Explain to me Romney's path to victory.

[Jacob]

Polls show Ohio and Wisconsin appear out of reach for Romney. Nevada is in the bag for Obama because of the Reid machine and early voting. That gives Obama 271. He's 50/50 to win in CO and VA. 56% to win NH. Chances up to 32% on intrade for Florida and 24% for NC

Intrade confirms this. Republican whale bettors tried to push Obama's numbers down but they couldn't sustain it. He rebounded to as high as 63.5 today and is still around there.

Betfair and Pinnacle (sites with sharp bettors risking millions of their own money) show Obama at ~68% to win. FiveThirtyEight doesn't look so different - 71% chance of  Obama win, prob 73% after tonight's update.

Let Detroit Go Bankrupt will end up being the BAIN of Romney's existence. Victory is impossible in Ohio because Toledo voters don't trust Romney.

Throw in Mourdock and it's all over. Dim the lights. I know Republicans must be sad, but it will be confirmed in 12 days.

[old timey villain]

I honestly have trouble figuring it out myself. But Romney is leading in many national polls. I guess they're hoping to pull out small wins in VA, WI, IA, CO, NV holding onto NC and FL and maybe making a last minute push for Ohio. The polls are very close in most of the swing states so a surge is not impossible.

[Jacob]

I honestly have trouble figuring it out myself. But Romney is leading in many national polls. I guess they're hoping to pull out small wins in VA, WI, IA, CO, NV holding onto NC and FL and maybe making a last minute push for Ohio. The polls are very close in most of the swing states so a surge is not impossible.

National polls don't mean jack. We don't elect presidents by the popular vote. If Romney was gonna catch up it would have been before debate 2. Obama stopped the bleeding and is getting a mini bump right now.

[dirks]

I dont know what the hell Intrade is but Democrats seem to be loving it.

Romney wins by winning Ohio, which is a tossup, and by winning Florida...where he leads. Then pickups in two romney leading states that went O in 2008 (nc and va) he can also be bolstered by pickups on other Obama states where he either leads or is tied...colorado, iowa, nh. Also, if we get a surprise in either PA or MI...or perhaps MN (longshot)

A big gop turnout is all it takes really, and gop enthusiasm is much higher now than it was for the doomed mccain

[Vosem]

Polls all show Romney ahead in FL, NC, and VA. (Except PPP, but if you're a Republican looking at Romney's path you discount them). Next, some say Romney's been over-performing in early voting in OH and IA (Obama leads, of course, just by way less than he did in '08, to the extent that extrapolation to Election Day seems to signify a Romney victory). There's your Romney victory. (Plus, he probably leads in NH and is even money at best for CO).

Ultimately, it comes down to if you think the polls are wrong in OH. If you think that's so (and the polls can be wrong -- they were very good in '04 and '08, so people have gotten complacent) and you can explain why, preferably with some kind of statistics, then it's easy for you to see Romney's path to victory. If you believe the polls, the logical conclusion is that '12 will be a reverse-2000, with Obama winning the EV chiefly due to Ohio but Romney winning the PV.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Jacob]

Responses just confirm my belief that Romney is screwed.

Ignoring PPP polls, disbelieving polls, etc.

You are screwed.

[dirks]

Polls all show Romney ahead in FL, NC, and VA. (Except PPP, but if you're a Republican looking at Romney's path you discount them). Next, some say Romney's been over-performing in early voting in OH and IA (Obama leads, of course, just by way less than he did in '08, to the extent that extrapolation to Election Day seems to signify a Romney victory). There's your Romney victory. (Plus, he probably leads in NH and is even money at best for CO).

Ultimately, it comes down to if you think the polls are wrong in OH. If you think that's so (and the polls can be wrong -- they were very good in '04 and '08, so people have gotten complacent) and you can explain why, preferably with some kind of statistics, then it's easy for you to see Romney's path to victory. If you believe the polls, the logical conclusion is that '12 will be a reverse-2000, with Obama winning the EV chiefly due to Ohio but Romney winning the PV.

The national polls on 08 predicted the Obama landslide, the state polls were friendlier to mccain...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

No



Somewhat inappropriately the user of this dog-vuvuzela is black, perhaps he is the two or three Black republicans left.

[CountryRoads]

How about you stop making it sound like the election is over. It's not over until someone gets to 270 on election night. You got that Mr. Arrogant?

[LastVoter]

[Joe Biden 2020]

The path of victory is the state that borders both Indiana and Pennsylvania.

[dirks]

I honestly have trouble figuring it out myself. But Romney is leading in many national polls. I guess they're hoping to pull out small wins in VA, WI, IA, CO, NV holding onto NC and FL and maybe making a last minute push for Ohio. The polls are very close in most of the swing states so a surge is not impossible.

National polls don't mean jack. We don't elect presidents by the popular vote. If Romney was gonna catch up it would have been before debate 2. Obama stopped the bleeding and is getting a mini bump right now.

You cant just discount national polls, unless you believe romney is running up totals in tx, mississippi, utah....but national pollsters are going to make sure theyre not exclusively calling in states that will artificially inflate romneys total. So nat polls are indicative of something...and they were a good predictor of obama overperforming in some states where he was tied or slightly ahead/behind in in 2008. Ignore them at your peril

[sg0508]

Romney must hold all McCain states (plus the census shift) and carry FL, OH, CO, VA, NC and IN

[Cliffy]

Romney will win Ohio not to mention all the swing states except maybe Nevada (the wave may spread to PN, WI, MI and MN, we'll see), your terrible triplets have done their best to create an illusionary fire wall.  Blue states are swinging over ten points from 08 yet you guys are delusional enough to think turnout in Ohio will mirror 08.  Your liberal triplet polls have to show a turnout => than 08 for Obama to barely win/tie Ohio, VA, CO, IA it's not going to happen and it's not happening right now.  Some of you still think you have a shot in NC, which is crazy, Fl is done, VA is done and CO is done, you have a shot at IA, NH but not much.  Romney is typically double digit leads in independents and we have a big enthusiasm gap even though you think you do and yes reality begs to differ with you.  All the movement has been to Romney even though polls have increased turnout models of dems, it's really laughable.  

Sidenote on IA, I spent the most of this week in IL and IA .  I don't even see Obama support in IL let alone IA, it's overly Romney on the ground in IA, Romney signs everywhere.  And Republicans are very excited I've talked to.  

I have the hardest time telling if you guys are serious on here or if you are just putting up the good old fight and just acting like you really have a shot for fun?    

Time is almost up and I'm glad, it's getting old listening to same old irrational excuses on why you are going to get the same turnout and win, blah, blah, blah.  And how turnout sample #s don't matter, good grief.

[Vosem]

Responses just confirm my belief that Romney is screwed.

Ignoring PPP polls

PPP's last batch sorta contradicts everyone else...

, disbelieving polls, etc.

You are screwed.

Both parties are equally guilty of this one...unless you think Democrats listen to Gallup?

National polls don't mean jack. We don't elect presidents by the popular vote. If Romney was gonna catch up it would have been before debate 2. Obama stopped the bleeding and is getting a mini bump right now.

You can extrapolate...if, nationally, Romney is ahead by a certain number among a certain demographic, behind another number in another demographic, etc., etc., you can create a map of all 50 states. They are in fact quite useful. You are right that it doesn't really matter if they show a 1-2 point lead for one candidate or another, but when the lead becomes more significant simple logic states that candidate is leading in the EC. The only candidates to have won the popular vote by more than 1% but lost the election anyway were Andrew Jackson in 1824 (because the election was thrown to the House by third candidates) and Samuel Tilden in 1876 (because the election was literally stolen). Since then it hasn't happened.

[sg0508]

Romney will win Ohio not to mention all the swing states except maybe Nevada (the wave may spread to PN, WI, MI and MN, we'll see), your terrible triplets have done their best to create an illusionary fire wall.  Blue states are swinging over ten points from 08 yet you guys are delusional enough to think turnout in Ohio will mirror 08.  Your liberal triplet polls have to show a turnout => than 08 for Obama to barely win/tie Ohio, VA, CO, IA it's not going to happen and it's not happening right now.  Some of you still think you have a shot in NC, which is crazy, Fl is done, VA is done and CO is done, you have a shot at IA, NH but not much.  Romney is typically double digit leads in independents and we have a big enthusiasm gap even though you think you do and yes reality begs to differ with you.  All the movement has been to Romney even though polls have increased turnout models of dems, it's really laughable.  

On IA and WI, I spent the most of this week in IL and IA .  I don't even see Obama support in IL let alone IA, it's overly Romney on the ground in IA, Romney signs everywhere.  And Republicans are very excited I've talked to.  

I have the hardest time telling if you guys are serious on here or if you are just putting up the good old fight and just acting like you really have a shot for fun?    

Time is almost up and I'm glad, it's getting old listening to same old irrational excuses on why you are going to get the same turnout and win, blah, blah, blah.  And how turnout sample #s don't matter, good grief.

Do us a favor and stay in AR the rest of your life.  You won't serve much of a purpose elsewhere.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I honestly have trouble figuring it out myself. But Romney is leading in many national polls. I guess they're hoping to pull out small wins in VA, WI, IA, CO, NV holding onto NC and FL and maybe making a last minute push for Ohio. The polls are very close in most of the swing states so a surge is not impossible.

National polls don't mean jack. We don't elect presidents by the popular vote. If Romney was gonna catch up it would have been before debate 2. Obama stopped the bleeding and is getting a mini bump right now.

No, but they can help momentum.  If Romney takes off in national polls, it could influence turnout in key states.  I think it'll be Obama, but it's certainly not over yet.

[All Along The Watchtower]

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Getting more than 269 electoral votes.

[Inmate Trump]

About a month or two ago, Romney's path to victory was much less deemed doable, but that's not the case today.  With the first debate, Romney increased his chances of winning significantly, bringing a once seen "in the bag" election for Obama to a 50/50 toss-up.  Obama won the 2nd and 3rd debates, but neither win gave him a bump in the polls whatsoever.

At this point, it all comes down to turn out and who gets out the vote.  Romney leads in FL, NC and now even in VA (which I had previously written off completely for him).  OH is a toss up with a slight edge to the president, but only a very slight one--in other words, it could go either way.  The same can be said for IA, NH, NV, CO...actually, CO has been tilting ever so slowly towards Romney.

There is obviously a very real chance that Romney can win on election day--something that, I think, was not the case just one month ago.  Democrats, don't kid yourselves...to think it's so impossible that Romney can win is only blinding yourself from a very real possibility.  I'm not saying I like it, but this is a toss up election right now that can literally go either way.

[Mr.Phips]

Ohio is not out of reach for Romney and anyone who says so is deluding themselves.  Obama is below 50% there and leads Romney by an average of just two points there.  Was Wisconsin out of reach for Kerry in 2004 when Bush led there by the same amount Obama leads in Ohio now?

[NHI]

There are ways to get to 270 w/o Ohio, but it's harder. However, I think Romney will ultimately carry Ohio, probably by the closest margins ever.

[J. J.]

Without Ohio, this:

Romney 277

Romney 285

Romney could even lose one of the smaller states, IA or NH, and win. 

[Ljube]

3-2-1

Romney has Indiana, North Carolina and Florida in the bag. He is leading polls in Virginia.
Colorado is a tossup with a slight Romney lead. New Hampshire is Romney territory and very likely he's going to win it.
Iowa, we'll see the early voting results, it's a possibility.
Ohio is a tossup and if it goes Romney, he's won.
Wisconsin is tough to call due to Scott Walker and Paul Ryan wildcards.
Nevada appears to be safe for Obama, but a definitive call can be made next week.