will BRTD predict 50 states worth of counties this year?

[© tweed]

will BRTD predict 50 states worth of counties this year?

[Boris]

I certainly hope so! It'll be nice to have at least one thread worth reading in this subforum.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know I was thinking about that for the past couple weeks. I was going to say it almost certainly won't be done before October 12, but then remembered it might be easier this year due to less variation. Maybe I should start with the easy ones like last time and get into the groove.

[memphis]

How accurate was he last time?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've decided that the answer to this question is yes, and I'll be able to start after Friday, when my work's insane hour requirements will be over.

[patrick1]

I've decided that the answer to this question is yes, and I'll be able to start after Friday, when my work's insane hour requirements will be over.

go see a few concerts or movies instead.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've decided that the answer to this question is yes, and I'll be able to start after Friday, when my work's insane hour requirements will be over.

go see a few concerts or movies instead.

I go to shows, not concerts, and that's actually what I've primarily focused on organizing my free time for now to see (I'm not working any extra hours tomorrow for example so I can go to Teenage Bottlerocket for example.) Besides it's not like I don't work on other things while I make my maps and I actually enjoy it (which is funny because making maps in MS Paint the way I do would probably be considered one of the most tedious and boring tasks imaginable for 99% of the population.)

[memphis]

How accurate was he last time?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Check it out yourself: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=85491.0

I'll probably also do the Minnesota Senate race (yeah it'll be a blowout but the map might be interesting in who does vote for Bills) and the amendments. And maybe some other Senate races if I have time.

[ajc0918]

[Donerail]

His original Florida one wasn't



Though his later one was.



Though seeing Democrats winning Okeechobee and Madison...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think I based Florida more off 2000 than 2004, and in 2000 Okeechobee was close, and it had a rather weird swing too (seriously look at the swing map for Florida, it totally stands out.) Madison was close in both 2000 and 2004 and is 40% black so I was underestimating the swing against Obama in some areas quite a bit (though Madison still didn't vote for McCain by that much. I missed some counties by a lot more.)

[memphis]

I looked back at his '08 predictions. He didn't quite anticipate Obama's utter disaster in the Upper South or his great performance out West, but those were strange results historically. And FL, as other have noticed, was way off. Other than that, his prediction maps were quite good last time around. B+ material.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My biggest mistake in Florida was that I assumed the map would be closer to 2000 as Obama would win Florida, what I didn't account for was that the demographics in certain areas had changed so much and the state was quite different from 2000. My revised map fixed this largely, though I still really botched Okeechobee County (looking up on this place now I can see why it's the type of place where Obama wouldn't do too well...)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Alright, well I'll be a fill-in supervisor tomorrow meaning I'll be closing but coming in later, so I have some time today and likely tomorrow morning, so I'll get this off the ground. Like before, these are subject to change any time between now and the election and I'll do them at my preference in order and convenience. Will get it started.

I will note though, 49 states. Alaska is too tricky. I suppose I could do DC though.