Quebec Municipal Elections 2013

[DL]

A few random observations on the Montreal election...in many ways Projet Montreal is a bit of reincarnation of the old Montreal Citizens Movement of the 70s and 80s...that party took power under Dore then fell apart in the 90s and the remnants of it got absorbed by Tremblay's Union Montreal...as a result old MCM stalwarts like Marvin Rotrand and Helen Fotopoulos ended up being part of Tremblay's party...Projet Montreal is showing strength in all the same areas where the MCM was strong before it swept to power in the mid 80s....This time around Rotrand ended up joining Coalition Montreal while Fotopoulos went down to defeat after 30 years on council to a Projet montreal candidate.

Here is what i want to know - Coderre clearly has his 27 seats behind him and Projet Montreal has a solid 20 seats as the "official opposition"...what happens to all the other remnants? Coalition Montreal has no Cote, no Harel and just 6 seats...do they stay in existence or do they close up shop and get absorbed either by Coderre's party or by PM? What about Joly's party whihc elected 4 people all as part of her little personality cult? She apparently wants one of them to quit and let her run in a byelection to get on council...how likely is that to happen and if she is not on council - how long do these 4-5 stragglers elected in her last before they also decide to throw in their lot with one of the big parties?

[MaxQue]

Well, let's look each elected councillor of those paries, then, DL.

Mélanie Joly:
Normand Marinacci, borough mayor of Île-Bizard--Sainte-Geneviève. The party control the borough council, too. He is a pre-merger mayor of Île-Bizard and, as such, I suppose he is quite independant from her. He won't move.
Justine McIntyre, Bois-de-Liesse, Pierrefonds-Roxboro. She seems pretty non-descript (locally involved former professional pianist). No clue.
Lorraine Pagé, Sault-au-Récollet, Ahuntsic-Cartierville. A former union leader whose career ended under clouds (she was accused of shoplifting, but won her trial). She didn't bothered to run to retire, I suppose
Steve Shanahan, Peter-McGill, Ville-Marie. Another person with local involvement.

If one of those resign, it would be McIntyre or Shanahan, but I think she will wait a genuine vacancy.

Coalition Montréal, who's left:
Benoît Dorais, mayor of South-West
Réal Ménard, mayor of Mercier--Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, former Bloc MP
Russell Copeman, mayor of Côte-des-Neiges--Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, former Liberal MNA
Domenico Moschella, Saint-Léonard-East (the Coderre candidate was withdrawn, and he beated Projet 51% to 49%)
Elsie Lefebvre, Villeray, former PQ MNA
Marvin Rotrand, Snowdon, Côte-des-Neiges--Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, municipal councillor since 1982 for MCM and UM.

I find difficult to believe than all those people would join the same party. It's a random list of people with a previous political career and, because of that, an huge personal vote.

[DL]

I wasn't suggesting that the Joly and CM councillors would join another party en masse - I wonder if they will just fall apart...perhaps people like Page and Menard etc...wend their way to Projet Montreal while Copeman and Rotrand and other more establishment figures join up with Coderre

[lilTommy]

Well, let's look each elected councillor of those paries, then, DL.

Mélanie Joly:
Normand Marinacci, borough mayor of Île-Bizard--Sainte-Geneviève. The party control the borough council, too. He is a pre-merger mayor of Île-Bizard and, as such, I suppose he is quite independant from her. He won't move.
Justine McIntyre, Bois-de-Liesse, Pierrefonds-Roxboro. She seems pretty non-descript (locally involved former professional pianist). No clue.
Lorraine Pagé, Sault-au-Récollet, Ahuntsic-Cartierville. A former union leader whose career ended under clouds (she was accused of shoplifting, but won her trial). She didn't bothered to run to retire, I suppose
Steve Shanahan, Peter-McGill, Ville-Marie. Another person with local involvement.

If one of those resign, it would be McIntyre or Shanahan, but I think she will wait a genuine vacancy.

Coalition Montréal, who's left:
Benoît Dorais, mayor of South-West
Réal Ménard, mayor of Mercier--Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, former Bloc MP
Russell Copeman, mayor of Côte-des-Neiges--Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, former Liberal MNA
Domenico Moschella, Saint-Léonard-East (the Coderre candidate was withdrawn, and he beated Projet 51% to 49%)
Elsie Lefebvre, Villeray, former PQ MNA
Marvin Rotrand, Snowdon, Côte-des-Neiges--Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, municipal councillor since 1982 for MCM and UM.

I find difficult to believe than all those people would join the same party. It's a random list of people with a previous political career and, because of that, an huge personal vote.

I could see Lorraine Page being approached by PM; she has the "bio" that would fit with the party coming form a union background, she would have a relative easy fit with the party... so would Justine McIntyre an artist/musician (generalizing not knowing too much about either here) As i mentioned i had a number of NDP friends both supporting PM, and to a lesser extent Joly. Now that Equipe Melanie Joly is basically nothing, i could see those more progressives turn towards PM.

CM is a mess; I'd say a break up. the CdN-NDG members (Copeman and Rotrand) start a borough list in all likelihood... If Joly survives as a group she could go after them to join her group. These guys have almost nothing in common with former PQ/BQ members/supporters Dorais, Menard & Lefebvre... a very francophone oriented party could emerge out of those three. Or, if their progressive sides take hold they could try and get in with PM, but i don't know if that would be best for the party... they could just all end up being Indie mayors

[Hatman 🍁]

Council map:



I must admit some of the borough parties colours are arbitrary. But, I only have so many colours in my key.

I also had to shift the key by 5%, because of the numerous <25% districts.

[Hatman 🍁]

City wide results for borough mayor (includes Montreal mayoral result in Ville-Marie):

Equipe Coderre: 30.9%
Projet Montreal: 29.3%
Coalition Montreal: 18.2%
Vrai changement: 11.8%
Integrite Montreal: 1.8%
Various borough parties: 7.3%
Independents: 0.7%

[Hatman 🍁]

City wide result for council (includes borough mayor results for Outremont and Ile Bizard-Ste Genevieve where there are no separate council races):

Equipe Coderre: 29.43%
Projet Montreal: 29.38% (211 vote difference!)
Coalition Montreal: 18.7%
Vrai changement: 12.9%
Integrite Montreal: 1.5%
Various borough parties: 6.1%
Independents: 1.9%

Not much difference from the borough races.

[lilTommy]

City wide results for borough mayor (includes Montreal mayoral result in Ville-Marie):

Equipe Coderre: 30.9%
Projet Montreal: 29.3%
Coalition Montreal: 18.2%
Vrai changement: 11.8%
Integrite Montreal: 1.8%
Various borough parties: 7.3%
Independents: 0.7%

It's sad with these numbers that PM only won two Borough mayors and CM won three and EC won 8... someone can correct me though

[lilTommy]

City wide result for council (includes borough mayor results for Outremont and Ile Bizard-Ste Genevieve where there are no separate council races):

Equipe Coderre: 29.43%
Projet Montreal: 29.38% (211 vote difference!)
Coalition Montreal: 18.7%
Vrai changement: 12.9%
Integrite Montreal: 1.5%
Various borough parties: 6.1%
Independents: 1.9%

Not much difference from the borough races.

This looks to reflect the results better: EC 27 PM 20 Indie 8 CM 6 VCJ 4...
Plus i believe two recounts will occur no? one EC leading (Saint-Sulpice) and the other VCJ leading (Sault-au-Recollet), both in Ahuntsic-Cartierville

[MaxQue]

This looks to reflect the results better: EC 27 PM 20 Indie 8 CM 6 VCJ 4...
Plus i believe two recounts will occur no? one EC leading (Saint-Sulpice) and the other VCJ leading (Sault-au-Recollet), both in Ahuntsic-Cartierville

More than that, I think than recounts may happen there (recounts happens if a candidate requests them).
Saint-Sulpice (Ahuntsic-Cartierville): Pierre Desrochers (perhaps the future president of the executive council, EC) won by 9 votes over Martin Bazinet (PM)
Sault-au-Récollet (Ahuntsic-Cartierville): Lorraine Pagé (former union leader, VCM) won by 8 votes over Nathalie Hotte (EC).
Côte-des-Neiges (Côte-des-Neiges--Notre-Dame-de-Grâce): Magda Popeanu (PM) won by 77 over Helen Fotopoulos (a important player of the Tremblay era, EC).
South-West mayorship: Benoît Dorais (CM) won by 115 votes over Jason Prince (PM).
Saint-Léonard-East (Saint-Léonard): Domenico Moschella (CM) won by 80 votes over Roberta Peressini (PM).
Saint-Jacques (Ville-Marie): Richard Bergeron (PM leader) won by 91 votes over Philippe Schnobb (former TV host, EC).
François-Perrault (Villeray--Saint-Michel--Parc-Extension): Sylvain Ouellet (PM) won by 8 votes over Claude Bricault (EC)

[lilTommy]

This looks to reflect the results better: EC 27 PM 20 Indie 8 CM 6 VCJ 4...
Plus i believe two recounts will occur no? one EC leading (Saint-Sulpice) and the other VCJ leading (Sault-au-Recollet), both in Ahuntsic-Cartierville

More than that, I think than recounts may happen there (recounts happens if a candidate requests them).
Saint-Sulpice (Ahuntsic-Cartierville): Pierre Desrochers (perhaps the future president of the executive council, EC) won by 9 votes over Martin Bazinet (PM)
Sault-au-Récollet (Ahuntsic-Cartierville): Lorraine Pagé (former union leader, VCM) won by 8 votes over Nathalie Hotte (EC).
Côte-des-Neiges (Côte-des-Neiges--Notre-Dame-de-Grâce): Magda Popeanu (PM) won by 77 over Helen Fotopoulos (a important player of the Tremblay era, EC).
South-West mayorship: Benoît Dorais (CM) won by 115 votes over Jason Prince (PM).
Saint-Léonard-East (Saint-Léonard): Domenico Moschella (CM) won by 80 votes over Roberta Peressini (PM).
Saint-Jacques (Ville-Marie): Richard Bergeron (PM leader) won by 91 votes over Philippe Schnobb (former TV host, EC).
François-Perrault (Villeray--Saint-Michel--Parc-Extension): Sylvain Ouellet (PM) won by 8 votes over Claude Bricault (EC)

Found some more, mostly borough councillor possible recounts...
Outremont Borough Councillor for Joseph-Beaubien: Celine Forget won by 11 over Philipe Tomlinson PM
Monque Vallee EC 135 votes over Luciano Di Sante, Pro-LaSalle in Cecil-P.Newman LaSalle
Josee Troilo 29 votes over Dino Masanotti EC borough councillor Cecil-P.Newman
Serge Declos 61 votes over Anju Dhillon EC borough councillor Cecil-P.Newman

[Hatman 🍁]

In St-Leonard East, the amount of rejected ballots for council was higher than the winning candidate.

[lilTommy]

Someone can correct my French, Bergeron won't run in 2017 and will call a leadership race in two years. If i read that right, he will take his seat in Saint-Jacques. 

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/montreal/201311/06/01-4707716-bergeron-quittera-la-politique-municipale-dici-deux-ans.php

[MaxQue]

Someone can correct my French, Bergeron won't run in 2017 and will call a leadership race in two years. If i read that right, he will take his seat in Saint-Jacques. 

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/montreal/201311/06/01-4707716-bergeron-quittera-la-politique-municipale-dici-deux-ans.php

The leadership will be in the next 12 to 24 months. He will take his seat and is upset at Coderre for asking a recount.  Also, the favorite to replace him are Luc Ferrandez, mayor of the Plateau and François Croteau, mayor of Rosemont. I would very much prefer Croteau, since Ferrandez is a controversial hard-liner which can't win Montréal mayorship.

[RogueBeaver]

Yep, that's all correct.

[lilTommy]

Someone can correct my French, Bergeron won't run in 2017 and will call a leadership race in two years. If i read that right, he will take his seat in Saint-Jacques. 

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/montreal/201311/06/01-4707716-bergeron-quittera-la-politique-municipale-dici-deux-ans.php

The leadership will be in the next 12 to 24 months. He will take his seat and is upset at Coderre for asking a recount.  Also, the favorite to replace him are Luc Ferrandez, mayor of the Plateau and François Croteau, mayor of Rosemont. I would very much prefer Croteau, since Ferrandez is a controversial hard-liner which can't win Montréal mayorship.

Croteau sounds like he wont run... but a year from now, might be a different story. The last thing the party needs is another polarizing figure, Fernandez might be great (obviously with his results) for Le Plateau, but if there looking to win the city wide mayoralty, they need to think bigger picture.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some council tallies:

Quebec City:

Equipe Labeaume: 64.8% (9.4% less than mayor race)
Democratie Quebec: 31.9% (7.9% higher than mayor race)


Laval:

Movement lavallos: 35.8% (8.4% less than mayor)
Action Laval: 21.2% (3.1% less)
PSC: 10.3% (0.6% less)
Option Laval: 9.3% (3.1% less)
Other (mostly independents): 23.4% (!)

[Hatman 🍁]

Gatineau mayoral results by district: http://www.gatineau.ca/docs/la_ville/election_municipale_2013/resultats_mairie.pdf

Pedneaud-Jobin won all but one district, including his home district of Buckingham where he won 71%. The one district he lost was Hull-Wright, which is the downtown area. Weird. I guess P-J's platform of decentralization was opposed by the people in the central city.

I always thought of Hull as being the most left wing part of Gatineau, since it's the central area, and the BQ has traditionally done better there than in other parts of the city, but municipally it has been anti-left wing. For example, last election, Pierre Ducasse ran in the district and lost. PIERRE DUCASSE!

[Poirot]

Quebec City

Interestingly, DQ's best District was an open race with no incumbent, in St Louis-Sillery

It could be because of the quality of the candidate. Shoiry being a former mayor of Sillery. He was chosen to be like the leader of opposition in council. Potentially the future leader of the party.

I've read Labeaume lives in Saint-Louis-Sillery district.
For mayor's vote, Labeaume did the worst in Cap-aux-Diamants, followed by Montcalm-Saint-Sacrement and Saint-Louis-Sillery.

[Poirot]

Laval

Saint-Bruno which was the most anti-Vaillancourt District was the best district for ML. I'm not sure, but are there a lot of Italians there?

Chomedey, which is very Anglo was the best district for Gobe's Action Laval.

Saint-Bruno had the same Mouvement Lavallois candidate four years ago than this year. He is David De Cotis, president of the party and founder, so he's been a visible opposition voice for some years.

Not sure if there is a more updated or precise map, but here is an italian concentration map, map 1 on the page:
http://www.panoramitalia.com/en/life-people/traditions/fun-facts-montreal-italians/1940/

I think I located the census subdivision of the big red part. The western limit of that would be Papineau Highway. Saint-Bruno district would be just west of that red part since its eastern limit is Papineau. And on the north south axis, Saint-Bruno would have its southern limit maybe around half of the red part.

 

[Poirot]

Gatineau mayoral results by district: http://www.gatineau.ca/docs/la_ville/election_municipale_2013/resultats_mairie.pdf

Pedneaud-Jobin won all but one district, including his home district of Buckingham where he won 71%. The one district he lost was Hull-Wright, which is the downtown area. Weird. I guess P-J's platform of decentralization was opposed by the people in the central city.

I always thought of Hull as being the most left wing part of Gatineau, since it's the central area, and the BQ has traditionally done better there than in other parts of the city, but municipally it has been anti-left wing. For example, last election, Pierre Ducasse ran in the district and lost. PIERRE DUCASSE!

At first I thought it could be because Hull would benefit from the Destination Gatineau project of attracting tourists along the river in Hull that Bureau wants to do.

It could be some of that but I found out Marc Bureau was councillor of a district called Wright-Parc de la montagne. Not sure the exact limit when he was councillor but this is the map in 2009 (number5):
http://www.lapresse.ca/html/1309/Carte-B-finale.jpg

Districts have changed this election and there is now Hull-Wright (adds Hull to the south, deletes parc de la montagne in the north) . Bureau could have a good base in Wright explaining why he did best in Hull-Wright.

[Hatman 🍁]

The map has changed every election for 3 terms now, so the 2009 map is useless, I'm afraid.

You mentioned there were QC mayoral results by district? Would you happen to have the link?

[Poirot]

Municipalities adopt an electoral map about a year and a half before every election but if population by districts is within legal limits they can adopt the same map if they want (less trouble).

PDF of Quebec city mayoral election results by districts (and boroughs):
http://www.ville.quebec.qc.ca/electionsmunicipales/resultats/docs/resultats_maire_2013.pdf

In Gatineau a candidate who lost by 1 vote in a district (Rivière-Blanche) won by 1 vote after the recount. They were both independents.

And the 22 year old elected in Limbour district seems to be NDP. He got involved with the party at 14 and he has worked in an NDP MP's office.
http://www.lapresse.ca/le-droit/chroniqueurs/201311/06/01-4707698-le-conseiller-yolo.php

 

[Hatman 🍁]

So, they have to do a boundary review every 4 years? Wow. Fun, but hard to look for old election maps.

Thanks for the QC results. I might make a map, but Labeaume won every district, so more boring than the council results.

Cool that an NDP guy won in Limbour. I wonder why he didn't run for AG? Maybe he'll join the party now.

[MaxQue]

So, they have to do a boundary review every 4 years? Wow. Fun, but hard to look for old election maps.

They might. If the current map is still legal, they can keep it (as my city did this time).