Colorado

[Likely Voter]

Currently the RCP avg is tied in CO. The last 3 polls have Obama tied or ahead, yet CO is being treated as part of Romney's baseline before he tips OH or WI. Dems underpolled in CO in 2004, 2008 and 2010. Is CO Obama's hidden trump card? Or has Romney returned it back to the old days and run up the white suburban vote so far that the Latino vote isn't enough for Obama?

[opebo]

Quite narrow Obama win, and without it and Ohio Romney has no possible electoral win:

Wait, correction, I'm wrong, there is a way to 269 without Colorado or Ohio - through the Maine congressional district:

[RI]

However Jefferson County votes, that's pretty much how Colorado will vote.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Colorado is the lynch-pin of Romney's whole strategy as far as I'm concerned.

[Skill and Chance]

I think we've seen enough about CO in the past 4 years to know that ties go to the D's there.

Perhaps the most interesting thing about CO is the Obama-wins-without-Ohio map:

[Ljube]

Wait, correction, I'm wrong, there is a way to 269 without Colorado or Ohio - through the Maine congressional district:

Let’s hope Romney ekes out this narrowest of victories for the sake of mankind.

[Lief 🗽]

If the race is still a tie going into election day, then Obama will win it. Democrats underpoll in Colorado, not as massively as they do in Nevada, but it's still significant.

[Likely Voter]

Picking up on the 'banking on WI' thread, here is another map which becomes an Obama win, even if Romney wins WI, IA and NH flank attack.

So both Romney's OH=Victory and his WI Flank attack rely on CO. He could pull off the WI+NH+IA flank attack if he added ME-2. But that seems like quite the bank shot. It is also winning in the House, which is quite the mess.

So my point is, if there is any state Romney seems to be 'banking' on it is CO, and I'm not sure that is really money in the bank for him. His chances of winning are at best 50/50 IMHO. 538 only gives him 43%.   Interestingly it is about 50/50 on inTrade right now.

[Ty440]

Just look what happened in Buck vs Bennett

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/co/colorado_senate_buck_vs_bennet-1106.html

If I'm Romney and not ahead by at least 3 a day before election day and above 50% , I'm sweating.

Obama holds N.H. , Wisconsin,  Iowa, and Colorado, it's checkmate regardless of Ohio.

[Ljube]

Just look what happened in Buck vs Bennett

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/co/colorado_senate_buck_vs_bennet-1106.html

If I'm Romney and not ahead by at least 3 a day before election day and above 50% , I'm sweating.

Obama holds N.H. , Wisconsin,  Iowa, and Colorado, it's checkmate regardless of Ohio.

Buck was a loon.

[Stirring Wolf🥣🐺]

I agree Colorado is essential for Romney's chances at the white house.  But I feel if he wins enough of the other states necessary to get to 270, then Colorado will be flipping GOP before them.

[Skill and Chance]

Picking up on the 'banking on WI' thread, here is another map which becomes an Obama win, even if Romney wins WI, IA and NH flank attack.

So both Romney's OH=Victory and his WI Flank attack rely on CO. He could pull off the WI+NH+IA flank attack if he added ME-2. But that seems like quite the bank shot. It is also winning in the House, which is quite the mess.

So my point is, if there is any state Romney seems to be 'banking' on it is CO, and I'm not sure that is really money in the bank for him. His chances of winning are at best 50/50 IMHO. 538 only gives him 43%.   Interestingly it is about 50/50 on inTrade right now.

He would win in the House, but he would likely be stuck with Biden as VP.

[LiberalJunkie]

If Obama wins Ohio and Colorado it's over.

[5280]

As of now, Jefferson county has more absentee ballots and early voting turned in for the GOP than the Democrats, so CO will go for Romney this election.  Romney has a better chance getting CO than OH, WI, NH, and IA.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Romney is the correct answer.

[Mehmentum]

Colorado seems to be in the same boat as Virginia.  Either one of these states could render a win by Romney in WI or OH moot. 

[Likely Voter]

Colorado seems to be in the same boat as Virginia.  Either one of these states could render a win by Romney in WI or OH moot. 

Exactly. If you were to think of this like a war, then NC and FL is Romney territory, NV+WI+IA+OH+NH is Obama territory and VA and CO are no man's land. After the first debate Romney did seem to take over the VA/CO territory and start chipping away at Obama's wall, but in the last week or so Obama seems to have moved the battlefront back to CO/VA while still holding his last line of defense intact. So all the talk of Romney winning by flipping OH or flanking OH is moot until he again regains solid leads in CO and VA.

[Gass3268]

Colorado seems to be in the same boat as Virginia.  Either one of these states could render a win by Romney in WI or OH moot. 

Exactly. If you were to think of this like a war, then NC and FL is Romney territory, NV+WI+IA+OH+NH is Obama territory and VA and CO are no man's land. After the first debate Romney did seem to take over the VA/CO territory and start chipping away at Obama's wall, but in the last week or so Obama seems to have moved the battlefront back to CO/VA while still holding his last line of defense intact. So all the talk of Romney winning by flipping OH or flanking OH is moot until he again regains solid leads in CO and VA.

This a great analogy

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

See my prediction map, though CO and VA are the two states I'm least certain about.

[5280]

Romney wins, he takes CO, OH and VA.  Obama wins, he takes the same states mentioned.

[Maxwell]

Romney prolly takes Colorado and Obama takes Virginia, or the other way around, IDK.

[Yank2133]

Obama.....but he takes it by a very slim margin.

[milhouse24]

Mormon Power!

Mormon GOTV volunteers will win Colorado.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Last week I had Romney winning it, 50-48... but now, I have Obama winning it by a similar margin.

[JFK-Democrat]

I really want Obama to win this state!. The results will no doubt be close on Nov 6th. However, the demographics is trending the way of the Democrats. Once we lock down Colorado and convert Arizona, fairly easy to do - with Latinos and California transplants .

Democrats will have a nice firm grip on the fastest growing states in the west. No point in mentioning Nevada (now a Cali satellite state) or New Mexico since they are gone for Republicans. I really want the D's to box in Republicans in, in the interior west

The influence of California on the politics of some of those western states (Nevada, colorado, Arizona, heck even Montana) cannot be understated.