PPP NC: Tied.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

PPP are pretty much the best North Carolina pollster there is, aren't they?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

Who needs facts?

I don't think you have any right to discuss what other people need....

It's really funny to see people like you ignore what's actually happening on the ground when your own obama fellow tells people to look at whats actually happening on the ground.

Oh, you mean like how Obama has a massive advantage in campaign offices & GOtV?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

Who needs facts?

I don't think you have any right to discuss what other people need....

It's really funny to see people like you ignore what's actually happening on the ground when your own obama fellow tells people to look at whats actually happening on the ground.

Oh, you mean like how Obama has a massive advantage in campaign offices & GOtV?

No, I mean exactly what JJ said just above. Can you read?

I was assuming (wrongly, apparently) that you had some fragile connection to reality. Now, the question is: can you read? ↓

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

No, the poll says he's up 15% in early voting.

He would have to be winning roughly all the D vote and 2/3 of the NP vote.  Outlier possibly, or a really bad weighting. 

Current NC Early Vote Party Reg   
Dem   50.7%
Rep   30.5%
None/Oth   18.8%

From that, it looks like he just needs to be winning about half of independents and 85% of Democrats, which is reasonable.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

All this proves is PPP is willing to fall on the sword this go around, which shouldn't be surprised since they are a KOS poll and will be picked up again in the future. 

This poll reinforces that their polls in the other swing state are garbage, NC is safe.  Keep dreaming.  This site may be the most delusional on the interwebs.......

PPP - NC, 10-26-08: Obama + 1
Result: Obama + 0

PPP - NC, 10-31-10: Burr + 12
Result: Burr + 12

PPP - NC, 10-26-08: Hagan + 3
Result: Hagan + 8

PPP - NC, 10-26-08: Perdue + 3
Result: Perdue + 3

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

That author doesn't even understand how Silver's model works......but whatever helps you sleep at night, J.J.

The actual early voting results do. 

Silver had a measure and thought, later, it was wrong.  Maybe he had it right the first time. 

Yeah JJ, use the National Review to make your point, that'd definitely help in an argument.

No, Silver's initial argument was that PPP had a lean to the Democrats.  Then he said that it was much lower.  I don't think it is as low as he thought it was. 

I think Nate Silver has a better grip on poll accuracy than a guy who thinks the Bradley Effect happened in 2008.