PPP NC: Tied.

[J. J.]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

[J. J.]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

No, the poll says he's up 15% in early voting.

He would have to be winning roughly all the D vote and 2/3 of the NP vote.  Outlier possibly, or a really bad weighting. 

[J. J.]

Actually, the house effect that Silver thought was gone from PPP is probably still there.  I was trying to get some information on the weighting, and found this:  http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan

PPP still probably has that lean, though I would not be surprised if it was below D+3. 

[J. J.]

That author doesn't even understand how Silver's model works......but whatever helps you sleep at night, J.J.

The actual early voting results do. 

Silver had a measure and thought, later, it was wrong.  Maybe he had it right the first time. 

[J. J.]

That author doesn't even understand how Silver's model works......but whatever helps you sleep at night, J.J.

The actual early voting results do. 

Silver had a measure and thought, later, it was wrong.  Maybe he had it right the first time. 

Yeah JJ, use the National Review to make your point, that'd definitely help in an argument.

No, Silver's initial argument was that PPP had a lean to the Democrats.  Then he said that it was much lower.  I don't think it is as low as he thought it was. 

[J. J.]

There was one tweet, and, if accurate, one buy on a single station.  http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-romney-north-carolina-poll-early-voting-election-2012-10

The superpac has pulled out. 

[J. J.]

Obama NC ad buy week ending....

10/22: $959k
10/29: $1,185k
http://nationaljournal.com/hotline/ad-spending-in-presidential-battleground-states-20120620

Yes clearly Obama is pulling out using the trick of spending more money.

As for his SuperPAC, they havent ever spent in NC

He's not spending a lot, and it was after some decreases. 

They also are not showing everything; Obama was on the radio here as of yesterday, and nothing is showing. 

[J. J.]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

Huh?

Democratic turnout at this point in the cycle:

2012- 502,855
2008- 447,956

How does that translate into D turnout running well behind 2008?

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/custom/2994568007/

This day in 2008:

D  533,384  55.92%
R  259,813  27.24%
U  160,069  16.78%

Yesterday:

D  502,855   50.7%
R  302,684   30.52%
U  184,505   18.6%

D's are down 33,000 while R's are up 43,000.  That is a net loss of 77,000 votes, and this is a period where D's are voting heavier.  

[J. J.]

I believe there is a glitch in the Civitas system. Once midnight rolled around their 4 years ago page changed but not their current one. You have to wait until after yesterdays totals are added in the morning to get a true comparison.

Well, I was looking at the dates and using Carolina Transparency.