PPP NC: Tied.
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  PPP NC: Tied.
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Author Topic: PPP NC: Tied.  (Read 5092 times)
Yank2133
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« on: October 25, 2012, 01:14:34 PM »

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Our new North Carolina poll finds Barack Obama and Mitt Romney tied, with Obama leading 57/42 among early voters. Results coming up.

No full details yet.
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dirks
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2012, 01:15:19 PM »

This has to be something silly like D+8
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2012, 01:15:48 PM »

Obama won early voters 56/43 in 2008, FWIW.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2012, 01:20:14 PM »

It becoming perfectly clear that the Obama surge has commenced!
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dirks
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2012, 01:20:44 PM »

It becoming perfectly clear that the Obama surge has commenced!

not in the national polls he hasn't

in polls with massive D oversampling...sure.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2012, 01:21:49 PM »

It becoming perfectly clear that the Obama surge has commenced!

not in the national polls he hasn't

in polls with massive D oversampling...sure.

Do we need to explain Partisan ID again?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2012, 01:21:54 PM »

It becoming perfectly clear that the Obama surge has commenced!

not in the national polls he hasn't

in polls with massive D oversampling...sure.

National polls are meaningless.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2012, 01:22:47 PM »

NC voting has been 35% African American and other minorities. If we assume that translates into 32% of votes for Obama, that means Obama would be getting 37% of white voters so far and tying.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2012, 01:23:09 PM »

It becoming perfectly clear that the Obama surge has commenced!

not in the national polls he hasn't

in polls with massive D oversampling...sure.

Exactly!

National polls are meaningless.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2012, 01:23:51 PM »

This is why it was stupid to suggest Obama pulling out of FL.......NC is barley lean Romney and that should be his easiest pick up.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2012, 01:24:11 PM »

I'm already looking forward to the day when Suffolk starts polling FL, NC and VA again ... Tongue
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2012, 01:27:47 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2012, 01:33:37 PM by AWallTEP81 »

Obvious movement towards Obama if you look at the polls today.  Iowa sticks out as very close, but for Romney to be winning this thing, he needs NC solidly in his column.  He'll win it, but you have to think this is too close for comfort.

Edit: shockingly, a +6 from (R)asmussen in their last poll of NC. 
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2012, 01:33:27 PM »

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2012, 01:33:50 PM »

This has to be something silly like D+8

PARTY ID IS FLUID
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dspNY
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2012, 02:20:33 PM »

If people actually want to play the Party ID game, the registration numbers in NC are 44/32R/24I for a +12 Dem lean, the thing is in NC that up to 20% of Dems are dixiecrats that vote GOP for President
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Franzl
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2012, 02:26:45 PM »

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

J.J. tells lots of fairy tales. (Although NC probably is gone, but it's not a safe Romney state as some would imply)
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2012, 02:40:10 PM »

Concede NC, they said.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2012, 02:48:51 PM »

PPP are pretty much the best North Carolina pollster there is, aren't they?
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change08
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« Reply #18 on: October 25, 2012, 02:54:05 PM »


We're moving onto Pennsylvania, they said.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2012, 03:10:34 PM »

So it begins.

The only polls showing real movement are PPP polls. I wonder why.

Roll Eyes
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J. J.
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« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2012, 03:11:56 PM »

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2012, 03:19:28 PM »

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

No, the poll says he's up 15% in early voting.
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J. J.
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« Reply #22 on: October 25, 2012, 03:24:15 PM »

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

No, the poll says he's up 15% in early voting.

He would have to be winning roughly all the D vote and 2/3 of the NP vote.  Outlier possibly, or a really bad weighting. 
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krazen1211
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« Reply #23 on: October 25, 2012, 03:32:18 PM »

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.


Who needs facts?
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MagneticFree
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« Reply #24 on: October 25, 2012, 03:35:13 PM »

When we see actual Secretary of state early voting and absentee ballots reported, these partisan polls are meaningless from here on.
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