Partisan D poll finds Obama up 8 in Neveda.

[pa2011]

Poll by the Mellman Group -- Obama 51. Romney 43.

 Though this is a Democratic internal poll, I do think Nevada is sliding into a lean Obama state. Irrespective of the polls, hard to see how Romney overcomes a 125,000 vote Democratic registration edge in Clark County, where something like 3/4 of votes come from.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/110525380/Nevada-Poll-Memo-10-18

[Yank2133]

They were the only ones to get the 2010 Senate race numbers correct.

[Wiz in Wis]

Nevada polls consistently under-count democratic votes, for a couple of reasons. This poll might be trying to adjust for that, it might be biased, it might be really wrong, it might have gotten lucky and gotten it right. But Democrats tend to be better off in Nevada for a couple of reasons:

1) Spanish-speaking voters (not so much that pollsters don't conduct polls in spanish, but that spanish speakers are probably less likely than english speakers to take polls)
2) Cell-phone only homes based
3) Recent movers, compounding the cell phone - area code dilemma
4) small baseline population compounded with high growth (related to points 2 and 3)

[Cliffy]

I do think Nevada will be really tough for Romney, all depends on GOTV there.