complaining about NJ's congressional lines again.

Oh, I know. This thread is mainly interesting for me because of the sophomoric humor I find in the name Frelinghuysen. It's the very first entry here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_profanity

[krazen1211]

Suburban Essex Republican whites were blessed by this redistricting. They used to be drowned out.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Suburban Essex towns are frequently stuffed into GOP congressional districts. They're areas that turn out decent GOP vote for what they've become, and they're adjacent to lock-safe GOP territory in Morris.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Suburban Essex Republican whites were blessed by this redistricting. They used to be drowned out.

Whites of any political persuasion are less than a third of Essex County. How much of that is what you'd consider suburban?

[traininthedistance]

Suburban Essex Republican whites were blessed by this redistricting. They used to be drowned out.

Most of Essex County's Republicans were already in NJ-11 last decade (c.f. the Caldwells, Roseland, etc.).  There are a lot of white Democrats around these parts, contra your ridiculous prejudices.

[krazen1211]

Suburban Essex Republican whites were blessed by this redistricting. They used to be drowned out.

Whites of any political persuasion are less than a third of Essex County. How much of that is what you'd consider suburban?

These are the towns that were stuck in an undesirable district that were salvaged for the 11th district.

Millburn
Verona
Nutley
Cedar Grove
Glen Ridge
Northern half of Bloomfield
Northern half of Montclair


All these good people will be glad to be in this new district. With perhaps the lone exception of West Orange Rodney will win the vote of these towns. Millburn I believe was attached to the 7th district.

185,000 or so people from Essex County are in the 11th district; roughly 24% of Essex County.

[traininthedistance]

Suburban Essex Republican whites were blessed by this redistricting. They used to be drowned out.

Whites of any political persuasion are less than a third of Essex County. How much of that is what you'd consider suburban?

These are the towns that were stuck in an undesirable district that were salvaged for the 11th district.

Millburn
Verona
Nutley
Cedar Grove
Glen Ridge
Northern half of Bloomfield
Northern half of Montclair


All these good people will be glad to be in this new district. With perhaps the lone exception of West Orange Rodney will win the vote of these towns. Millburn I believe was attached to the 7th district.

185,000 or so people from Essex County are in the 11th district; roughly 24% of Essex County.

Alright bucko, time for some FACTS (Numbers cribbed from DRA).

First off I will grant that Cedar Grove is Caldwells-level R (39 percent Obama), that's the one town here where you really have a point.  Everything else you've said is laughably wrong and ignorant.

Verona and Nutley are light pink, a tiny bit Republican but there are plenty of Democrats too.  Nutley was 46% Obama (and higher generic D average), while Verona was 49% Obama. 

Millburn was indeed put in the 7th.  It's also moderately Democratic, voting almost 59 percent for Obama.  Similarly, Livingston (which was previously split between 8 and 11, and is now all in 11) is tilt-D, with a hair over 53% for Obama and a higher D average.

The northern portion of Bloomfield may have been Republican 20 years ago, but went for Obama with 57% (unlike some other towns here the D average is lower, but it's still over 54).

Glen Ridge is actually in NJ-10.  It's also 64% Obama.  The portion of West Orange in NJ-11 is 67% Obama, even you realize this.

As for Upper Montclair... ha.  Ha ha ha.  Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. You really have no inksing clue what you're talking about, and that's proof.  77% Obama proof.  You do realize that Montclair is basically a suburban colony of the Upper West Side, do you not?

Anyway, all told there appear to be (if DRA is accurate of course) 133K suburban Essex voters moved from NJ-8 to NJ-11... and Obama won these voters 56 to 44.  Undesirable district my a**.

...

Also, there's a second lawn sign on the aformentioned street now.  It's Obama/Biden.

[traininthedistance]

Oh, and even when you add in the Republican parts of Essex County that were *already* in NJ-11, Obama still wins the Essex County portion by 4.5 points.

The fact is that Democrats have an edge in suburban Essex, there's no way to spin it otherwise.

[traininthedistance]

http://www.essexclerk.com/election/ElectionFrame.html

Arvanites won the Essex County portion of NJ-11, 50.3-48.3.  And this is likely several points behind the generic D strength of the area, due to incumbency. 

And Leonard Lance lost the Essex County portion of his district, too.