My House Predictions

[morgieb]

Unfortunately I lost my predictions for Alabama - Indiana. I will complete them at a different date.

Iowa:

IA-01 - Safe D (nothing to see here)
IA-02 - Likely D (looks interesting for whatever reason)
IA-03 - Leans R (Boswell never really entrenched himself in this district and Latham won by landslides. You do the math)
IA-04 - Leans R (King isn't very appetising to swing voters and Vilsack is the wife of a (popular?) former governor, yet most people agree King has a narrow advantage)

Kansas:

All seats safe for incumbent party.

Kentucky:

KY-01, KY-02, KY-03, KY-04 (not sure about this one as it's ancestrally Dem and the Republican candidate doesn't really fit Kentucky well but it looks safe), KY-05 = safe.

KY-06 - Likely D (if Chandler held on in 2010, he can hold on again although he may never truly be safe)

Louisiana:

All seats safe for incumbent party.

Maine:

ME-01 - Safe D (nothing to see here)
ME-02 - Likely D (Michaud is strong but Raye has got experience)

Maryland:

All seats safe for incumbent party barring MD-06, which is Likely D (Bartlett seems senile and his district is now quite Democratic).

Massachusetts:

All seats safe for incumbent party barring MA-06, which is Tilt R (Tisei seems to be strong, Republican prospects look better here than normal, and Tierney was tarnished (rightly or wrongly) by his gambling scandal)

Michigan:

MI-02, MI-04, MI-05, MI-07, MI-08, MI-09, MI-10, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14 = safe.

MI-01 - Leans D (polling has been ugly here and the area is ancestrally Dem)
MI-03 - Likely R (this district should be a slam dunk but Amash seems rather loopy)
MI-06 - Likely R (sleeper, interesting polling here)
MI-11 - Leans R (I dunno what other sort of circumstances could make this district competitive)