Which underdog Senate candidate is most likely to win?

[Ogre Mage]

This is somewhat similar to an earlier poll, but I thought it was worth asking.  I am discounting Montana, Virginia and Wisconsin because I think those races are evenly matched.

[Vote UKIP!]

I don't know if Donnelly counts as an underdog, since he has given Mourdock a run for his money, but, what the hey.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hesitating between Berkeley and Donnelly. In the light of Mourdock's rapid process of Akinization, I'll give it to Donnelly.

[BM]

Shelley Berkley is the clear favorite to win.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

At this point, I'd say a handful of these candidates are even money to win. Hard narrowing it down to just one, but Indiana is the obvious choice.

[RogueBeaver]

I'd say Scott Brown or Josh Mandel. For the Dems, Heitkamp even if she probably won't. If PPC prevails across both red and blue states then they'll all lose.

[SPQR]

Donnelly
Berkley
Heitkamp

[Holmes]

North Dakota being a small state and Heitkamp running a local campaign, I feel like it's entirely possible to have a large discrepancy between the presidential numbers and senate numbers on election night. So her.

[Zioneer]

I think Carmona has a decent chance of winning, if he can get out the Hispanic vote.

[opebo]

I think Carmona has a decent chance of winning, if he can get out the Hispanic vote.

Yes, he does.  So does Berkeley. 

The real herione here would be Heitkamp - she's got nothing up there - nothing but white Republicans, and if she wins it it'll be purely on her own personal appeal.

[Talleyrand]

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Linda McMahon pulled it off in Connecticut.

[Maxwell]

Brown

[BM]

What world are you living in? This is Massachusetts in a presidential year. A Republican trailing in the polls is completely believable, and it's not like he's been losing the whole time. He was leading but lost it with his pitiful debate performances, by focusing on personal issues, and by voters realizing he's pretty much going to vote with Mitch McConnell on every important issue.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'd say Scott Brown or Josh Mandel. For the Dems, Heitkamp even if she probably won't. If PPC prevails across both red and blue states then they'll all lose.

Mandel won't win.  I know multiple Santorum supporters who are voting for Sherrod Brown because of how sleezy Mandel is, it won't be a landslide, but trust me Mandel's not winning.  In fact, he seriously damaged his political career with this campaign.

[Lief 🗽]

Joe Donnelly is now the favorite in Indiana, not the underdog. Of the remaining candidates, Berkley will win, as I've been saying for months.

[7,052,770]

Since Donnelly isn't an underdog, Kerrey.