Which of these underdog Senate candidates would win with an Obama collapse?

[BM]

I couldn't sleep last night fantasizing about these people in the Senate. I'm worried

Allen and Thompson are probably obvious but I included them anyway.

[Vosem]

George Allen is probably ahead right now after the debate he had with Kaine, so definitely him. Won't take much of a push to put Brown ahead of Warren. In the event of Obama coming to trail by 3-5 points, Thompson, Mandel, and Akin (eww!) will probably come to take the lead. Romney wins by Obama-'08-style margins, you can add Smith and McMahon to the list. A bit more and Wilson enters the Senate.  The candidates running in particularly weird states (Summers and Lingle) are running in weird states and therefore it's difficult to say where those races are relative to the nation. If Obama's loss is Carter-'80-style, Mack and Kyrillos come into play.

Nobody on your list is an impossibility but some candidates are real longshots.

[RogueBeaver]

Define collapse.

[Phony Moderate]

George Allen is probably ahead right now after the debate he had with Kaine, so definitely him. .

Luckily for Kaine, only about 5 people watch Senate debates.

[Ogre Mage]

Nate Silver notes that Obama's problems have not showed up in the polls for Democrats running for Senate:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/g-o-p-senate-hopes-fade-even-as-romneys-rise-polls-show/#more-35955

In answer to the question, however, Virginia is a state where I believe the Presidential and Senate races are likely to track closely, especially given how Kaine and Allen are so closely associated with their national parties.  Kaine could survive a narrow Romney win in VA, but I don't see him winning if Obama completely collapses.

[Frodo]

I wonder what effect such a collapse would have at the House, gubernatorial, and state legislature levels.  

[Ichabod]

Nate Silver notes that Obama's problems have not showed up in the polls for Democrats running for Senate:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/g-o-p-senate-hopes-fade-even-as-romneys-rise-polls-show/#more-35955

In answer to the question, however, Virginia is a state where I believe the Presidential and Senate races are likely to track closely, especially given how Kaine and Allen are so closely associated with their national parties.  Kaine could survive a narrow Romney win in VA, but I don't see him winning if Obama completely collapses.

I tend to think that Senates races might not be so closely related with the Presidential one. In 1984 (OK, 28 years ago), Reagan won by 18 points nationally, but Republicans only unseated one incumbent and just by 0.5 points.

[Kitteh]

I think the ones in red-to-purple states are the most likely to be affected, especially if an Obama collapse depresses Democrats and energizes Republicans. If Obama is losing Missouri 60-40 it's hard to see McCaskill holding on. I tend to think that an Obama collapse would affect senate races in blue states where the Republicans are dependent on crossover support less. So that means (in order) MO, VA, WI, FL, OH...I think those were the only ones I voted for.

[morgieb]

Define an "Obama collapse".

[Bacon King]

No need to worry, BeccaM, no concern here that's worth losing sleep over.

If Obama somehow collapses in the polls, it'll be due to something that causes independent swing voters to swing massively to Romney. This sort of voter loves to split their tickets- note that in most of these states you can already see this effect, with candidates like Sherrod Brown, Bill Nelson, Tim Kaine, etc, all polling significantly better than Obama in their respective states.

The only sort of collapse that would cause downballot problems like this would be something that significantly dampens Democratic base turnout, but this election is so polarized I don't see any scenario where that could happen. Besides, by all indications it looks like Obama's supporters are showing up in droves to do early voting, just like in 2008, so that gives a cushion to Democratic Senate candidates as well which would mitigate any sudden collapse like that.

Honestly, it looks like Romney has absolutely no coattails, and I don't think a collapse of any sort would change that.       

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Brown, Thompson, and Akin were all favored and were never underdogs until several turns of events recently.

[BM]

Brown, Thompson, and Akin were all favored and were never underdogs until several turns of events recently.

No.

And I was talking about now .

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Brown, Thompson, and Akin were all favored and were never underdogs until several turns of events recently.

No.

Whoever won that primary was going to be favored, until Akin opened his mouth.

[BM]

He was favored for like one day then. Big deal.

[BigSkyBob]

Nate Silver notes that Obama's problems have not showed up in the polls for Democrats running for Senate:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/g-o-p-senate-hopes-fade-even-as-romneys-rise-polls-show/#more-35955

In answer to the question, however, Virginia is a state where I believe the Presidential and Senate races are likely to track closely, especially given how Kaine and Allen are so closely associated with their national parties.  Kaine could survive a narrow Romney win in VA, but I don't see him winning if Obama completely collapses.

I tend to think that Senates races might not be so closely related with the Presidential one. In 1984 (OK, 28 years ago), Reagan won by 18 points nationally, but Republicans only unseated one incumbent and just by 0.5 points.

That would indicate Obama's upside in being reelected in a landslide. When Reagan unseated an unpopular incumbent in 1980 in a landslide the GOP gained 12 Senate seats.

[Mr.Phips]

Nate Silver notes that Obama's problems have not showed up in the polls for Democrats running for Senate:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/g-o-p-senate-hopes-fade-even-as-romneys-rise-polls-show/#more-35955

In answer to the question, however, Virginia is a state where I believe the Presidential and Senate races are likely to track closely, especially given how Kaine and Allen are so closely associated with their national parties.  Kaine could survive a narrow Romney win in VA, but I don't see him winning if Obama completely collapses.

I tend to think that Senates races might not be so closely related with the Presidential one. In 1984 (OK, 28 years ago), Reagan won by 18 points nationally, but Republicans only unseated one incumbent and just by 0.5 points.

Those were when politics were far less polarized.  In the last three Presidential elections, the party that won the Presidential popular vote won the overwhelming majority of the tossup Senate races.  That is what happens with the decline of ticket splitting.

To answer the original poster's question, probably Mandel, Allen, and Smith in PA.  Lingle and Brown wont be helped because Obama is going to carry those states handily no matter what.