PPP -- Obama lead cut in half in Nevada.

[pa2011]

Obama 51 Romney 47, down from a 9 point lead. When you consider Gary Johnson, Obama's lead actually shrinks to 1, 48 to 47. A huge turnout of Hispanics will be key for Obama's chances to keep the state.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-heller-lead-in-nevada-1.html

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If that's the best Romney can do now, it's safe to say he's not carrying the state. If I was on his campaign I'd be shifting any resources in the west to Colorado.

[pa2011]

If  Romney were to give up on Nevada, he  would have almost no path for victory if he were to lose Ohio and Wisconsin.  Obama would still have 271 electoral votes, even if Romney won New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida and Iowa.

[J. J.]

If that's the best Romney can do now, it's safe to say he's not carrying the state. If I was on his campaign I'd be shifting any resources in the west to Colorado.

Some focus groups showed Romney's numbers improving with Hispanic women after the debate.  It was a subset of Walmart Moms. 

[Alcon]

If that's the best Romney can do now, it's safe to say he's not carrying the state. If I was on his campaign I'd be shifting any resources in the west to Colorado.

Some focus groups showed Romney's numbers improving with Hispanic women after the debate.  It was a subset of Walmart Moms. 

Oh good, finally the focus numbers for Hispanic women with children who go to Wal-Mart are in.  I am sure we can draw very robust conclusions for that tiny sub-sample of a focus group (when focus groups are so useful to begin with.)

I think you just wanted to say "Wal-Mart moms."

[J. J.]

If that's the best Romney can do now, it's safe to say he's not carrying the state. If I was on his campaign I'd be shifting any resources in the west to Colorado.

Some focus groups showed Romney's numbers improving with Hispanic women after the debate.  It was a subset of Walmart Moms. 

Oh good, finally the focus numbers for Hispanic women with children who go to Wal-Mart are in.  I am sure we can draw very robust conclusions for that tiny sub-sample of a focus group (when focus groups are so useful to begin with.)

I think you just wanted to say "Wal-Mart moms."

No, but it was interesting that they noted it.  We don't really have good polling on the demographic (at last that I've looked at) and I'm worried that Obama's support there is being underpolled.

[NVGonzalez]

Yeah Romney is not taking my home state.

[Alcon]

If that's the best Romney can do now, it's safe to say he's not carrying the state. If I was on his campaign I'd be shifting any resources in the west to Colorado.

Some focus groups showed Romney's numbers improving with Hispanic women after the debate.  It was a subset of Walmart Moms. 

Oh good, finally the focus numbers for Hispanic women with children who go to Wal-Mart are in.  I am sure we can draw very robust conclusions for that tiny sub-sample of a focus group (when focus groups are so useful to begin with.)

I think you just wanted to say "Wal-Mart moms."

No, but it was interesting that they noted it.  We don't really have good polling on the demographic (at last that I've looked at) and I'm worried that Obama's support there is being underpolled.

We don't have solid polling in that demographic in great part because it's a relatively small subsample...but your alternative is a focus group?  How big of a "female Hispanic parents who shop at Wal-Mart" sample did this focus group involve?

[J. J.]

If that's the best Romney can do now, it's safe to say he's not carrying the state. If I was on his campaign I'd be shifting any resources in the west to Colorado.

Some focus groups showed Romney's numbers improving with Hispanic women after the debate.  It was a subset of Walmart Moms. 

Oh good, finally the focus numbers for Hispanic women with children who go to Wal-Mart are in.  I am sure we can draw very robust conclusions for that tiny sub-sample of a focus group (when focus groups are so useful to begin with.)

I think you just wanted to say "Wal-Mart moms."

No, but it was interesting that they noted it.  We don't really have good polling on the demographic (at last that I've looked at) and I'm worried that Obama's support there is being underpolled.

We don't have solid polling in that demographic in great part because it's a relatively small subsample...but your alternative is a focus group?  How big of a "female Hispanic parents who shop at Wal-Mart" sample did this focus group involve?

I was thinking more along the line of Hispanic women.  Or even post debate Hispanic voters.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We know there's chronic under-polling of democrats in NV.... which I generally don't understand...

[Lief 🗽]

We know there's chronic under-polling of democrats in NV.... which I generally don't understand...

Hispanics with cell phones who don't speak English.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We know there's chronic under-polling of democrats in NV.... which I generally don't understand...

Hispanics with cell phones who don't speak English.

That... makes sense...

[J. J.]

We know there's chronic under-polling of democrats in NV.... which I generally don't understand...

Hispanics with cell phones who don't speak English.

That... makes sense...

Older Hispanics?  2nd 3rd generation probably speak English.

[Brittain33]

Dems have been surging in voter registration in Nevada. In Clark County, they've reached a 119,000 voter edge, nearly the 125,000 they had in 2008. Ralston notes they brought in 15,000 new registrations on Saturday.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/10/dem-edge-grows-in-key-nevada-county-137832.html?hp=r8

[J. J.]

That is still down.  When does registration end?

[Brittain33]

That is still down.  When does registration end?

J.J., it is lower than 2008, marginally, but well up from where it was after the 2010 elections.

Obama won by what, 17 points in 2008? Something absurd like that? He has a bigger margin of error here than he did in a state like Virginia or Colorado.

[Brittain33]

12.5 points.