PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.

[J. J.]

They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.

It's a statistical tie. Pulling out also gives Romney room to hit Ohio and Virginia.

On this poll; the others are trending higher as well.

Obama needs to keep up the fight in OH; he still has a good shot at VA.

[J. J.]

They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.

It's a statistical tie. Pulling out also gives Romney room to hit Ohio and Virginia.

On this poll; the others are trending higher as well.

J.J., when you say a poll is trending higher, does that mean you expect any increase in Romney's numbers demonstrates momentum that leads to further increases that should be priced in?

I mean that the other polls are showing that Romney has increased as well and even assuming a minor Democratic "house bias" from PPP (and I assume it is less than Nate Silver), it probably is higher.

Unless Obama is great Tuesday night, I'd say, hit OH and VA (and some of the smaller states). 

I was a big advocate of Kerry pulling out of FL in 2004 and moving to OH; it might have made a difference.

FL is nice, but the price of winning it is probably OH, VA, IA, WI, and maybe NV.

[J. J.]

In fact, if Obama wins Florida, he just needs one more swing state, even New Hampshire (the smallest one), and he's at or over 270.

The problem is:

A.  He still might lose FL.

B.  He'd run a higher chance of losing additional states.