AR-Talk Business/Hendrix College: Romney+21

[Tender Branson]

Q. If the election for President were today, which candidate would you support?

55.5%     Republican Mitt Romney
34.5%     Democrat Barack Obama
3%          Other
7%          Undecided

POLL METHODOLOGY

These four polls, combined into one statewide survey, were conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College on Monday, September 17, 2012. The polls were completed using IVR survey technology among likely general election voters in Arkansas’ four Congressional Districts.

Participants were selected from a database of district voters who have voted in 2 to 4 of the last 4 general elections and who affirmatively answered a question that they intended to vote in the general election on November 6, 2012.

All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce, or rebroadcast information from this poll with proper attribution to Talk Business and Hendrix College.

http://talkbusiness.net/2012/09/mitt-romney-holds-big-lead-on-president-obama/

[LiberalJunkie]

Obama will improve in Tennessee but not here.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Probably too high. Given current polling, this seems like a 57-41 or so state.

[mondale84]

LOL no.

They have had Romney +21 all year despite the massive national swings, so again no.

[Tender Branson]

LOL no.

They have had Romney +21 all year despite the massive national swings, so again no.

You are sounding like Bandit.

AR is one of those states where I can easily see Obama doing worse than 2008.

Obama has absolutely no campaign presence there and people there HATE him.

[Franzl]

LOL no.

They have had Romney +21 all year despite the massive national swings, so again no.

I hope to God you aren't a real person.

[mondale84]

LOL no.

They have had Romney +21 all year despite the massive national swings, so again no.

You are sounding like Bandit.

AR is one of those states where I can easily see Obama doing worse than 2008.

Obama has absolutely no campaign presence there and people there HATE him.

Obama has a campaign office in Little Rock...

[Niemeyerite]

States like Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Mississippi trending republican again this year are probably the reason of Obama not leading by 10 nationwide

[Badger]

LOL no.

They have had Romney +21 all year despite the massive national swings, so again no.

You are sounding like Bandit.

AR is one of those states where I can easily see Obama doing worse than 2008.

Obama has absolutely no campaign presence there and people there HATE him.

Obama has a campaign office in Little Rock...

They probably have one in Salt Lake too.

UT = tilt R.

[Mister Twister]

There's still plenty of room for erosion against Obama in Arkansas. Don't be surprised to see Romney break 60% here. The Democrats are done for here.

[old timey villain]

Mondale, you have to understand that white southerners are a little.....different.

They're not nearly as prone to national swings as other demographics are. Once a trend starts among this group, there's not much you can do to stop it. They decided four years ago that Obama is not the kind of guy they can vote for and they'll vote against him no matter what. And considering that Obama still won 30% of whites in Arkansas, it's pretty much guaranteed that he has further to fall.

[greenforest32]

Mondale, you have to understand that white southerners are a little.....different.

They're not nearly as prone to national swings as other demographics are. Once a trend starts among this group, there's not much you can do to stop it. They decided four years ago that Obama is not the kind of guy they can vote for and they'll vote against him no matter what. And considering that Obama still won 30% of whites in Arkansas, it's pretty much guaranteed that he has further to fall.

I think Arkansas Democrats will lose the state legislature in 2012/2014. Aside from West Virginia, MS/AL/LA now have Republican majorities in the state legislature and Arkansas Democrats saw their majority narrow in 2010.

Maybe they'll elect Democrats statewide for Governor/Senator but the state legislature is probably going to be a different story. A bit like Missouri.

[morgieb]

While mondale shouldn't be listened too, I feel these numbers are sorta generous to Romney, given that Tennessee is in single-digits.

[Wisconsin+17]

Hrm. AR is Arkansas not Arizona... And apparently I'm calling for an Obama victory there.

[GMantis]

Let's not forget that this is a state where Obama couldn't break 60% in the Democratic primary against a joke candidate. It's probably a tossup whether Romney reaches 60% here.

[dspNY]

This is a good poll. Arkansas was the last Southern state to realign to the GOP because Clinton's popularity delayed the change.