PPP NC: Tied.

[Lief 🗽]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

[Lief 🗽]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

No, the poll says he's up 15% in early voting.

[Lief 🗽]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

No, the poll says he's up 15% in early voting.

He would have to be winning roughly all the D vote and 2/3 of the NP vote.  Outlier possibly, or a really bad weighting. 

Current NC Early Vote Party Reg   
Dem   50.7%
Rep   30.5%
None/Oth   18.8%

From that, it looks like he just needs to be winning about half of independents and 85% of Democrats, which is reasonable.

[Lief 🗽]

Lief, it is very reasonable that Obama could be losing indies by 7-10% but winning 90% of the Dems this year since a higher % of the Dem vote this time around is black (fewer dixiecrats).

Yes, that's another possibility (and more probable than my hypothetical breakdown, now that I think about it). But either way, the idea that Obama is winning the early vote, so far, by 17% is pretty reasonable.