Romney last led an Ohio poll 14 polls ago

[Iosif]

14 days ago.

He can't win without Ohio.

[BM]

Yup Romney is set to lose the election in Ohio just like his Democratic twin John Kerry.

[J. J.]

And he's tied today in some of the polling. 

[BM]

Obama's poll numbers range from ties to substantial leads.

Romney's range from substantial loss to ties.

And who has the advantage here? Spare yourself some heartache later. This election is locked up and there's nothing you can do about it. 4 more years of your hated scary black man as president!

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think Obama has the electoral college locked up - I really do as Mittens doesn't seem to be able to pill consistent leads in any of them. The real question is what happens if Romney wins the popular vote by 2-3%? Will the movement to abolish the EC grow? Almost all of the national polls have Romney leading by 2-5 points.

[Iosif]

I think Obama has the electoral college locked up - I really do as Mittens doesn't seem to be able to pill consistent leads in any of them. The real question is what happens if Romney wins the popular vote by 2-3%? Will the movement to abolish the EC grow? Almost all of the national polls have Romney leading by 2-5 points.

If that were true the RCP average would be higher than Romney +0.6%.

[Likely Voter]

Romney has had some 1 point lead or tied polls in the last month, but they were from  Gravis, Rasmussen, ARG, Suffolk and We Ask America. All other polls (notably the more expensive major media live phone+mobile polls) have shown Obama with a small but steady lead. He is down from his September highs, but the bleeding seems to have stopped for now.

That being said, OH is still Romney's best path through the Obama firewall. But if early voting continues to trend heavily for Obama Romney may need to focus more on WI or even possibly PA, a state that has no early voting and might be moved if Romney made a massive buy there with visits in the last week but that would be a huge gamble.

[BM]

A Republican is NOT winning Wisconsin and certainly not Pennsylvania. If those are his only options (Ohio is clearly off the table), then he should just concede the race. Americans are tired of  this election anyway and Romney's popularity would only increase if he spared us the last two weeks of agony and bitterness.

[Likely Voter]

WI or PA can become better bets for Romney over OH if Romney gets a late national surge, but that surge is not enough to eclipse the heavily Obama friendly early voting that he already banked. It could be that Romney is up 2 points nationally and has NC, FL, VA, CO, IA and NH in hand on election day but Latino's have swing NV to Obama and his early vote in OH still gives him en edge. In that case WI (which just started early voting) or PA (which has no early voting) could be better targets than trying to have a massive election day win in OH.

[Speed of Sound]

I think Obama has the electoral college locked up - I really do as Mittens doesn't seem to be able to pill consistent leads in any of them. The real question is what happens if Romney wins the popular vote by 2-3%? Will the movement to abolish the EC grow? Almost all of the national polls have Romney leading by 2-5 points.

Errrrr......?

EDIT: Fixed error on Reuters

Wednesday Summary

PPP
Obama  48 (+1)
Romney 48 (-1)

Rasmussen
Obama  46
Romney 50

RAND (Rounded)
Obama  49 (+1)
Romney 45 (-1)

Gallup
Obama  47 (+1)
Romney 50 (-1)

Reuters
Obama  46 (-1)
Romney 47 (+1)

TIPP (Rounded)
Obama  47
Romney 44 (-1)

UPI
Obama  49 (+1)
Romney 47 (-1)

ABC
Obama  48
Romney 49


Lead Summary
Rand:      Obama +4  (O+2)
UPI:       Obama +2  (O+2)
TIPP:      Obama +3  (O+1)
PPP:       TIE       (O+2)
Reuters:   Romney +1  (R+2)
ABC:       Romney +1 (-)
Gallup:    Romney +3 (O+2)
Rasmussen: Romney +4 (-)
  
Average: Tied (O+0.9)

[Iosif]

Romney last led a Wisconsin poll in August and a Nevada poll in April.

I don't see any credible electoral path to 270 without Ohio.

[BM]

I really hope Romney loses the election but wins the PV, preferably by huge margins. Losing with 55% of the vote or something like that.

Mainly because the EC really needs to be done away with, but I would LOVE to see the Republicans whine about it after gleefully stealing an election a mere 12 years ago. LOL

[J. J.]

I would take OH off the table just yet.  Interpoll numbers are trending toward Romney, though a tie.  I expect movement.  

This is the "frontal assault" of the war, as it were.  The Obama line has been forced back, but has not broken.  

[BM]

Trends, momentum, incumbent under 50%, blahblahblah = Dick Morris gobbledygook

If Romney had a chance in Ohio he would have led a few respectable polls by now. The election isn't a few months away anymore. Most minds are made up.

[Orion0]

Trends, momentum, incumbent under 50%, blahblahblah = Dick Morris gobbledygook

If Romney had a chance in Ohio he would have led a few respectable polls by now. The election isn't a few months away anymore. Most minds are made up.

The only thing disrespectful is continually looking at Ohio as beating their democratic turnout in 2008, which is laughable to say the least. Once you realize that a good majority of the polls from Ohio are beyond skewed for the president, maybe you could stop looking like such a fool with comments like "Ohio is clearly off the table"

[Yank2133]

Trends, momentum, incumbent under 50%, blahblahblah = Dick Morris gobbledygook

If Romney had a chance in Ohio he would have led a few respectable polls by now. The election isn't a few months away anymore. Most minds are made up.

The only thing disrespectful is continually looking at Ohio as beating their democratic turnout in 2008, which is laughable to say the least. Once you realize that a good majority of the polls from Ohio are beyond skewed for the president, maybe you could stop looking like such a fool with comments like "Ohio is clearly off the table"

Christ, do people truly not that understand party ID is fluid....or are they just willfully ignorant?

[Orion0]

Trends, momentum, incumbent under 50%, blahblahblah = Dick Morris gobbledygook

If Romney had a chance in Ohio he would have led a few respectable polls by now. The election isn't a few months away anymore. Most minds are made up.

The only thing disrespectful is continually looking at Ohio as beating their democratic turnout in 2008, which is laughable to say the least. Once you realize that a good majority of the polls from Ohio are beyond skewed for the president, maybe you could stop looking like such a fool with comments like "Ohio is clearly off the table"

Christ, do people truly not that understand party ID is fluid....or are they just willfully ignorant?

Say what you will, but to assume that the electorate on election day is not going to be significantly more republican than 2008 isdeludingthemselves, regardless of what the polls report.

[DrScholl]

Not even right-leaning polls have shown better than a tie for Romney, so obviously he's got a problem there that can't be explained away with the in correct Party ID argument. Obama likely wins Ohio by 4 points.

[Yank2133]

Not even right-leaning polls have shown better than a tie for Romney, so obviously he's got a problem there that can't be explained away with the in correct Party ID argument. Obama likely wins Ohio by 4 points.

Pretty much this.

Romney's problem is the bailout and the growing economy in Ohio......not "skewed" polls.

[J. J.]

The polls, however, are tightening.  Even PPP, on 10/20, showed it down to a 1 point race (a drop of 4 for Obama).

And I checked, Romney was up in the summer in some polls.

[Yank2133]

The polls, however, are tightening.  Even PPP, on 10/20, showed it down to a 1 point race (a drop of 4 for Obama).

And I checked, Romney was up in the summer in some polls.

And in other polls have Obama up 5, 4, 3 points.

If Romney couldn't gain ground to pass Obama after the first debate......then chances are he won't in the next two weeks.

[Speed of Sound]

The polls, however, are tightening.  Even PPP, on 10/20, showed it down to a 1 point race (a drop of 4 for Obama).

And I checked, Romney was up in the summer in some polls.

And in other polls have Obama up 5, 4, 3 points.

If Romney couldn't gain ground to pass Obama after the first debate......then chances are he won't in the next two weeks.

Yeah, I mean, this is the big thing. Time is nearly up, and there's nowhere more for Romney to make a big push. Post-the first debate was the peak, and now the momentum is nothing like that at all, and he's still down with a huge chunk of early voting done, too. There's nowhere to make up ground.

[J. J.]

The polls, however, are tightening.  Even PPP, on 10/20, showed it down to a 1 point race (a drop of 4 for Obama).

And I checked, Romney was up in the summer in some polls.

And in other polls have Obama up 5, 4, 3 points.

If Romney couldn't gain ground to pass Obama after the first debate......then chances are he won't in the next two weeks.

I'm looking intra-poll.  It has closed in OH.  That early voting, more so nationally, is just not that good.  OH has problems using early voting with party registration, but that is still big difference from 2008. 

I would feel better if Romney were leading in OH and WI, but I just think it is not going to stay like this for another 12 days. 

[Lief 🗽]

Even more damning is the fact that Romney has, in the year 2012, only led in two live interview polls of Ohio. One was ARG, the other was in February.