MN: Mason-Dixon: Obama with Slight Lead in Minnesota

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Minnesota President by Mason-Dixon on 2012-10-26

Summary: D: 47%, R: 44%, I: 2%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[krazen1211]

Romney is surging across the midwest.

[Franzl]

This is actually rather good. Slight leads in places like MN, terrible deficits in places like Missouri and across the South.

I'm starting to think Romney might have to win the PV by 3-4% (Of course this statement will probably look silly when all the votes are in next week...it's not a very probable thing....but this year is crazy) to win the Electoral College.

[Tender Branson]

Romney is surging across the midwest.

In 2008, many polls were really off in MN, like SUSA:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=27

Ironically, the Atlas aggregate of the last 3 polls got it right: Obama by 10 ...

[J. J.]

M-D is phenomenal.  I think Romney is trending upward in the Heartland. 

[Tender Branson]

M-D is phenomenal.  I think Romney is trending upward in the Heartland. 

Not always.

We'll see soon if M-D had a rightwing lean this year or not.

[Simfan34]

This is actually rather good. Slight leads in places like MN, terrible deficits in places like Missouri and across the South.

I'm starting to think Romney might have to win the PV by 3-4% (Of course this statement will probably look silly when all the votes are in next week...it's not a very probable thing....but this year is crazy) to win the Electoral College.

That's just frightening. So Romney might win 52-47 yet still lose.

[dirks]

So is this the same as the Star Tribune Poll???

http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/176113071.html?refer=y

[Landslide Lyndon]

This and their Florida senate poll make it pretty clear that Mason-Dixon has a 3-4 points Republican lean.

[Franzl]

This is actually rather good. Slight leads in places like MN, terrible deficits in places like Missouri and across the South.

I'm starting to think Romney might have to win the PV by 3-4% (Of course this statement will probably look silly when all the votes are in next week...it's not a very probable thing....but this year is crazy) to win the Electoral College.

That's just frightening. So Romney might win 52-47 yet still lose.

Ah but those are the rules, we're a republic, not a democracy! States Rights!

Payback is sweet

[Cliffy]

This and their Florida senate poll make it pretty clear that Mason-Dixon has a 3-4 points Republican lean.

Well turnout in 08 was D+4, this shows turnout at D+5, sounds like a lefty lean.....

 

[Franzl]

This and their Florida senate poll make it pretty clear that Mason-Dixon has a 3-4 points Republican lean.

Well turnout in 08 was D+4, this shows turnout at D+5, sounds like a lefty lean.....

 

Banging my head against the wall would truly be more productive than trying to reason with you.

[Vosem]

This and their Florida senate poll make it pretty clear that Mason-Dixon has a 3-4 points Republican lean.

Well turnout in 08 was D+4, this shows turnout at D+5, sounds like a lefty lean.....

 

Considering '08 wasn't as bad a year for MN Republicans as for national Republicans, and that nowadays the Republican state Legislature is very unpopular, a small shift towards the Democrats in terms of party ID in Minnesota is not impossible.

[Seriously?]

This is actually rather good. Slight leads in places like MN, terrible deficits in places like Missouri and across the South.

I'm starting to think Romney might have to win the PV by 3-4% (Of course this statement will probably look silly when all the votes are in next week...it's not a very probable thing....but this year is crazy) to win the Electoral College.

I highly doubt an election can go +3 or +4 in any direction and the electoral college ends up going the other way. It's not like the Southern vote isn't cancelled out by the Northeast, where Obama is cruising in New York and that California doesn't basically cancel out Texas.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Romney is surging across the midwest.

I literally predicted your post.

Krazey, for years,  I've picked opebo as the best poster on this board.  You've replaced him.  Good show. 

[Seriously?]

This and their Florida senate poll make it pretty clear that Mason-Dixon has a 3-4 points Republican lean.

Or you could look at it that it's a Minnesota "Red" Star poll, which generally tilts Democrat.

I'd take the more realistic view that it is what it is. A data point.

Given the 2008 actual numbers and assuming a +7 or +8 shift in the electorate when Independents self identify per Gallup, these numbers are not outside of the realm of possibility.

[Franzl]

This is actually rather good. Slight leads in places like MN, terrible deficits in places like Missouri and across the South.

I'm starting to think Romney might have to win the PV by 3-4% (Of course this statement will probably look silly when all the votes are in next week...it's not a very probable thing....but this year is crazy) to win the Electoral College.

I highly doubt an election can go +3 or +4 in any direction and the electoral college ends up going the other way. It's not like the Southern vote isn't cancelled out by the Northeast, where Obama is cruising in New York and that California doesn't basically cancel out Texas.

Again, it isn't a likely prospect. I doubt it as well. But it would be very very amusing and just

[Phony Moderate]

So this election could end up looking like an hilarious President Forever result.

[Mehmentum]

I'm sort of hoping that Obama wins the election despite loosing the popular vote.  There might finally be the political support to abolish the Electoral College. 

[minionofmidas]

MD on MN, this time of year, 2008: Obama by 8 (too R by 2), Coleman by 6 (too R by 6).
MD on MN, this time of year, 2006: Klobuchar by 10 (too R by 10), Hatch by 2 (too D by 3).
MD on MN, this time of year, 2004: Bush by 1 (too R by 5)

Less than stellar, don't you think? They don't seem to have polled the state in 2010.

[DrScholl]

If this was the case, there would be big money being dropped here, but that's not what is happening right now.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Minnesota won't even be close. Understand, folks? That's all I'm gonna say about it.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

MN will probably trend Democratic. Maybe Obama +7 or so?

[Brittain33]

MD on MN, this time of year, 2008: Obama by 8 (too R by 2), Coleman by 6 (too R by 6).
MD on MN, this time of year, 2006: Klobuchar by 10 (too R by 10), Hatch by 2 (too D by 3).
MD on MN, this time of year, 2004: Bush by 1 (too R by 5)

Less than stellar, don't you think? They don't seem to have polled the state in 2010.

It looks like that Hatch poll preceded his calling a reporter a "whore," costing him the election.

[You kip if you want to...]

This is actually rather good. Slight leads in places like MN, terrible deficits in places like Missouri and across the South.

I'm starting to think Romney might have to win the PV by 3-4% (Of course this statement will probably look silly when all the votes are in next week...it's not a very probable thing....but this year is crazy) to win the Electoral College.

That's just frightening. So Romney might win 52-47 yet still lose.

Sure is.