The Road to Victory

[Politico]

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Romney has definitely not locked down North Carolina. NC is still in a dead heat and the last Fox poll showed Obama up 3 there.

The race is 47-47 nationally according to Gallup. There is no way NC is still a swing state. Same goes for IN. Obama barely won these states in 2008. He is not going to have excitement levels, or turnout, anywhere near those levels this year. Not after the last four years.

I know you deliberately troll but Gallup is the national only poll that currenty shows Obama level; he has a lead in every other one.

Gallup is the only poll that matters, which is why I only cite them on this board. They actually have nonpartisan statisticians working for them, people who are not even interested in politics, unlike most polls you see nowadays. There is no hidden agenda at Gallup.

[Tidus]

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Okay, so that means, if the next Gallup poll shows Obama leading by a margin of 3-4 % you will be totally convinced that Obama is leading nationally 3-4 %

Be careful what you wish for. If you now say Gallup is the only correct polling firm and Gallup polls are the only polls that matter this statement is going to be accredited to you forever or at least for a long time.

So let´s conclude: You think Gallup is the exact right polling organization and their numers are accurate... so let´s wait for the next Gallup polls. From now on I will post every new Gallup poll here that shows Obama in the lead.

Because Politico has a favorable opinion of Gallup polls.

Let´s see where it will lead us...

[Politico]

The race is fluid and close. Gallup is accurately reporting this. Their conclusions are reached from analysis done by nonpartisan PhD statisticians. Furthermore, there is no reason to believe that Gallup has a hidden agenda. That is all I am going to say on the matter.

[Wisconsin+17]

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5 tossups are not all going to go Romney.

[opebo]

Romney - 274
Obama - 264

Why would you post that map instead of a more obvious one:

Winning MN is just so unlikely, Virginia not really that unlikely at all.. 

At least Politico, while quite unrealistic, maintains 'conventional wisdom' about the relative leans of the states.

[SPQR]

North Carolina locked down? Did I miss something?

[Platypus]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157547/democratic-enthusiasm-swells-swing-states-nationally.aspx

More good news for Romney from Gallup.

[Politico]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157547/democratic-enthusiasm-swells-swing-states-nationally.aspx

More good news for Romney from Gallup.

Like Obama, these Democrats talk the talk but will not walk the walk. And who can blame them after the last four years of disappointment? There is not a single person on the planet who seriously believes that Obama delivered as promised four years ago.

Obama is clinging to 8% unemployment and $4/gallon gasoline. Nobody wants more of this. This cannot go on.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157547/democratic-enthusiasm-swells-swing-states-nationally.aspx

More good news for Romney from Gallup.

Like Obama, these Democrats talk the talk but will not walk the walk. And who can blame them after the last four years of disappointment? There is not a single person on the planet who seriously believes that Obama delivered as promised four years ago.

Obama is clinging to 8% unemployment and $4/gallon gasoline. Nobody wants more of this.

Considering the image in your head and in your signature... you're clearly prepared to deal with extreme disappointment.

[Politico]

Romney - 274
Obama - 264

Why would you post that map instead of a more obvious one:

Winning MN is just so unlikely, Virginia not really that unlikely at all..  

At least Politico, while quite unrealistic, maintains 'conventional wisdom' about the relative leans of the states.

Yeah, this is a good secondary path to winning. Clearly Romney definitely needs FL, VA, NC and IN. If OH falls, IA/WI/CO (or NV instead of CO) or MI/WI (or IA) need to be picked up. I am supremely confident in FL, VA, NC and IN, but I concede that OH and NH may not go the way I want. That's why I have the hedge on all of these states.

[AmericanNation]

Yeah, this is a good secondary path to winning. Clearly Romney definitely needs FL, VA, NC and IN. If OH falls, IA/WI/CO (or NV instead of CO) or MI/WI (or IA) need to be picked up. I am supremely confident in FL, VA, NC and IN, but I concede that OH and NH may not go the way I want. That's why I have the hedge on all of these states.

Nevada and New Hampshire hedge CO or WI or swap (NV for IA).  So, that's the third tier of the plan.  

Really, Romney only needs VA or OH and he will win is the bottom line.

 I love these people pretending a 47-47 race is "OVER" or a "landslide".  I mean at best BO could be up 49-46.  O wow! that's an insurmountable lead!    

[pbrower2a]

 Minnesota is arguably the state least likely to swing in any direction. It was the best state for Mondale and the second-best for McGovern. It could be below the US average in a Democratic blow-out but it is about even in a Republican blowout.

[AmericanNation]

Minnesota is arguably the state least likely to swing in any direction. It was the best state for Mondale and the second-best for McGovern. It could be below the US average in a Democratic blow-out but it is about even in a Republican blowout.

Yea, MN is becoming more Republican at the state/local level, but there hasn't been much of any indication that that will translate to the Federal election.  Probably an election or two away from that development even being possible. Dems would have to continue their "alienate midwest whites for no reason" campaign as well.  Romney will probably win MI and PA before MN this year, so it's only relevant to 'future' discussions.         

[opebo]

Really, Romney only needs VA or OH and he will win is the bottom line.

What?  You must have meant he win is a given (though it isn't quite) if he gets both of them, not just one of them. 

[Badger]

I think Colorado and Iowa are actually in better position than Virginia or Ohio.

And a win in both of them allows for a loss in Virginia.

Switch Wisconsin for Iowa and you're right.

[Badger]

POLITICO!!!

There, now that I have your attention....

You talked about "talking the talk, but not walking the walk". I am MORE than happy to give you the chance.

Try to be more a statatician then a zealot in analyzing elections, and I think that's your shortcoming here.

I willing to bet you the outcome of any current 08 Obama state at $5 each EXCEPT CO & FL & NC; I'll also give you 5-8 odds on OH, VA, IA, NH and WI (yes, I'm excluding NV from that list) and 2-1 odds on any other Obama 08 states.

I'll be glad to give you 3-2 odds on a $20 bet over the entire election as well. Alternatively, we can bet the other having to bare a (non-TOS violating) sig of the other's choice until Inauguration Day.

Time to walk the walk, Mr. Optomist........

[Torie]

Badger, the above is probably a pretty fair bet at the moment,  but with a lot of uncertainty. Who wants to do a fair bet with a lot of uncertainty?  Now if you give me an option to take up the bet, exercisable in the next two weeks, then we're talking.

[Politico]

POLITICO!!!

There, now that I have your attention....

You talked about "talking the talk, but not walking the walk". I am MORE than happy to give you the chance.

Try to be more a statatician then a zealot in analyzing elections, and I think that's your shortcoming here.

I willing to bet you the outcome of any current 08 Obama state at $5 each EXCEPT CO & FL & NC; I'll also give you 5-8 odds on OH, VA, IA, NH and WI (yes, I'm excluding NV from that list) and 2-1 odds on any other Obama 08 states.

I'll be glad to give you 3-2 odds on a $20 bet over the entire election as well. Alternatively, we can bet the other having to bare a (non-TOS violating) sig of the other's choice until Inauguration Day.

Time to walk the walk, Mr. Optomist........

That would require providing personal information I am not comfortable sharing with you.

[Badger]

Well, name an acceptable 3rd party on the forum you are comfortable with, and we can use them as an intermediary.

Or we can just do the sig thing bet without ever exchanging contact info.

Otherwise you can just make out a money order for my winnings and mail it without a return address. I'm clearly never going to need your address to mail you anything.

[Badger]

Badger, the above is probably a pretty fair bet at the moment,  but with a lot of uncertainty. Who wants to do a fair bet with a lot of uncertainty?  Now if you give me an option to take up the bet, exercisable in the next two weeks, then we're talking.

How about we reconsider in two weeks, counsel? Or if you don't want to wait, make me a counter-offer.

[Badger]

Oh Politicoooooo....

I see no answer to my last offer, neither option of which is going require exchanging personal info.

Well? I'm not going to let this slide, as you seem to hope.

[Northeast Rep Snowball]

Interesting, Badger, you're a (R), you're making this bet, and you have a highly leftist political matrix?

[Politico]

Oh Politicoooooo....

I see no answer to my last offer, neither option of which is going require exchanging personal info.

Well? I'm not going to let this slide, as you seem to hope.

We can do the signature thing. I'm not Pete Rose.

If Obama wins, you get to pick my signature through Inauguration Day (Must meet ToS). If Romney wins, you have to revert back to a red avatar and I get to pick your signature  through Inauguration Day (Must meet ToS). Deal?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Oh Politicoooooo....

I see no answer to my last offer, neither option of which is going require exchanging personal info.

Well? I'm not going to let this slide, as you seem to hope.

We can do the signature thing. I'm not Pete Rose.

If Obama wins, you get to pick my signature through Inauguration Day (Must meet ToS). If Romney wins, you have to revert back to a red avatar and I get to pick your signature  through Inauguration Day (Must meet ToS). Deal?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Oh Politicoooooo....

I see no answer to my last offer, neither option of which is going require exchanging personal info.

Well? I'm not going to let this slide, as you seem to hope.

We can do the signature thing. I'm not Pete Rose.

If Obama wins, you get to pick my signature through Inauguration Day (Must meet ToS). If Romney wins, you have to revert back to a red avatar and I get to pick your signature  through Inauguration Day (Must meet ToS). Deal?