Current Senate outlook?

[Franzl]

Basis (seats not up for election this year)

DEM: 30
GOP: 37

The seats up for election: (* = pick up)

Safe DEM (13): CA, MN, NY, VT, RI, MD, DE, HI, MI, NJ, NM, WA, WV   ---> 43
Safe GOP (6): UT, WY, TX, TN, MS, NE*                                              ---> 43

Lean DEM (3): FL, OH, PA  ---> 46
Lean GOP (3): NV, ND*, IN  ---> 46

Tilt DEM (4): CT, MA*, MO, VA   ---> 50
Tilt GOP (1): AZ                    ---> 47

Toss-up (2): MT, WI


So my prediction:

DEM 50, GOP 47
2 seats up in the air
1 King
---> 100 seats

[Gass3268]

Nate Silver has WI has Likely Dem

[opebo]

Nate Silver has WI has Likely Dem

Yeah, Franzl  your prediction is overly GOP leaning by one seat (WI) but other than that its pretty good.

Should end up 51-48+King.

[Keystone Phil]

The only toss ups right now are Montana and Wisconsin. As of now, I think the Dems pick up Massachusetts and Maine (King is obviously going to caucus with the Dems so I am counting this as a pick up) and the GOP snags Nebraska and North Dakota.

If I had to pick the winners in MT and WI, I'd say the GOP just barely gets both, putting the composition at 51 D - 49 R.

[opebo]

The only toss ups right now are Montana and Wisconsin. As of now, I think the Dems pick up Massachusetts and Maine (King is obviously going to caucus with the Dems so I am counting this as a pick up) and the GOP snags Nebraska and North Dakota.

If I had to pick the winners in MT and WI, I'd say the GOP just barely gets both, putting the composition at 51 D - 49 R.

Really?  Isn't Baldwin ahead in nearly all the polls in Wisconsin?

[Keystone Phil]

The only toss ups right now are Montana and Wisconsin. As of now, I think the Dems pick up Massachusetts and Maine (King is obviously going to caucus with the Dems so I am counting this as a pick up) and the GOP snags Nebraska and North Dakota.

If I had to pick the winners in MT and WI, I'd say the GOP just barely gets both, putting the composition at 51 D - 49 R.

Really?  Isn't Baldwin ahead in nearly all the polls in Wisconsin?

Barely. An internal was just released showing her up five so it has to be even. I think undecideds will break for Thompson. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

The only toss ups right now are Montana and Wisconsin. As of now, I think the Dems pick up Massachusetts and Maine (King is obviously going to caucus with the Dems so I am counting this as a pick up) and the GOP snags Nebraska and North Dakota.

If I had to pick the winners in MT and WI, I'd say the GOP just barely gets both, putting the composition at 51 D - 49 R.

Really?  Isn't Baldwin ahead in nearly all the polls in Wisconsin?

Barely. An internal was just released showing her up five so it has to be even. I think undecideds will break for Thompson.  

The only problem is of course that Baldwin routinely breaks 50%, so even if Tommy gets all the undecideds... 

[Gass3268]

Yeah, Nate Silver has WI at 85% Dem. I don't think there is much to worry about.

[Keystone Phil]

The only toss ups right now are Montana and Wisconsin. As of now, I think the Dems pick up Massachusetts and Maine (King is obviously going to caucus with the Dems so I am counting this as a pick up) and the GOP snags Nebraska and North Dakota.

If I had to pick the winners in MT and WI, I'd say the GOP just barely gets both, putting the composition at 51 D - 49 R.

Really?  Isn't Baldwin ahead in nearly all the polls in Wisconsin?

Barely. An internal was just released showing her up five so it has to be even. I think undecideds will break for Thompson.  

The only problem is of course that Baldwin routinely breaks 50%, so even if Tommy gets all the undecideds...  

She broke 50% in an early October poll and late September poll. Every other recent poll had her below 50%.

[Mr.Phips]

The only toss ups right now are Montana and Wisconsin. As of now, I think the Dems pick up Massachusetts and Maine (King is obviously going to caucus with the Dems so I am counting this as a pick up) and the GOP snags Nebraska and North Dakota.

If I had to pick the winners in MT and WI, I'd say the GOP just barely gets both, putting the composition at 51 D - 49 R.

Really?  Isn't Baldwin ahead in nearly all the polls in Wisconsin?

Barely. An internal was just released showing her up five so it has to be even. I think undecideds will break for Thompson. 

For Thompson to win, he's going to need some serious wind at his back and that means Romney winning Wisconsin.  The way he has been acting and the things he has been caught saying basically destroyed his chances of getting a significant amount of Obama voters.