OH: Fox News - Obama +3

[J. J.]

Americans will need more divine help only if Obama is reelected.  

Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr. Jerry Falwell.

Slightly better than this guy.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I really hope this Party ID fascination fades away after the election, but I'm not holding my breath.

It won't, because these people are incredibly ignorant of how polls work.  Both sides on this forum are guilty of it. 

Lol, all polls are trying to determine is, who is going to turnout more.  Everyone is trying to predict it, no matter what you think.  If you predict who is going to turn out the most, you can tell who's likely to win.  It's really very simple, I know you want it to be more complicated, so complicated it can't be understood but you don't need a secret decoder ring from a captain crunch box to read the polls.

I get it they don't weight their polls by ID,  but the turnout result they come up with is either believable or not.  We do not believe the turnout will be like 08.  I think it's very safe to say turnout will be somewhere between 04 and 08.  When you read a poll and it suggests that turnout will be X, then it is very appropriate to reweight it to what you think the likely turnout is.  Ultimately you're trying to find out who has enthusiasm and an idea of where independents are breaking to.   It also needs to be realistic to current voter registration numbers. 

when you say you don't believe in party ID, you most certainly do when it favors your candidate and the reverse when it doesn't.  You believe in the 08 or better turnout model and that isn't happening, conveniently your liberal polls are feeding your delusion.  And there is nothing to suggest you have enthusiasm on your side. 

are you talking?

[BigSkyBob]

If this poll is to be believed, compared to the CNN exit polls from 2008, Obama has gone from a 52-44 advantage to a 28-52 deficit among independents while decreasing his deficit among Republicans from 8-92 to 7-85. If the hapless John McCain could acheive a higher margin among Republicans than Obama could among Democrats, there is every reason to believe that Romney will do the same. 

[Cliffy]

If this poll is to be believed, compared to the CNN exit polls from 2008, Obama has gone from a 52-44 advantage to a 28-52 deficit among independents while decreasing his deficit among Republicans from 8-92 to 7-85. If the hapless John McCain could acheive a higher margin among Republicans than Obama could among Democrats, there is every reason to believe that Romney will do the same. 

Yeah unfortunately Fox polls aren't usually very accurate, you would think they'd try a little harder or hire better pollsters....

[BigSkyBob]

If this poll is to be believed, compared to the CNN exit polls from 2008, Obama has gone from a 52-44 advantage to a 28-52 deficit among independents while decreasing his deficit among Republicans from 8-92 to 7-85. If the hapless John McCain could achieve a higher margin among Republicans than Obama could among Democrats, there is every reason to believe that Romney will do the same. 

Yeah unfortunately Fox polls aren't usually very accurate, you would think they'd try a little harder or hire better pollsters....

The number that matters is Romney's lead among independents. If that number holds up, Romney wins barring a dramatic drops in Republican turnout.

[Brittain33]

If this poll is to be believed, compared to the CNN exit polls from 2008, Obama has gone from a 52-44 advantage to a 28-52 deficit among independents while decreasing his deficit among Republicans from 8-92 to 7-85. If the hapless John McCain could achieve a higher margin among Republicans than Obama could among Democrats, there is every reason to believe that Romney will do the same. 

Yeah unfortunately Fox polls aren't usually very accurate, you would think they'd try a little harder or hire better pollsters....

The number that matters is Romney's lead among independents. If that number holds up, Romney wins barring a dramatic drops in Republican turnout.

In the last few years, many conservative Republican voters have reidentified as independents because of the Tea Party.