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  Talk Elections
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  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
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Author Topic: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.  (Read 1834 times)
pa2011
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« on: October 14, 2012, 06:31:38 pm »
« edited: October 14, 2012, 07:18:02 pm by pa2011 »

 Romney 49. Obama 48. (Romney up 3, Obama down 2 since last PPP Poll  3 weeks ago)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2012, 06:33:12 pm »

They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.
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Marston
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2012, 06:33:34 pm »

This is actually better for Obama than I was expecting. I was thinking Mitt would be 50%+. Guess not.
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Ty440
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2012, 06:35:36 pm »
« Edited: October 14, 2012, 06:40:06 pm by Obamanation of Obama's Nation »

Actually a good result, Mitt Romney NEEDS FL Obama doesn't at all.

Also Obama getting 48% in FL is awesome, that means he is doing good nationally as FL leans right a couple of percentage points.
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King
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2012, 06:38:59 pm »

Democrats shouldn't be giving up this easy.  To be a 2nd President, Obama only needs 270, but to be a good 2nd term President, he needs at least 300 because he needs to pick up the House along the way if he has any hope of getting anything done.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2012, 06:41:08 pm »

Decent number, better than expected..
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philly09
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2012, 06:45:04 pm »

Poll was conducted from October 12-14 with 791 likely voters.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2012, 06:45:59 pm »

They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.

WTF, because they're down one?
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2012, 06:46:04 pm »

Numbers seem about right. If the race were abouit tied nationally then FL should be -1. But I dont see why Obama would ever abandon FL
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Bacon King
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2012, 06:46:10 pm »

Democrats shouldn't be giving up this easy.  To be a 2nd President, Obama only needs 270, but to be a good 2nd term President, he needs at least 300 because he needs to pick up the House along the way if he has any hope of getting anything done.

I agree that Obama shouldn't be conceding Florida just because he's within the margin of error; that's a bit silly of an argument for everyone to be making here.

However, no matter how well Obama does, the numerous post-redistricting GOP gerrymanders across the country still make retaking the House an extremely difficult proposition.
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
Clinton1996
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2012, 06:53:03 pm »

They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.

WTF, because they're down one?
Well not pull out, but don't spend as much. It's not necessary to get to 270, but it is for Romney. The Governor and Super-Pacs are planning on blanketing the airwaves the last month of the race. Obama should fill Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado with ads from here til November and lock Romney out of the electoral-college. And it gets him over 300, 303-235.
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philly09
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2012, 06:53:42 pm »

North Carolina coming up soon.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2012, 06:54:18 pm »

They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.

It's a statistical tie. Pulling out also gives Romney room to hit Ohio and Virginia.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2012, 06:54:25 pm »

Democrats shouldn't be giving up this easy.  To be a 2nd President, Obama only needs 270, but to be a good 2nd term President, he needs at least 300 because he needs to pick up the House along the way if he has any hope of getting anything done.

I agree that Obama shouldn't be conceding Florida just because he's within the margin of error; that's a bit silly of an argument for everyone to be making here.

However, no matter how well Obama does, the numerous post-redistricting GOP gerrymanders across the country still make retaking the House an extremely difficult proposition.

True but Florida is one of the few states where Obama could benefit House Dem candidates by driving up turnout in competitive districts. There's not much he can do in Virginia, North Carolina, or Ohio House districts by comparison.
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morgieb
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2012, 06:58:25 pm »

Somewhat better.
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J. J.
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« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2012, 07:04:16 pm »

They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.

It's a statistical tie. Pulling out also gives Romney room to hit Ohio and Virginia.

On this poll; the others are trending higher as well.

Obama needs to keep up the fight in OH; he still has a good shot at VA.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2012, 07:06:35 pm »

They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.

It's a statistical tie. Pulling out also gives Romney room to hit Ohio and Virginia.

On this poll; the others are trending higher as well.

J.J., when you say a poll is trending higher, does that mean you expect any increase in Romney's numbers demonstrates momentum that leads to further increases that should be priced in?
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Cliffy
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« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2012, 07:09:18 pm »

PPP.......so Romney is up 5+ in Florida. Nothing new here, Obama's super pacs didn't pull out two weeks ago because their internals are showing Romney up by 1.......
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JFK-Democrat
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2012, 07:11:43 pm »

It would be a horrible move tactically to withdraw from Florida, not only would it free-up resources for Romney to compete in Ohio and Virginia; but it would shave a couple points off Obama's numbers nationally because some Democrats would become dispirited because they would assume that Obama cannot win the election and just stay home.

I actually think they should fight harder for Florida, force Romney and the SuperPACS to defend it until Election Day. Florida will not break more than 2-3% in either direction so its still essentially a tossup.

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J. J.
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« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2012, 07:19:46 pm »

They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.

It's a statistical tie. Pulling out also gives Romney room to hit Ohio and Virginia.

On this poll; the others are trending higher as well.

J.J., when you say a poll is trending higher, does that mean you expect any increase in Romney's numbers demonstrates momentum that leads to further increases that should be priced in?

I mean that the other polls are showing that Romney has increased as well and even assuming a minor Democratic "house bias" from PPP (and I assume it is less than Nate Silver), it probably is higher.

Unless Obama is great Tuesday night, I'd say, hit OH and VA (and some of the smaller states). 

I was a big advocate of Kerry pulling out of FL in 2004 and moving to OH; it might have made a difference.

FL is nice, but the price of winning it is probably OH, VA, IA, WI, and maybe NV.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2012, 07:21:20 pm »

New Poll: Florida President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-10-14

Summary: D: 48%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #21 on: October 14, 2012, 07:25:10 pm »
« Edited: October 14, 2012, 07:34:47 pm by Lief »

FL is nice, but the price of winning it is probably OH, VA, IA, WI, and maybe NV.

Er... J.J., you realize this map is an Obama win, right?



In fact, if Obama wins Florida, he just needs one more swing state, even New Hampshire (the smallest one), and he's at or over 270.
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pa2011
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« Reply #22 on: October 14, 2012, 07:56:01 pm »

Highly doubtful Obama would ever pull out of Florida, especially since the campaign keeps talking about how great their ground game is there and how good voter registration has been going And after raising $180 million last month, sort of doubt Obama is facing a cash flow problem? How much money can realistically be spent in Ohio?
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Cliffy
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« Reply #23 on: October 14, 2012, 08:01:59 pm »

So Dem LV will be 2 better than the state registration and 4 better than Republicans?  


Romney wins Independents by 8.
Republicans are 4% undecided compared to Dems1%, not likely.

Another skew is by race according to registration.
Hispanics according to state reg #s are 12%, PPP has 17% and has whites at 66% vs 69%.

D-41% (Current state reg #s are 39%)
R-37%
I-22%

Like I said Romney 5+, is conservative.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #24 on: October 14, 2012, 08:03:53 pm »

You know there's a difference between state registration and self-identification?
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