"Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college" at 5.2% on 538

[© tweed]

the thinking man's desired outcome

[Badger]

It would create a non-stop bitchfest for months, much like Democrats would've in 2000 had their focus not been on Florida and hanging chads, etc. But at least it might spur a bi-partisan effort to finally jettison the electoral college.

[© tweed]

It would create a non-stop bitchfest for months, much like Democrats would've in 2000 had their focus not been on Florida and hanging chads, etc. But at least it might spur a bi-partisan effort to finally jettison the electoral college.

both of these are good things.

[5280]

This will lead to the electoral college being abolished, which I want to see happen. Congressional district voting like Nebraska and Maine should be looked into for all 50 states.

[Likely Voter]

If this happened it would like be WI+OH+NV. It is also conceivable that NV would be polling Romney+1 before the election as it has traditionally underpolled Dems. But it would incite calls for recounts, lawsuits, etc. There would be accusations of fraud, and unions stuffing the ballot box, etc.  It would be a total clusterf**k. FOX news would go ballistic.

[opebo]

It would create a non-stop bitchfest for months, much like Democrats would've in 2000 had their focus not been on Florida and hanging chads, etc. But at least it might spur a bi-partisan effort to finally jettison the electoral college.

both of these are good things.

Well, lets just hope the deciding state of this outcome has at least a few thousand votes margin, because don't forget the supreme court is Republican.

[Yelnoc]

This will lead to the electoral college being abolished, which I want to see happen. Congressional district voting like Nebraska and Maine should be looked into for all 50 states.

Oh yes, let's gerrymander electoral votes too.  Wonderful idea.

[© tweed]

If this happened it would like be WI+OH+NV. It is also conceivable that NV would be polling Romney+1 before the election as it has traditionally underpolled Dems. But it would incite calls for recounts, lawsuits, etc. There would be accusations of fraud, and unions stuffing the ballot box, etc.  It would be a total clusterf**k. FOX news would go ballistic.

unless there was a deciding state margin of <10k I'm not sure how far that could go.

[5280]

This will lead to the electoral college being abolished, which I want to see happen. Congressional district voting like Nebraska and Maine should be looked into for all 50 states.

Oh yes, let's gerrymander electoral votes too.  Wonderful idea.

Its better than winner take all.

[opebo]

This will lead to the electoral college being abolished, which I want to see happen. Congressional district voting like Nebraska and Maine should be looked into for all 50 states.

Nah, just total popular vote wins is the obvious thing.

If this happened it would like be WI+OH+NV. It is also conceivable that NV would be polling Romney+1 before the election as it has traditionally underpolled Dems. But it would incite calls for recounts, lawsuits, etc. There would be accusations of fraud, and unions stuffing the ballot box, etc.  It would be a total clusterf**k. FOX news would go ballistic.

If it comes out in that way the Republicans would ultimately take it to the supreme court, where they would win, as it is a completely partisan and biased institution.

[© tweed]

they need to produce a count at the state level which shows Romney ahead -- the most the SCOTUS can do is a) effectively certify this result amidst other results, or b) set rules designed to achieve this result (the more trying route -- forecasts never are perfect).

[Likely Voter]

If there is any reform it would be for the NPVIC. So far only traditional Dem states have signed on, but this would inspire so GOP states.

Moving to NE type of laws is less likely. Its like with nukes. CA will only give up on WTA when TX does it. One side is not going to go down this road until they know the other is doing it. the NPVIC takes care of that as it only goes into effect when there are 270+ EVs in the compact.

[Devils30]

Congressional district voting for President is a joke and I think you can argue that while states may allocate electoral votes as they choose, that scheme would violate one person/one vote. The state has fixed borders, congressional districts dont.

[opebo]

they need to produce a count at the state level which shows Romney ahead -- the most the SCOTUS can do is a) effectively certify this result amidst other results, or b) set rules designed to achieve this result (the more trying route -- forecasts never are perfect).

I'm sure they would do whatever possible to try to rig this, but it would require a very close outcome, presumably in one of OH/WI/NV/IA.  Not sure how amenable those states are to dirty tricks, compared to Florida, but they're pretty R controlled at the state level, no?

I wouldn't be wishing for this electoral college outcome, Tweed - it is best to remember that the Republican is the party with the most levers of power at its command.

[Likely Voter]

Other scenarios also seem up on the 538 analysis: 1.1% chance of tie, 1.7% chance of Romney wins EV, Obama wins PV. Combined that's a 8% chance of EV weirdness. There is also a 9.9% chance of a recount in a decisive state. All in all there is a growing chance of this not being a clean win for either.

[Badger]

This will lead to the electoral college being abolished, which I want to see happen. Congressional district voting like Nebraska and Maine should be looked into for all 50 states.

Oh yes, let's gerrymander electoral votes too.  Wonderful idea.

Its better than winner take all.

How? If you truly believe in democracy you can't believe in that.

[後援会]

No matter what your political views are, a very close, nasty, unclear victory is going to be very bad for the country.

[opebo]

No matter what your political views are, a very close, nasty, unclear victory is going to be very bad for the country.

Yes, particularly if it ends in judicial coup d'etat again.

[Indy Texas]

If Obama wins the EV but not the PV, the Republicans will have a tantrum that will put the Democrats post-2000 grumbling to shame.

These people refused to accept him as their legitimate president even when a majority of Americans did vote for him (the highest percentage any president had gotten in twenty years).

[LiberalJunkie]

This will lead to the electoral college being abolished, which I want to see happen. Congressional district voting like Nebraska and Maine should be looked into for all 50 states.

Lol yes cause that happened in 2000...

[© tweed]

This will lead to the electoral college being abolished, which I want to see happen. Congressional district voting like Nebraska and Maine should be looked into for all 50 states.

Lol yes cause that happened in 2000...

it's sort-of been happening in super-slow motion with the national popular vote compact thing.  another split decision could be the necessary shock to the balls.

[morgieb]

This will lead to the electoral college being abolished, which I want to see happen. Congressional district voting like Nebraska and Maine should be looked into for all 50 states.

That's even worse than the status quo.

[Sasquatch]

This is the outcome I'm rooting for.

[Wisconsin+17]

Man, I'd short that so hard, it would be hanging off of the lowrise jeans of Gary Coleman.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This will lead to the electoral college being abolished, which I want to see happen. Congressional district voting like Nebraska and Maine should be looked into for all 50 states.

That's even worse than the status quo.

Exactly.