MN: Mason-Dixon: Obama with Slight Lead in Minnesota

[Orion0]

This is actually rather good. Slight leads in places like MN, terrible deficits in places like Missouri and across the South.

I'm starting to think Romney might have to win the PV by 3-4% (Of course this statement will probably look silly when all the votes are in next week...it's not a very probable thing....but this year is crazy) to win the Electoral College.

That's just frightening. So Romney might win 52-47 yet still lose.

Anyone hoping for "sweet payback" to show that America is "not a democracy" is sick and despicable. Wishing for a failure in the system is terrible, and despite the recent brush with it in 2000 highly improbable again. If Romney is up 5% nationally, the swing states will fall, and potentially other unexpected ones as well. Remember Indiana 2008? Anyone seriously thinking Romney would lose the electoral college while winning the pv by 4 or 5 is kidding themselves.

[Franzl]

Anyone hoping for "sweet payback" to show that America is "not a democracy" is sick and despicable. Wishing for a failure in the system is terrible, and despite the recent brush with it in 2000 highly improbable again. If Romney is up 5% nationally, the swing states will fall, and potentially other unexpected ones as well. Remember Indiana 2008? Anyone seriously thinking Romney would lose the electoral college while winning the pv by 4 or 5 is kidding themselves.

The "republic, not a democracy" claim is something that many Republicans have been saying for a while, it's not my idea. It's absurd and doesn't make sense, but what else is new?

And if you want to keep that possibility from happening, then change the system. Don't just hope for there not to be a "system failure". Not very difficult. I have the funny feeling, though, that Republicans would also (suddenly and certainly by total coincidence!) become fans of abandoning the Electoral College if this were to actually happen.

[Lief 🗽]

Mason-Dixon is horrible. I don't know why it's so respected on this forum, they're almost worst than ARG and Zogby.

[Orion0]

Anyone hoping for "sweet payback" to show that America is "not a democracy" is sick and despicable. Wishing for a failure in the system is terrible, and despite the recent brush with it in 2000 highly improbable again. If Romney is up 5% nationally, the swing states will fall, and potentially other unexpected ones as well. Remember Indiana 2008? Anyone seriously thinking Romney would lose the electoral college while winning the pv by 4 or 5 is kidding themselves.

The "republic, not a democracy" claim is something that many Republicans have been saying for a while, it's not my idea. It's absurd and doesn't make sense, but what else is new?

And if you want to keep that possibility from happening, then change the system. Don't just hope for there not to be a "system failure". Not very difficult. I have the funny feeling, though, that Republicans would also (suddenly and certainly by total coincidence!) become fans of abandoning the Electoral College if this were to actually happen.

I was hoping my sick and despicable comment would arouse its intended target. Look, the electoral college has its faults, but definitely has its uses as well. And while if a split did happen again, it might prompt a change, I just can't see it happening. Both parties concede they have certain advantages through the electoral college. If it was solely pv this year Obama is out, period. so I think it's amusing that dems so much want a pv system in place.. Because of 2000? Yes 2000 was insane, unprecedented, and beyond convoluted, but it isn't happening like that again, ever.

[Franzl]

Anyone hoping for "sweet payback" to show that America is "not a democracy" is sick and despicable. Wishing for a failure in the system is terrible, and despite the recent brush with it in 2000 highly improbable again. If Romney is up 5% nationally, the swing states will fall, and potentially other unexpected ones as well. Remember Indiana 2008? Anyone seriously thinking Romney would lose the electoral college while winning the pv by 4 or 5 is kidding themselves.

The "republic, not a democracy" claim is something that many Republicans have been saying for a while, it's not my idea. It's absurd and doesn't make sense, but what else is new?

And if you want to keep that possibility from happening, then change the system. Don't just hope for there not to be a "system failure". Not very difficult. I have the funny feeling, though, that Republicans would also (suddenly and certainly by total coincidence!) become fans of abandoning the Electoral College if this were to actually happen.

I was hoping my sick and despicable comment would arouse its intended target. Look, the electoral college has its faults, but definitely has its uses as well. And while if a split did happen again, it might prompt a change, I just can't see it happening. Both parties concede they have certain advantages through the electoral college. If it was solely pv this year Obama is out, period. so I think it's amusing that dems so much want a pv system in place.. Because of 2000? Yes 2000 was insane, unprecedented, and beyond convoluted, but it isn't happening like that again, ever.

I doubt it will happen either, to be honest (But it's really not as unlikely as it seems. Kerry almost also won the EC without winning the PV)....but I really would like to see the reactions it would cause.

It's just a stupid system that I don't think will go until both parties have been burned by it. (And of course, as an Obama voter....the rules seem to benefit me this time around. Might as well use it if those have to be the rules.)

[LiberalJunkie]

Proof that MD is showing crappy polls now.

[Eraserhead]

Mason-Dixon is horrible. I don't know why it's so respected on this forum, they're almost worst than ARG and Zogby.

I wouldn't say that but I always found the worship of them on this forum to be pretty hilarious. A quick look at their record proves that they're far from excellent and it's clear that they have a rather large R-lean.

[Sasquatch]

I thought Mason-Dixon was only good at polling Florida.

[Lief 🗽]

I thought Mason-Dixon was only good at polling Florida.

They're not even good at that anymore. They said Sink would win in 2010.

[Likely Voter]

I think its entirely possible that Obama only wins by 3 points in MN. He won by 10 in 2008 and a 7 point swing is very plausible. MD is a good pollster, although unsure about their track record in MN.

[cinyc]

Minnesota's PVI is D+2.  Obama +3 is consistent with a virtually tied race nationally.  So this poll isn't as outlandish as it first appears.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

MD - has had some issues outside of his home area, they're v strong in the South, but anywhere else they really aren't much better than a coin toss.

[traininthedistance]

Well, Nate Silver seems to think M-D is a pretty good pollster, albeit one with a definite R house effect.  So, genuine good result for Romney, but not quite the slam dunk surge our Republicans are wishing for.

I have no problem believing that Obama only wins Minnesota by 5 or 6 while still eking out a PV win and taking the EV by a bunch- the state is probably trending a bit R, and remember Obama only actually won by 10 last time.  

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah, Obama's margin in MN in 2008 was on par with his IA margin, while he had 16 and 14 wins in WI and MI. That's not to say I buy this poll.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mason-Dixon is horrible. I don't know why it's so respected on this forum, they're almost worst than ARG and Zogby.

They did well in the first half of the previous decade, and so reputation develops. But I've not seen much sign of that sort of respect for them this year, though I don't read poll threads so often now.

[Ty440]

This is actually rather good. Slight leads in places like MN, terrible deficits in places like Missouri and across the South.

I'm starting to think Romney might have to win the PV by 3-4% (Of course this statement will probably look silly when all the votes are in next week...it's not a very probable thing....but this year is crazy) to win the Electoral College.

That's just frightening. So Romney might win 52-47 yet still lose.

Anyone hoping for "sweet payback" to show that America is "not a democracy" is sick and despicable. Wishing for a failure in the system is terrible, and despite the recent brush with it in 2000 highly improbable again. If Romney is up 5% nationally, the swing states will fall, and potentially other unexpected ones as well. Remember Indiana 2008? Anyone seriously thinking Romney would lose the electoral college while winning the pv by 4 or 5 is kidding themselves.

Well i guess i plead guilty to being "sick and despicable " then.  If racism have been proven to cost Obama 2% then i have no problem whatsoever with Obama losing the popular vote by up to 2% but winning the EC. Serves all the racists right.

Voting against someone simply because they happened to be born a different skin color, that's what's "sick and despicable"

[dirks]

This is actually rather good. Slight leads in places like MN, terrible deficits in places like Missouri and across the South.

I'm starting to think Romney might have to win the PV by 3-4% (Of course this statement will probably look silly when all the votes are in next week...it's not a very probable thing....but this year is crazy) to win the Electoral College.

That's just frightening. So Romney might win 52-47 yet still lose.

Anyone hoping for "sweet payback" to show that America is "not a democracy" is sick and despicable. Wishing for a failure in the system is terrible, and despite the recent brush with it in 2000 highly improbable again. If Romney is up 5% nationally, the swing states will fall, and potentially other unexpected ones as well. Remember Indiana 2008? Anyone seriously thinking Romney would lose the electoral college while winning the pv by 4 or 5 is kidding themselves.

Well i guess i plead guilty to being "sick and despicable " then.  If racism have been proven to cost Obama 2% then i have no problem whatsoever with Obama losing the popular vote by up to 2% but winning the EC. Serves all the racists right.

Voting against someone simply because they happened to be born a different skin color, that's what's "sick and despicable"

can you just stop branding people racists and give it a rest already. Most who vote against obama do so because of his policies. Black people can be plenty racist themselves. And homophobic

[Fargobison]

Now the Romney campaign is considering a trip to MN...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/5hauser/status/262640002301849600

[dirks]

Now the Romney campaign is considering a trip to MN...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/5hauser/status/262640002301849600

as they should with obamas lead slipping....

[Likely Voter]

If Romney campaigns in MN it wont look like he is a momentum candidate expanding the map, it will look like he is a desperate candidate trying to find a path around Ohio.

[dirks]

If Romney campaigns in MN it wont look like he is a momentum candidate expanding the map, it will look like he is a desperate candidate trying to find a path around Ohio.

nope, latest polls has obumma only +3 in MN. Romneys internals must be close to that, or better.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Romney campaigns in MN it wont look like he is a momentum candidate expanding the map, it will look like he is a desperate candidate trying to find a path around Ohio.

nope, latest polls has obumma only +3 in MN. Romneys internals must be close to that, or better.

As opposed to the other polls? the ones not produced by a firm with a pretty shaky record in the Midwest... PLEASE, devote time, energy and resources here...

Obama wins by 7+

[Lief 🗽]

The Romney campaign gets more and more desperate by the hour, it seems.

[Seriously?]

If Romney campaigns in MN it wont look like he is a momentum candidate expanding the map, it will look like he is a desperate candidate trying to find a path around Ohio.

Seriously?

1) I think any rational person will agree that if Romney wins Minnesota of all states, he wins Ohio with ease. Minnesota is a tier 2 state to any Republican win. (Akin to NC going into the D camp, you'd be looking at a 300-350 EV scenario).
2) Virginia is pretty much closed off to campaigning for a few days.
3) It's not like Romney can't do a MSP-suburbs/pick a city in Wisconsin two-stopper with ease.
4) Any trip into the MSP area, will be beamed into Northwestern WI. It's a two-fer.
5) Expanding the map and making your opponent play defense is NOT a bad tactic. Especially when your opponent may be stuck in DC for a few days being President.

[Ty440]

If Romney campaigns in MN it wont look like he is a momentum candidate expanding the map, it will look like he is a desperate candidate trying to find a path around Ohio.

nope, latest polls has obumma only +3 in MN. Romneys internals must be close to that, or better.

Go ahead Romney ,  go for it I encourage it greatly , you can do it,you can win Minnesota!....LOL