Obama Approval Thread October 10/16/12-1/20/13

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

So his Job Approval is going up... but his LV is tanking...hmmmmmmm

[J. J.]

So his Job Approval is going up... but his LV is tanking...hmmmmmmm

Voters vs. all adults. 

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, Gallup includes minorities in their adult sample, but does not include minorities in their likely voter sample, explaining the disparity between the two numbers.

[J. J.]

Yeah, Gallup includes minorities in their adult sample, but does not include minorities in their likely voter sample, explaining the disparity between the two numbers.

Where did you get that? 

Obviously, the all adult sample includes non-voters. 

[Lief 🗽]

An article on HuffPost extrapolated that Gallup's likely voter electorate is 80% white, which is obviously ridiculous.

[J. J.]

An article on HuffPost extrapolated that Gallup's likely voter electorate is 80% white, which is obviously ridiculous.

That might be a bad extrapolation, or it might be how they are treating Hispanics.  It might also express a change in the demographics of turnout. The non-Hispanic white vote in the exit polls were 72% or 73% (if Alcon can be believed).   

[King]

If Obama got blown out with a 51% approval rating on election day, it will be the most ridiculous thing ever.

Here's to hoping Obama's Chicago Machine fights through the malaise and chicanery and gets supporters of both candidates to turn out and vote.

[J. J.]

If Obama got blown out with a 51% approval rating on election day, it will be the most ridiculous thing ever.

Here's to hoping Obama's Chicago Machine fights through the malaise and chicanery and gets supporters of both candidates to turn out and vote.

So far, the numbers indicate that there less enthusiasm on the D side.  I would be paying attention to early/absentee voting now vs. 2008 and the "strongly approve" numbers on Rasmussen. 

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

It's 2022 already?!

It's not 2020, either, J.J.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  50, +1

Disapprove:  49, -2

Strongly Approve:  26, -1

Strongly Disapprove:  42, -1

Head to Head:

Romney: 49, u

Obama:  47, u

Strange sample, but that strongly approved numbers are still declining.  It has been more than a 3 day sample.

[J. J.]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  49, u

Disapprove:  46, +1

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  51, +1

Obama:  45, u

Romney is no longer warping through interstellar space; he is in low earth orbit.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  50, u

Disapprove:  49, u

Strongly Approve:  26, u

Strongly Disapprove:  42, u

Head to Head:

Romney: 50, +1

Obama:  46, -1

Strongly approved does indicate a loss of enthusiasm.  It has fallen six points in one week.   

Note that all these numbers were pre-third debate.

[dspNY]

This is an incumbent election, so the approval numbers matter more than the horserace polls...remember Bush had an average approval rating of +2.7 (49.3-46.6) on Election Day and his margin of victory nationwide was 2.5%.

Obama's approval rating, according to RCP, is +3.0 (49.7-46.7), which is virtually 50% approval, and it's pretty hard to turn out an incumbent sitting on 50%

[Likely Voter]

Its kind of weird how since the RDNC Obama's approval has been very steady. It didn't change much when Romney got hit with 47% nor has it changed much since Obama lost the first debate. It has pretty much hovered between 49 and 50.

This is all about enthusiasm though. Is Bush's 49.5 better than Obama's 49.5? I would say yes. Republicans have been shown to be more likely to vote. So While it is a good thing to have Obama around 50, he is going to have to work even harder than Bush to get those people to actually vote

[J. J.]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  51, +2

Disapprove:  45, -1

? ? ?

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  51, u

Obama:  46, +1

[King]

Its kind of weird how since the RDNC Obama's approval has been very steady. It didn't change much when Romney got hit with 47% nor has it changed much since Obama lost the first debate. It has pretty much hovered between 49 and 50.

This is all about enthusiasm though. Is Bush's 49.5 better than Obama's 49.5? I would say yes. Republicans have been shown to be more likely to vote. So While it is a good thing to have Obama around 50, he is going to have to work even harder than Bush to get those people to actually vote

Obama needs to emphasize early voting as he did in 2008.  That's the key.

Get as much locked in supporters as possible to vote early and then get those same supporters to spend election day nudging leaners with promises of shorter voting lines.

[J. J.]

Its kind of weird how since the RDNC Obama's approval has been very steady. It didn't change much when Romney got hit with 47% nor has it changed much since Obama lost the first debate. It has pretty much hovered between 49 and 50.

This is all about enthusiasm though. Is Bush's 49.5 better than Obama's 49.5? I would say yes. Republicans have been shown to be more likely to vote. So While it is a good thing to have Obama around 50, he is going to have to work even harder than Bush to get those people to actually vote

Obama needs to emphasize early voting as he did in 2008.  That's the key.

Get as much locked in supporters as possible to vote early and then get those same supporters to spend election day nudging leaners with promises of shorter voting lines.

Well, where we have numbers, early voting is going R, at least compared to 2008. 

Personally, I'd rather try to switch monentum at this point.

[King]

Its kind of weird how since the RDNC Obama's approval has been very steady. It didn't change much when Romney got hit with 47% nor has it changed much since Obama lost the first debate. It has pretty much hovered between 49 and 50.

This is all about enthusiasm though. Is Bush's 49.5 better than Obama's 49.5? I would say yes. Republicans have been shown to be more likely to vote. So While it is a good thing to have Obama around 50, he is going to have to work even harder than Bush to get those people to actually vote

Obama needs to emphasize early voting as he did in 2008.  That's the key.

Get as much locked in supporters as possible to vote early and then get those same supporters to spend election day nudging leaners with promises of shorter voting lines.

Well, where we have numbers, early voting is going R, at least compared to 2008. 

Personally, I'd rather try to switch monentum at this point.

That's irrelevant.  What early voting has been thus far has nothing to do with Obama encouraging Democrats to vote early.

[J. J.]

Its kind of weird how since the RDNC Obama's approval has been very steady. It didn't change much when Romney got hit with 47% nor has it changed much since Obama lost the first debate. It has pretty much hovered between 49 and 50.

This is all about enthusiasm though. Is Bush's 49.5 better than Obama's 49.5? I would say yes. Republicans have been shown to be more likely to vote. So While it is a good thing to have Obama around 50, he is going to have to work even harder than Bush to get those people to actually vote

Obama needs to emphasize early voting as he did in 2008.  That's the key.

Get as much locked in supporters as possible to vote early and then get those same supporters to spend election day nudging leaners with promises of shorter voting lines.

Well, where we have numbers, early voting is going R, at least compared to 2008. 

Personally, I'd rather try to switch monentum at this point.

That's irrelevant.  What early voting has been thus far has nothing to do with Obama encouraging Democrats to vote early.

His much lauded GOTV drive must be broken then. 

[Cliffy]

Its kind of weird how since the RDNC Obama's approval has been very steady. It didn't change much when Romney got hit with 47% nor has it changed much since Obama lost the first debate. It has pretty much hovered between 49 and 50.

This is all about enthusiasm though. Is Bush's 49.5 better than Obama's 49.5? I would say yes. Republicans have been shown to be more likely to vote. So While it is a good thing to have Obama around 50, he is going to have to work even harder than Bush to get those people to actually vote

Obama needs to emphasize early voting as he did in 2008.  That's the key.

Get as much locked in supporters as possible to vote early and then get those same supporters to spend election day nudging leaners with promises of shorter voting lines.

that's why he's been doing at his campaign events which are almost all colleges, he's trying to get them to vote right then where applicable.

[Eraserhead]

Obama surge, kid:

Obama Approval: 53% (+2)

Obama Disapproval: 42% (-3)

Registered Voters:

Obama 48% (+1)

Romney 47% (-1)

Likely Voters:

Romney 50% (-1)

Obama 47% (+1)

Maybe Gallup has started polling some blacks

[Ty440]

Obama surge, kid:

Obama Approval: 53% (+2)

Obama Disapproval: 42% (-3)

Registered Voters:

Obama 48% (+1)

Romney 47% (-1)

Likely Voters:

Romney 50% (-1)

Obama 47% (+1)

Maybe Gallup has started polling some blacks

Or maybe it's Winfield's "silent majority" finally getting polled.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  49, u

Disapprove:  49, u

Strongly Approve:  29, +3

Strongly Disapprove:  41, -1

Head to Head:

Romney: 49, -1

Obama:  46, u

Strongly approved numbers came back up, but are still down 3.

[Mister Twister]

J.J., have you worked as a political consultant on a campaign before? Because you seem really knowledgeable about trends and numbers. Even if I don't like what I'm hearing, I keep finding myself amazed at your analysis.

[J. J.]

J.J., have you worked as a political consultant on a campaign before? Because you seem really knowledgeable about trends and numbers. Even if I don't like what I'm hearing, I keep finding myself amazed at your analysis.

A log time ago, in a galaxy far, far away.    Always on a local level/district level.

This is just looking at the numbers and not attempting to spin them.  NV is a prime example.  We don't know if a larger proportion of Democrats already voted or if it just more likely that D's vote on weekends.

Unfortunately, the one state where we really have good data is NC.  We can look at 2008 and make comparisons.