OH: Fox News - Obama +3

[Marston]

Obama 46%
Romney 43%

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/19/fox-news-poll-support-for-obama-dips-in-ohio/

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Is it me, or is that an unusually high number of undecideds for a poll at this point?

Also, great news.

[Yank2133]

Nice.

[5280]

Obama lost 3 pts from September, so he's clearly losing ground when you factor in the poll.

[Marston]

Obama lost 3 pts from September, so he's clearly losing ground when you factor in the poll.

It's pretty clear that Obama is down across the board from his high water mark in September. The immediate question to consider now is whether or not he's stabilized his numbers. National polling seems - to me at least - to indicate that Obama's stopped the bleeding.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama lost 3 pts from September, so he's clearly losing ground when you factor in the poll.

You mean... before the catastrophic debate when Obama dropped everywhere?

OMG... game over!

[Likely Voter]

Actually the last FOX poll was Obama +7, but that was the week of the 47% comment. 

[J. J.]

Actually the last FOX poll was Obama +7, but that was the week of the 47% comment. 

When was it taken?  Totally after or partially after?

[Marston]

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[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama's best friend was Kasich in this election, he clearly has cost Romney the state. And with Brown's weak opponent should give the state to Obama as well.

[Devils30]

The internals of this really dont point to a Romney comeback. Obama's favorables are solid while Romney's are split at best. I think FOX didnt want to include leaners because this would make it look worse for Mitt.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Time to bust out Rev. Wright and Obamaphone Lady... eh, Mitt?

[Reds4]

Party ID is very interesting here.. D +8 (same as 2008)... but also only 20% IND (it was 30% in 2008). This poll isn't that bad for Romney.

[Cliffy]

Party ID is very interesting here.. D +8 (same as 2008)... but also only 20% IND (it was 30% in 2008). This poll isn't that bad for Romney.

very good.

[timothyinMD]

Party sample is too D.

Their Florida poll was D +1, very believable.

I can see Ohio turnout at D +2 or 3, but not 8.

[5280]

I think Romney can pull it off, but it's coming down to the wire.

[Ty440]

Time to bust out Rev. Wright and Obamaphone Lady... eh, Mitt?

GOD DA*N AMERICA! (If they vote for Romney)

[Marston]

I really hope this Party ID fascination fades away after the election, but I'm not holding my breath.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I really hope this Party ID fascination fades away after the election, but I'm not holding my breath.

It won't, because these people are incredibly ignorant of how polls work.  Both sides on this forum are guilty of it. 

[Reds4]

I figured as soon as I said something about Party ID I would be blasted by some Dems.. to be fair, I'm objective about it and will point out what appears wrong on both sides.. if you think Ohio will be Dems +8 this year that is fine, but I highly doubt it.

[J. J.]

Time to bust out Rev. Wright and Obamaphone Lady... eh, Mitt?

GOD DA*N AMERICA! (If they vote for Romney)

Americans will need more divine help only if Obama is reelected. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Time to bust out Rev. Wright and Obamaphone Lady... eh, Mitt?

GOD DA*N AMERICA! (If they vote for Romney)

Americans will need more divine help only if Obama is reelected.  

Yea seriously.  What an unbridled disaster the last four years of all our lives have been.  If only the all mighty would stop Obama.  

Do you guys even listen to yourselves?  I hope thats hyperbole.

[Cryptic]

Americans will need more divine help only if Obama is reelected. 

Just like it needed divine help after Bush, Clinton, and every other President that faced vocal opposition who was reelected.     

[DrScholl]

Americans will need more divine help only if Obama is reelected. 

Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr. Jerry Falwell.

[Cliffy]

I really hope this Party ID fascination fades away after the election, but I'm not holding my breath.

It won't, because these people are incredibly ignorant of how polls work.  Both sides on this forum are guilty of it. 

Lol, all polls are trying to determine is, who is going to turnout more.  Everyone is trying to predict it, no matter what you think.  If you predict who is going to turn out the most, you can tell who's likely to win.  It's really very simple, I know you want it to be more complicated, so complicated it can't be understood but you don't need a secret decoder ring from a captain crunch box to read the polls.

I get it they don't weight their polls by ID,  but the turnout result they come up with is either believable or not.  We do not believe the turnout will be like 08.  I think it's very safe to say turnout will be somewhere between 04 and 08.  When you read a poll and it suggests that turnout will be X, then it is very appropriate to reweight it to what you think the likely turnout is.  Ultimately you're trying to find out who has enthusiasm and an idea of where independents are breaking to.   It also needs to be realistic to current voter registration numbers. 

when you say you don't believe in party ID, you most certainly do when it favors your candidate and the reverse when it doesn't.  You believe in the 08 or better turnout model and that isn't happening, conveniently your liberal polls are feeding your delusion.  And there is nothing to suggest you have enthusiasm on your side.