Predictions with 30 days to go

[Lief 🗽]

Sequel to this thread. Feel free to post electoral map predictions too.

Ten days ago:
93% said Obama would be re-elected.
92% said Democrats would hold the Senate.
80% said Republicans would hold the House.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama/Democrats/Republicans

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama/Democrats/Republicans

[Antonio the Sixth]

Obama/Democrats/Republicans, unchanged.

My prediction maps predate the debate, so they aren't worth much. I'll update them on Tuesday.

[Averroës Nix]

My predictions predate the debate, but I'm not convinced that I'd manage greater accuracy by updating them. I would prefer to err on the side of optimism, anyway.

House: D +10

Senate: 51-47-2

President: 323-215

[LastVoter]

Obama/D/D
brief explanation: the dynamics of the race are unchanged despite what Mainstream media wants you to believe, there are still plenty of visceral republicans in somewhat vulnerable districts(+2 to +7 PVI) that will fall, because Republicans didn't consider personal scandals during their gerrymander. Also the jobs report negated the "bad" debate performance. The only thing that could change this race is Obamaphone video going viral.

[J. J.]

This is my current map.

I'd say the map is 50% likely.

Obama/Republican/Republican

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The only thing that could change this race is Obamaphone video going viral.

What are you talking about?

[NVGonzalez]

My prediction map stands, as it always has been.

[LastVoter]

The only thing that could change this race is Obamaphone video going viral.

What are you talking about?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpAOwJvTOio
The racist white working class.

[courts]

obama/democrats/democrats

presidential race:

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The only thing that could change this race is Obamaphone video going viral.

What are you talking about?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpAOwJvTOio
The racist white working class.

This video was discredited as a hoax a week ago.

[LiberalJunkie]

Obama/Democrats/Republicans

[LastVoter]

The only thing that could change this race is Obamaphone video going viral.

What are you talking about?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpAOwJvTOio
The racist white working class.

This video was discredited as a hoax a week ago.

Republicans can only win using three things, god, racism, and resentment. Since Mittens can't do the god and doesn't have the proper personality to channel frustration, he can only use racism. Whether or not something is true or not has no relevance to those points, as you are aware(the most obvious one being religion). As much as politico wants personal financial well-being/economy be an issue that Republicans can win on, it is simply not true because majority of people are not sadists.

[J. J.]

The only thing that could change this race is Obamaphone video going viral.

What are you talking about?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpAOwJvTOio
The racist white working class.

This video was discredited as a hoax a week ago.

Republicans can only win using three things, god, racism, and resentment. Since Mittens can't do the god and doesn't have the proper personality to channel frustration, he can only use racism. Whether or not something is true or not has no relevance to those points, as you are aware(the most obvious one being religion). As much as politico wants personal financial well-being/economy be an issue that Republicans can win on, it is simply not true because majority of people are not sadists.

Neither a hoax nor racism, though the woman is a buffoon.  There is a program to give cell phones to poor people.  Somebody thought MacKaskill was one:  http://fox4kc.com/2012/02/08/cellphone-fraud-cost-metro-taxpayers/

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Obama / Tie (which goes to whoever wins the White House, so I chose Dems in the poll) / GOP

[LastVoter]

The only thing that could change this race is Obamaphone video going viral.

What are you talking about?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpAOwJvTOio
The racist white working class.

This video was discredited as a hoax a week ago.

Republicans can only win using three things, god, racism, and resentment. Since Mittens can't do the god and doesn't have the proper personality to channel frustration, he can only use racism. Whether or not something is true or not has no relevance to those points, as you are aware(the most obvious one being religion). As much as politico wants personal financial well-being/economy be an issue that Republicans can win on, it is simply not true because majority of people are not sadists.

Neither a hoax nor racism, though the woman is a buffoon.  There is a program to give cell phones to poor people.  Somebody thought MacKaskill was one:  http://fox4kc.com/2012/02/08/cellphone-fraud-cost-metro-taxpayers/

If using this in negative ads is not racism, I don't know what is.

[Politico]

30 days to go, and I must go (Flying to Florida and will not have time to play on here). I shall return at some point after Mitt Romney is officially declared president-elect. I will accept my accolades as I bestow upon the Honorable Badger a signature that publicly shames him for his support of a president who is clearly in over his head.

Predictions Down The Stretch:

- 21st Century Nero continues to fiddle with his teleprompter while America burns. If only his administration and ideology were as good as his speechwriters!
- Embedded (mostly closeted) LGBT activists within the media will continue their games until the truth can no longer be distorted.
- GOP retains control of the House. Hopefully Democrats dump that shrill San Francisco liberal.
- Democrats retain control of the Senate, or it ends up roughly split down the middle. Too close to call at this point.

Liberals, I recommend bracing yourselves because there will probably not be another liberal in the White House for another generation. Good luck trying to convince America that we want four more years of the last four years...

Non-liberals, be afraid. America will burn to the ground if Nero is re-elected.

God bless America!

[5280]

My predictions predate the debate, but I'm not convinced that I'd manage greater accuracy by updating them. I would prefer to err on the side of optimism, anyway.

House: D +10

Senate: 51-47-2

President: 323-215

Pretty much this, expect I'm 50/50 on who is going to be president.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Obama,Dems,GOP(but they will lose a handful of seats)

[Mister Twister]

I voted for both Obama and Romney so I could screw with the poll

[NHI]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans
Presidency: Undecided

The race is still a fifty fifty, will make a final decision after last debate.

[pbrower2a]

Democrats win all three. Mitt Romney has gotten no significant benefit from winning the first debate, the Democrats have gone from 'probably losing' the  Senate to perhaps gaining some seats, and the House Republican majority has had an approval rating near those for rattlesnakes, crack cocaine, and child abuse.

[opebo]

...Hopefully Democrats dump that shrill San Francisco liberal.

Come on, Poli, be a hack all you like, but please, please, don't be a misogynist.  Or rather, hide your misogyny.  We don't want to see it.

[Torie]

Badger's 8 to 5 odds in favor of Obama in that bet he offered about 10 days ago still seems about right to me, since I sort of expected Mittens would make up some ground vis a vis the debates, offset a bit by the unemployment number drop. The House stays Pub (a loss of 10 seats max by the Pubs), and the Senate is all over the map. Maybe about 50-50 that it will be a 50-50 split. But if I had to bet, I think the Dems have a slight edge now.