U of Cincinnati poll: Obama 48 Romney 46

[Yank2133]

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/documents/op103112.pdf

They added Johnson to the poll.

[DL]

This is the same poll that had it dead even 49-49 last week - so it shows some movement in Obama;s direction!

[tmthforu94]

There's still slight hope - Romney needs a really good closing argument to pull this off. Everything needs to go his way.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

WI is gone, and MN, MI, and PA are big time long shots.  If I was his campaign manager, I'd be parking my ass in OH for the final week without exception.  I don't think it's there for him... but the overall lead is certainly at or below 5.  He can't do this in OH on the strength of pulling the undecideds, he's got to change minds. 

[Gass3268]

There's still slight hope - Romney needs a really good closing argument to pull this off. Everything needs to go his way.

In the next three days Romney is only holding one event in Ohio in Suburban Cincinatti. Between then he's going events in Wisconsin and Virginia, probably a waste of time if he is losing Ohio between 2-5 points. Also I don't think picking a fight with the CEO's of the car companies with the misleading ads is going to work out.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

There's still slight hope - Romney needs a really good closing argument to pull this off. Everything needs to go his way.

In the next three days Romney is only holding one event in Ohio in Suburban Cincinatti. Between then he's going events in Wisconsin and Virginia, probably a waste of time if he is losing Ohio between 2-5 points. Also I don't think picking a fight with the CEO's of the car companies with the misleading ads is going to work out.

This is incredible.  How is he making up 8 points in WI?

There are two possibilities, both having to do with the Romney internals.

1) Romney's internals are showing that OH will not go his way, and he's trying to win in through VA + WI. 

or

2) Romney's internals are showing the race in OH actually has settled into a pure tossup, with few undecideds and completely dependent on the ground game, and he is trying to prevent Obama from getting to 270 through VA. 

Could 270 to 268 be what Romney is really aiming for?

[/img]

I think both are legit, but polling is showing the 1st option to be more likely.  But like I said in the Marquette thread... how is he making up 5-8 pts in 5 days?

The 2nd strategy is very interesting though.  He doesn't even need Colorado... and he IS spending his last day in NH. 

[Ljube]

There's still slight hope - Romney needs a really good closing argument to pull this off. Everything needs to go his way.

In the next three days Romney is only holding one event in Ohio in Suburban Cincinatti. Between then he's going events in Wisconsin and Virginia, probably a waste of time if he is losing Ohio between 2-5 points. Also I don't think picking a fight with the CEO's of the car companies with the misleading ads is going to work out.

This is incredible.  How is he making up 8 points in WI?

There are two possibilities, both having to do with the Romney internals.

1) Romney's internals are showing that OH will not go his way, and he's trying to win in through VA + WI. 

or

2) Romney's internals are showing the race in OH actually has settled into a pure tossup, with few undecideds and completely dependent on the ground game, and he is trying to prevent Obama from getting to 270 through VA. 

Could 270 to 268 be what Romney is really aiming for?

[/img]

I think both are legit, but polling is showing the 1st option to be more likely.  But like I said in the Marquette thread... how is he making up 5-8 pts in 5 days?

The 2nd strategy is very interesting though.  He doesn't even need Colorado... and he IS spending his last day in NH. 

I think it’s the second strategy.

Here’s a tweet from Adrian Gray

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Sasquatch]

GOP hacks are going to blame Gary Johnson if this is razor thin.

[Vosem]

GOP hacks are going to blame Gary Johnson if this is razor thin.

Not this one...PPP polling has shown Johnson to be, net, good for Romney and bad for Obama, but only by a very, very small amount. Though PPP has been weird this cycle...

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

There's still slight hope - Romney needs a really good closing argument to pull this off. Everything needs to go his way.

In the next three days Romney is only holding one event in Ohio in Suburban Cincinatti. Between then he's going events in Wisconsin and Virginia, probably a waste of time if he is losing Ohio between 2-5 points. Also I don't think picking a fight with the CEO's of the car companies with the misleading ads is going to work out.

This is incredible.  How is he making up 8 points in WI?

There are two possibilities, both having to do with the Romney internals.

1) Romney's internals are showing that OH will not go his way, and he's trying to win in through VA + WI. 

or

2) Romney's internals are showing the race in OH actually has settled into a pure tossup, with few undecideds and completely dependent on the ground game, and he is trying to prevent Obama from getting to 270 through VA. 

Could 270 to 268 be what Romney is really aiming for?

[/img]

I think both are legit, but polling is showing the 1st option to be more likely.  But like I said in the Marquette thread... how is he making up 5-8 pts in 5 days?

The 2nd strategy is very interesting though.  He doesn't even need Colorado... and he IS spending his last day in NH. 

I think it’s the second strategy.

Here’s a tweet from Adrian Gray

You must be logged in to read this quote.

May very well be right... but going toe-to-toe with the Obama ground game is a hell of a gamble. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If Romney really wants to leave Ohio to turnout and ground game I guess that's his prerogative but he still needs at least one other state and--again, even if leaving Ohio to turnout and ground game works out for him--I'm just not sure that's there for him, particularly if he's not going to Colorado.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

If Romney really wants to leave Ohio to turnout and ground game I guess that's his prerogative but he still needs at least one other state and--again, even if leaving Ohio to turnout and ground game works out for him--I'm just not sure that's there for him, particularly if he's not going to Colorado.

If he going to go that route, it's a roll of the dice in VA, NH, and CO.  I really think if Ohio is actually that close... then those 3 are a tossup as well. 

But IMHO... this is sort of over and Mittens is trying anything, hence.. PA. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If Romney really wants to leave Ohio to turnout and ground game I guess that's his prerogative but he still needs at least one other state and--again, even if leaving Ohio to turnout and ground game works out for him--I'm just not sure that's there for him, particularly if he's not going to Colorado.

If he going to go that route, it's a roll of the dice in VA, NH, and CO.  I really think if Ohio is actually that close... then those 3 are a tossup as well. 

But IMHO... this is sort of over and Mittens is trying anything, hence.. PA. 

Yeah. I don't think Ohio is as close as that strategy would suggest. This poll specifically doesn't seem off with its margin but I think the actual numbers for both candidates are a little low. I don't think we're at 6% undecided in this state and I don't think anybody in the campaigns does either.

The Pennsylvania thing is kind of hilarious, although at least he's not essentially spending the last fortnight there like McCain did.

[rob in cal]

   I couldn't find a breakdown of early voters in this poll.  I'm always a little suspicious of polls that don't mention that in heavy early voting states.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

If Romney really wants to leave Ohio to turnout and ground game I guess that's his prerogative but he still needs at least one other state and--again, even if leaving Ohio to turnout and ground game works out for him--I'm just not sure that's there for him, particularly if he's not going to Colorado.

If he going to go that route, it's a roll of the dice in VA, NH, and CO.  I really think if Ohio is actually that close... then those 3 are a tossup as well. 

But IMHO... this is sort of over and Mittens is trying anything, hence.. PA. 

Yeah. I don't think Ohio is as close as that strategy would suggest. This poll specifically doesn't seem off with its margin but I think the actual numbers for both candidates are a little low. I don't think we're at 6% undecided in this state and I don't think anybody in the campaigns does either.

The Pennsylvania thing is kind of hilarious, although at least he's not essentially spending the last fortnight there like McCain did.

Bush couldn't even get PA within 2 pts, and he had the center of the state show up in droves for him.  Some of the wealthier areas in SE PA will swing back towards Romney, but it's not going to be nearly enough.   

[Fargobison]

Probably the best poll of the day for Mitt.

[Skill and Chance]

Probably the best poll of the day for Mitt.

Nope.  The IA lead was.

[J. J.]

If Romney really wants to leave Ohio to turnout and ground game I guess that's his prerogative but he still needs at least one other state and--again, even if leaving Ohio to turnout and ground game works out for him--I'm just not sure that's there for him, particularly if he's not going to Colorado.

If he going to go that route, it's a roll of the dice in VA, NH, and CO.  I really think if Ohio is actually that close... then those 3 are a tossup as well. 

But IMHO... this is sort of over and Mittens is trying anything, hence.. PA. 

Obama was on the radio here before Romney went on TV.  And, Obama has made a huge buy. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

If Romney really wants to leave Ohio to turnout and ground game I guess that's his prerogative but he still needs at least one other state and--again, even if leaving Ohio to turnout and ground game works out for him--I'm just not sure that's there for him, particularly if he's not going to Colorado.

If he going to go that route, it's a roll of the dice in VA, NH, and CO.  I really think if Ohio is actually that close... then those 3 are a tossup as well. 

But IMHO... this is sort of over and Mittens is trying anything, hence.. PA. 

Obama was on the radio here before Romney went on TV.  And, Obama has made a huge buy. 

Why wouldn't he?  There's 5 days left and he has plenty of cash on hand, as well.  Why take the risk of giving Romney 100% of the exposure if there's no real cost to avoiding it?