Obama Approval Thread October 10/16/12-1/20/13

[J. J.]

The earlier thread is here:  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=91754.0

I will start a new one on 1/21/13 (and attempt to make them yearly threads)

Please sticky this.

Today's Gallup is:

Approve:  49, +1

Disapprove:  45, -2

[Speed of Sound]

Thanks for getting a new one started, J.J. Can we get this sucker stickied up?

Also, Gallup and Rassy have the Approval rating so vastly different...I know they screen differently (I think they screen differently?) but even still it's rarely been this far apart.

[J. J.]

Please sticky this thread.

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  49, +1

Disapprove:  50, -1

Strongly Approve:  32, u

Strongly Disapprove:  43, u

[Lief 🗽]

Aw, J.J. thinks we won't need this thread anymore after January 20th. That's cute.

[Northeast Rep Snowball]

Aw, J.J. thinks we won't need this thread anymore after January 20th. That's cute.

it makes sense to do it this way, even if Obama wins.

[J. J.]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  49, u

Disapprove:  45, u

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  51, +1

Obama:  45, -2

[J. J.]

Aw, J.J. thinks we won't need this thread anymore after January 20th. That's cute.

No Lief, though that might be the case.

Dave found that the other thread was slowing down the site.  I though that we should keep an approval thread, but keep it to one or two years.  I hope that there is one for whomever is elected and whose term will begin on 1/20/13.

[LiberalJunkie]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  49, u

Disapprove:  45, u

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  51, +1

Obama:  45, -2

LOL gallup is F****D up right now

[J. J.]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  49, u

Disapprove:  45, u

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  51, +1

Obama:  45, -2

LOL gallup is F****D up right now

Silver noted a large GOP bias in Gallup.  However, PPP has a D bias and has Romney up by 4.

[afleitch]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  49, u

Disapprove:  45, u

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  51, +1

Obama:  45, -2

LOL gallup is F****D up right now

Silver noted a large GOP bias in Gallup.  However, PPP has a D bias and has Romney up by 4.

That's comparing a tracker poll to a field poll. The PPP poll would have given the two candidates a tie but for the lopsided Romney sample on Sunday.

If you compare Gallup to other conventional tracker polls it's a bit...askew...no?

[J. J.]

That's comparing a tracker poll to a field poll. The PPP poll would have given the two candidates a tie but for the lopsided Romney sample on Sunday.

If you compare Gallup to other conventional tracker polls it's a bit...askew...no?

There were two other contemporaneous polls that showed the same number.  I tend to think it is Romney, +2 to +6.

[afleitch]

That's comparing a tracker poll to a field poll. The PPP poll would have given the two candidates a tie but for the lopsided Romney sample on Sunday.

If you compare Gallup to other conventional tracker polls it's a bit...askew...no?

There were two other contemporaneous polls that showed the same number.  I tend to think it is Romney, +2 to +6.

So you think it's Romney '+2 to +6' based on Gallup puting him up 6, Rasmussen putting him up 1, IBD/TIPP putting him down by 2 and Ipsos/Reuters putting him down by 3? (With YouGov putting him down by 1 which is a firm I know you say you don't like and for gigles, RAND putting him down 6)

So technically based on the most recent polls you only believe Gallup (as Rasmussen only has Romney up by 1 as of yesterday) is that correct?

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  48, -1

Disapprove:  51, +1

Strongly Approve:  30, -2

Strongly Disapprove:  44, +1

Head to Head:

Romney: 49, u

Obama:  47, u

One third of the sample is post 2nd debate.

And thank you for stickying this thread! 

[J. J.]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  50, +1

Disapprove:  44, -1

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u


Note that only 1/7 of the sample is post debate; I really think they has to be a pro-Romney sample in there. 

[LiberalJunkie]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  50, +1

Disapprove:  44, -1

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u


Note that only 1/7 of the sample is post debate; I really think they has to be a pro-Romney sample in there. 

No way obama is having an approval of +6% but losing to romney by 7%!!

[J. J.]

No way obama is having an approval of +6% but losing to romney by 7%!!

Approval is based on all adults.  The head to head is likely voters.  That could account for some of the difference.  As I've said, I think there is a pro Romney bad sample in there.

[King]

It should be noted that the final Likely Voter sample for Gallup in 2008 had Obama winning by 11 (53-42).  Unless you believe the undecided broke 100% for McCain, Romney's ahead right now, but it's pretty obvious that their LV screen is way too rigid.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  48, -1

Disapprove:  51, +1

Strongly Approve:  29, -1

Strongly Disapprove:  43, -1

Head to Head:

Romney: 48, -1

Obama:  48, +1

Two thirds of the sample is post 2nd debate.

[J. J.]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  50, u

Disapprove:  46, +1

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  51, -1

Obama:  45, u

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  47, -1

Disapprove:  52, +1

Strongly Approve:  28, -1

Strongly Disapprove:  44, +1


Head to head (likely):

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  48, u

This is the first totally post 2nd debate tracker. 

Rasmussen indicated that Friday's sample was very strong for Romney. 

Could someone else get Gallup today, as I will be out.  Maybe it will come back to earth.

[Cliffy]

Looking good for Romney.

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  47, -1

Disapprove:  52, +1

Strongly Approve:  28, -1

Strongly Disapprove:  44, +1


Head to head (likely):

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  48, u

This is the first totally post 2nd debate tracker. 

Rasmussen indicated that Friday's sample was very strong for Romney. 

Could someone else get Gallup today, as I will be out.  Maybe it will come back to earth.

[J. J.]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  49, -1

Disapprove:  46, u

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  51, u

Obama:  45, u

You can always tell when Obama's numbers are bad or at least not improving.  Nobody posts them. 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  49, +2

Disapprove:  51, -1

Strongly Approve:  27, -1

Strongly Disapprove:  43, -1


Head to head (likely):

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, -1

Okay, keep your eye on the Strongly Approved number.  That is the lowest since 9/26.  It might be a bad sample, but it has shown a 5 point drop in four day.

[J. J.]

Gallup Obama Approval:

Approve:  49, u

Disapprove:  44, -1

Head to head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

It's 2022 already?!