NM: Public Policy Polling: Obama still comfortably ahead in New Mexico

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: New Mexico President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-10-25

Summary: D: 53%, R: 44%, I: 0%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

Remember when this state was one of the closest state in the country two years in a row? Good times.

[opebo]

Remember when this state was one of the closest state in the country two years in a row? Good times.

We are witnessing the sinking of that terrible vessel of wrath, the GOP.  Of course it will get resuscitated in some form down the road, but it probably won't be a form that relies 100% on racist white fear.

[dirks]

Nobody expected Romney to win this state...but he is doing better than McCain by 6 points

[Franzl]

Nobody expected Romney to win this state...but he is doing better than McCain by 6 points

What a surprise.

[dirks]

McCains home state was next door, he should've done better

[Lambsbread]

Surprised Independents are pulling 0% because Gary Johnson

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Surprised Independents are pulling 0% because Gary Johnson

The poll question made it sound like only Obama and Romney are on the ballot, which is not the case, as all four of the candidates that were in the Third Party Debate are on the New Mexico ballot.  While I don't think he'll do as well in New Mexico as some of the other polls do, Johnson should get 2 % easy and maybe even 3%.  based on other pollster's polls, that looks to be coming mainly out of Romney's total in New Mexico.

[LiberalJunkie]

McCains home state was next door, he should've done better

That's a horrible analogy.

[Mister Twister]

McCains home state was next door, he should've done better

McCain's margin in Arizona was too small to produce mega coattails.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

OMG... Obama is under-performing in a state he massively over-performed in... OMG!!!

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

McCains home state was next door, he should've done better

Obama should be performing better in Kentucky, and Romney should be performing better in Vermont, New York, and Rhode Island.

[Gustaf]

Um, New Mexico was 8% above Obama's national margin in 2008. If we assume a national tie right now, this is Obama +7%, so...

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Remember when this state was one of the closest state in the country two years in a row? Good times.

We are witnessing the sinking of that terrible vessel of wrath, the GOP.  Of course it will get resuscitated in some form down the road, but it probably won't be a form that relies 100% on racist white fear.

It's in it's final death throes.  After this year,  whites will make up 49% of the U.S. population.  A wonderful transition for a world power to go through. 

[opebo]

Um, New Mexico was 8% above Obama's national margin in 2008. If we assume a national tie right now, this is Obama +7%, so...

Hispanic state, probably the polls are 2% or so skewed in favore of Romney due to underpolling of Spanish speaking people, maybe even another 2% because PPP doesn't poll cell phones.  could be 58/41 Obama, or anywya 57.5

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Um, New Mexico was 8% above Obama's national margin in 2008. If we assume a national tie right now, this is Obama +7%, so...

Hispanic state, probably the polls are 2% or so skewed in favore of Romney due to underpolling of Spanish speaking people, maybe even another 2% because PPP doesn't poll cell phones.  could be 58/41 Obama, or anywya 57.5

The 'skewed polls' rhetoric is just as bad coming from the left whatever the inks opebo is as from the right.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

As I suspected, Romney is dominating in the red states (specifically Mormonia), doing well for a Republican in the blue states, and Obama is doing well in the swing states.

[greenforest32]

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A double-digit win looks likely with demographics like that, unless Obama does much worse with NM whites than he did in 2008 (got about 42% or so I think).

[opebo]

Um, New Mexico was 8% above Obama's national margin in 2008. If we assume a national tie right now, this is Obama +7%, so...

Hispanic state, probably the polls are 2% or so skewed in favore of Romney due to underpolling of Spanish speaking people, maybe even another 2% because PPP doesn't poll cell phones.  could be 58/41 Obama, or anywya 57.5

The 'skewed polls' rhetoric is just as bad coming from the left whatever the inks opebo is as from the right.

I knew someone would atteck me for that particular term.. but what I mean is just that Hispanics tend to be underpolled, thats all.   Anyway the better point would be to suggest that this polls margin should be compared to New Mexico polls from a week or two prior to the 2008 election rather than the results of the election itself.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

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A double-digit win looks likely with demographics like that, unless Obama does much worse with NM whites than he did in 2008 (got about 42% or so I think).

New Mexican whites are basically like whites in West Texas.

[5280]

Mexicans in NM make it difficult for the GOP to win the state.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Mexicans in NM make it difficult for the GOP to win the state.

Not just Mexicans; NM has a large white Spanish population (which is more Lean D), as well as a lot of Native Americans (the most Democratic bloc barring blacks).