MN-SurveyUSA: Minnesota still a lock for Obama

[Tender Branson]

50% Obama
40% Romney
  4% Others
  6% Undecided

http://www.clipsyndicate.com/video/playlist/1805/3800798?title=broadcast_local_2

[Eraserhead]

I actually moved this into the "lean" category based mostly on the national polls. Gonna move it back where it belongs now.

[Devils30]

If Minnesota is double digits, Iowa is probably going blue

[Lief 🗽]

Weird that Romney's debate bounce hasn't shown up in Minnesota at all.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Weird that Romney's debate bounce hasn't shown up in Minnesota at all.

Is Romney even trying at all in MN.  Back in 2008 BRTD made a pretty good argument that ad buys in the Fargo market kept Obama's MOV pretty low compared to what we thought it would be.  If there's no advertising going on at all, that might answer your question. 

[opebo]

Weird that Romney's debate bounce hasn't shown up in Minnesota at all.

Debate bounce was entirely within white racist swing voters.  Minnesota is, while very white, not particularly 'swingy' (highly partisan), and also not particularly racist.  A poor candidate for Romney's racist strategy.

[Eraserhead]

Weird that Romney's debate bounce hasn't shown up in Minnesota at all.

Debate bounce was entirely within white racist swing voters.  Minnesota is, while very white, not particularly 'swingy' (highly partisan), and also not particularly racist.  A poor candidate for Romney's racist strategy.

Excellent analysis, opebo.

[Tender Branson]

Hint to "pa2011": This poll is already posted ...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Weird that Romney's debate bounce hasn't shown up in Minnesota at all.

Is Romney even trying at all in MN.  Back in 2008 BRTD made a pretty good argument that ad buys in the Fargo market kept Obama's MOV pretty low compared to what we thought it would be.  If there's no advertising going on at all, that might answer your question. 

Other way around really, Obama was advertising in the Fargo market, McCain was outspending him in the main Twin Cities one. Not much from either candidate this time around.

[© tweed]

Dem winning streak moves to 10

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Dem winning streak moves to 10

Do you think I'll still live in Minnesota when the streak ends?

[King]

Dem winning streak moves to 10

Do you think I'll still live in Minnesota when the streak ends?

Yes, but you might be six feet under.  Minnesota could be a potential swing state once all the social conservative olds die out and the GOP becomes Paultarded.

[Cliffy]

You guys are crazy if you think Minnesota is not in play, lt of money being spent in Minnesota for it to not be in play.

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/18/minnesota-is-one-of-this-weeks-top-10-in-ad-markets/

[cinyc]

You guys are crazy if you think Minnesota is not in play, lt of money being spent in Minnesota for it to not be in play.

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/18/minnesota-is-one-of-this-weeks-top-10-in-ad-markets/

Those ads are being played in the Rochester/MASON CITY/Austin DMA to reach the Mason City, Iowa part of the TV market.  It's just like how the candidates are advertising in the Boston, Massachusetts, Portland, Maine and Burlington, Vermont TV markets to reach New Hampshire.  Massachusetts isn't in play, nor are Vermont or Maine.  Neither is Minnesota at this point.  If the candidates start advertising in the Minneapolis TV market, then Minnesota will be in play.  Until then, advertising in a fringe Iowa TV market is meant to reach Iowa.

[King]

You guys are crazy if you think Minnesota is not in play, lt of money being spent in Minnesota for it to not be in play.

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/18/minnesota-is-one-of-this-weeks-top-10-in-ad-markets/

Jesus, Cliffy, even Dick Morris would tell you to tone it down.

[Cliffy]

You guys are crazy if you think Minnesota is not in play, lt of money being spent in Minnesota for it to not be in play.

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/18/minnesota-is-one-of-this-weeks-top-10-in-ad-markets/

Those ads are being played in the Rochester/MASON CITY/Austin DMA to reach the Mason City, Iowa part of the TV market.  It's just like how the candidates are advertising in the Boston, Massachusetts, Portland, Maine and Burlington, Vermont TV markets to reach New Hampshire.  Massachusetts isn't in play, nor are Vermont or Maine.  Neither is Minnesota at this point.  If the candidates start advertising in the Minneapolis TV market, then Minnesota will be in play.  Until then, advertising in a fringe Iowa TV market is meant to reach Iowa.

82% of the market is WI.  REad the whole article

[cinyc]

82% of the market is WI.  REad the whole article

So what?  It's 18% Iowa.  Obama has been advertising in fringe TV markets like that to reach small parts of states - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (to reach western NC) , Charleston, WV (southern OH), Parkersburg, WV (southern OH), Burlington, VT (northwestern NH), Portland, ME (northeastern NH), etc.   Romney largely hadn't advertised in fringe markets, but has begun doing so in the past few weeks.

And the whole article actually confirms what I'm saying:

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