Pew (National): Obama breaks away(LV)

[Lief 🗽]

Romney is the first candidate since 1988 to have negative favorability ratings:

[pbrower2a]

What would an 8 point lead look like on an Electoral College Map?

This?

Switch Indiana and Tennessee.

[pbrower2a]

Romney hasn't polled as well in Tennessee as he has in Montana or Arizona...but things have tightened a little bit in Montana and South Dakota, so he might win there instead of Tennessee.

Though I also find it difficult to believe that Obama can win in Tennessee. 

Montana just got close.

Big Coal seems to dominate politics in Kentucky and West Virginia -- but not Tennessee.

[Thomas D]

Too good to be true?

[Niemeyerite]

party id: D +7

D 37
R 30
I 32

Obama wins I only by 2

So junk poll

Party ID is for amateurs.

The racial demos are actually better for the GOP than 2008: 76% white, compared to 74% four years ago. Less than 10% black, compared to 13%.

I prefer party id than racial demos. That's my experience. And actual polls confirm that.

Let's imagine that the poll was D+3 and not D+7. Obama would still have a sizable lead of 3-4 points

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Obama may win the election comfortably, but he isn't going to win Tennessee.

As the Weasel already pointed out, Obama was doing reasonably well against all of the Republican candidates in the polls taken before the primary.  If Obama manages to do better this year than in 2012, its possible he could take Tennessee.  It still would be very unlikely, but it's not impossible as it would be in Alabama or Mississippi.

[MorningInAmerica]

From the internals:

REGISTERED voters say they voted for Obama over McCain 47-32%.  (O+15)
Actual 2008 vote: 53-46% (O+7)

[Sbane]

Obama may win the election comfortably, but he isn't going to win Tennessee.

As the Weasel already pointed out, Obama was doing reasonably well against all of the Republican candidates in the polls taken before the primary.  If Obama manages to do better this year than in 2012, its possible he could take Tennessee.  It still would be very unlikely, but it's not impossible as it would be in Alabama or Mississippi.

Taking Tennessee would require Obama doing much better in the TVA counties. I don't know if that is possible with Obama....I wouldn't be surprised if there is a slight swing towards Obama in Davidson County though.

[Eraserhead]

What would an 8 point lead look like on an Electoral College Map?

This?

Switch Indiana and Tennessee.

I'd probably switch Georgia and Montana too. Georgia, Arizona and South Dakota would be pretty close but Romney would probably still carry them.