2012 Congressional Intrade rankings

[LiberalJunkie]

2012 Senatorial Map

(Yellow means not enough data and shade is my Chance of winning prediction)

2012 Senate seats Won

Democrat 20
Republican 9
Independant 2

2012 Senate seats Total

Democrat 51 (-1)
Republican 47 (+/-0)
Independant 2 (+1)

Senate Control

Democrats 64.1%
Republicans 22.5%
Neither 12.6%

House Control

Republicans 95.9%
Democrats 4.2%

[LiberalJunkie]

2012 Senatorial Map

(New York, Tennessee, Mississippi, Vermont, Utah does not have enough data and shows my chance of winning prediction)

2012 Senate seats Won

Democrat 20
Republican 9
Independent 2

2012 Senate seats Total

Democrat 51 (-1)
Republican 47 (+/-0)
Independent 2 (+1)

Senate Control

Democrats 72.5% (+8.4%)
Republicans 17.2% (-5.2%)
Neither 10.6% (-2.0%)

House Control

Republicans 95.9% (-0.4%)
Democrats 4.9% (+0.7%)

[BM]

I suggest buying shares for Senator Shelley Berkley, who is only at 25% right now for some reason.

[Miles]

I suggest buying shares for Senator Shelley Berkley, who is only at 25% right now for some reason.

I think that could maybe be because she hasn't actually led in a poll since September.

[BM]

She's obviously underpolling like most Democrats in Nevada, Romney isn't even trying in the state so Obama's coattails will help, and the last minute deciders will break for Senator Berkley, as will all the people who are currently scared to admit they're voting for a corrupt and evil villainess. Deep down they'll find her preferable to the Republican. This will come to be known as the Berkley Effect. Reid's GOTV and ballot box stuffing will help as well.

[BM]

Todd Akin is only at 24% as well and he could very well win.

[LiberalJunkie]

2012 Senatorial Map

(New York, Tennessee, Mississippi, Vermont, Utah does not have enough data and shows my chance of winning prediction)

2012 Senate seats Won

Democrat 20
Republican 9
Independent 2

2012 Senate seats Total

Democrat 51 (-1)
Republican 47 (+/-0)
Independent 2 (+1)

Senate Control

Democrats 67.3% (-5.2%)
Republicans 22.5%  (+3.3%)
Neither 12.7% (+2.1%)

House Control

Republicans 95.0% (-0.9%)
Democrats 4.9% (-0.5%)

[LiberalJunkie]

2012 Senatorial Map

(New York, Tennessee, Mississippi, Vermont, Utah does not have enough data and shows my chance of winning prediction)

2012 Senate seats Won

Democrat 20
Republican 9
Independent 2

2012 Senate seats Total

Democrat 51 (-1)
Republican 47 (+/-0)
Independent 2 (+1)

Senate Control

Democrats 68.4% (+1.1%)
Republicans 18.9%  (-3.6%)
Neither 12.6% (-0.1%)

House Control

Republicans 95.5% (+0.5%)
Democrats 5.0% (+0.1%)

[LiberalJunkie]

2012 Senatorial Map

(New York, Tennessee, Mississippi, Vermont, Utah does not have enough data and shows my chance of winning prediction)

2012 Senate seats Won

Democrat 19
Republican 10
Independent 2

2012 Senate seats Total

Democrat 50 (-2)
Republican 48 (+1)
Independent 2 (+1)

Senate Control

Democrats 68.4% 73.7% (5.3%)
Republicans 19.8%  (+0.9%)
Neither 10.5% (-2.1%)

House Control

Republicans 96.0% (+0.5%)
Democrats 4.5% (-0.5%)

[tmthforu94]

Wisconsin and Missouri still have a fair shot at going Republican - that puts Republicans at 50, so Romney would have a majority should he win. Not sure it matters quite as much if Obama wins, as he'd still have to deal with the House, which shouldn't change much.

[LiberalJunkie]

2012 Senatorial Map

(New York, Tennessee, Mississippi, Vermont, Utah does not have enough data and shows my chance of winning prediction)

2012 Senate seats Won

Democrat 20
Republican 9
Independent 2

2012 Senate seats Total

Democrat 51 (-1)
Republican 47 (+/-0)
Independent 2 (+1)

Senate Control

Democrats 74.5% (+0.8%)
Republicans 16.3%  (-3.5%)
Neither 11.0% (+0.5%)

House Control

Republicans 94.6% (-1.4%)
Democrats 4.5% (+/-0%)

Menendez at 50% as scandal emerges.

[Vosem]

Wisconsin and Missouri still have a fair shot at going Republican - that puts Republicans at 50, so Romney would have a majority should he win. Not sure it matters quite as much if Obama wins, as he'd still have to deal with the House, which shouldn't change much.

Honestly, after the seats depicted on LJ's map, I would say the next likeliest seats to go Republican are Indiana, then Virginia -- some outfits have begun to show Allen ahead of Romney. Then Wisconsin. Missouri is buried somewhere very deep in there -- McCaskill's won this. OH & PA are both better targets, I think, then Missouri is somewhere about tied with Massachusetts. Of course, if the Menendez scandal gains traction, NJ begins climbing fast (and, as LJ noted, Intrade is quickly dumping Menendez; they seem to think it will).

[LiberalJunkie]

2012 Senatorial Map

(New York, Tennessee, Mississippi, Utah does not have enough data and shows my chance of winning prediction)

2012 Senate seats Won

Democrat 20
Republican 9
Independent 2

2012 Senate seats Total

Democrat 51 (-1)
Republican 47 (+/-0)
Independent 2 (+1)

Senate Control

Democrats 72.7% (-1.8%)
Republicans 17.2%  (+0.9%)
Neither 11.0% (-1.1%)

House Control

Republicans 95.5% (+0.9%)
Democrats 4.5% (+0.1%)

[LiberalJunkie]

2012 Senatorial Map

(New York, Tennessee, Mississippi, Utah does not have enough data and shows my chance of winning prediction)

2012 Senate seats Won

Democrat 20
Republican 9
Independent 2

2012 Senate seats Total

Democrat 51 (-1)
Republican 47 (+/-0)
Independent 2 (+1)

Senate Control

Democrats 71.3% (-1.4%)
Republicans 18.8%  (+1.6%)
Neither 7.6% (-3.4%)

House Control

Republicans 94.6% (-0.9%)
Democrats 5.5% (+1.0%)

[LiberalJunkie]

Indiana chance of going Democratic is now over 90%.

2012 Senatorial Map

(New York, Tennessee, Mississippi, Utah does not have enough data and shows my chance of winning prediction)

2012 Senate seats Won

Democrat 20
Republican 9
Independent 2

2012 Senate seats Total

Democrat 51 (-1)
Republican 47 (+/-0)
Independent 2 (+1)

Senate Control

Democrats 74.0% (+2.7%)
Republicans 18.4%  (-0.4%)
Neither 8.0% (+0.4%)

House Control

Republicans 95.2% (+0.6%)
Democrats 4.9% (-0.6%)

[LiberalJunkie]

2012 Senatorial Map

(New York, Tennessee, Mississippi, Utah does not have enough data and shows my chance of winning prediction)

2012 Senate seats Won

Democrat 20
Republican 9
Independent 2

2012 Senate seats Total

Democrat 51 (-1)
Republican 47 (+/-0)
Independent 2 (+1)

Senate Control

Democrats 71.7% (-2.3%)
Republicans 18.6%  (+0.2%)
Neither 6.8% (-1.2%)

House Control

Republicans 95.5% (+0.3%)
Democrats 5.0% (+0.1%)

[LiberalJunkie]

2012 Senatorial Map

(New York, Tennessee, Mississippi, Utah does not have enough data and shows my chance of winning prediction)

2012 Senate seats Won

Democrat 20
Republican 9
Independent 2

2012 Senate seats Total

Democrat 51 (-1)
Republican 47 (+/-0)
Independent 2 (+1)

Senate Control

Democrats 72.2% (+0.5%)
Republicans 18.0%  (-0.6%)
Neither 8.0% (+1.2%)

House Control

Republicans 95.5% (+/-0%)
Democrats 5.0% (+/-0%)