Pew (National): Obama breaks away(LV)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Oy.

http://www.people-press.org/2012/09/19/obama-ahead-with-stronger-support-better-image-and-lead-on-most-issues/

Obama        51
Romney       43

At this stage in the campaign, Barack Obama is in a strong position compared with past victorious presidential candidates. With an eight-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters, Obama holds a bigger September lead than the last three candidates who went on to win in November, including Obama four years ago. In elections since 1988, only Bill Clinton, in 1992 and 1996, entered the fall with a larger advantage.

[Move Forward]

Great news for Obama!

[หมูเด้ง]

What would an 8 point lead look like on an Electoral College Map?

This?

[Tender Branson]

Excellent !







Especially important:

[mondale84]

What would an 8 point lead look like on an Electoral College Map?

This?

If Obama wins Tennessee, he wins Arizona, Indiana, Montana and the Dakotas...

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Dominating.

[Reds4]

Obama may win the election comfortably, but he isn't going to win Tennessee.

[Likely Voter]

On the issue of "Connects with ordinary Americans" Obama leads 66 to 23.
And that is before the 47% thing. In a way, maybe the 47% wont have any impact because the perception is already baked in.

[Umengus]

party id: D +7

D 37
R 30
I 32

Obama wins I only by 2

So junk poll

[Tender Branson]

What would an 8 point lead look like on an Electoral College Map?

This?

What makes you think that TN votes so much differently than KY (where the latest poll has Obama down by double-digits) ? Of course we haven't seen a recent TN poll, but Obama is totally unlikely to carry that state.

[Tender Branson]

party id: D +7

D 37
R 30
I 32

Obama wins I only by 2

So junk poll

Of course you fail to see that the Democratic enthusiasm to vote is now equal to the Republican one in almost any recent poll. And because there are more registered Democrats in the country, there could be a D+7 electorate in November once again.

[Iowa+3]

What makes you believe that Mitt - Cheezy Grits will carry TN?

[mondale84]

party id: D +7

D 37
R 30
I 32

Obama wins I only by 2

So junk poll

I was waiting for you to troll this thread...

[หมูเด้ง]

Romney hasn't polled as well in Tennessee as he has in Montana or Arizona...but things have tightened a little bit in Montana and South Dakota, so he might win there instead of Tennessee.

Though I also find it difficult to believe that Obama can win in Tennesee. 

[Tender Branson]

What makes you believe that Mitt - Cheezy Grits will carry TN?

Hmm...

Recent election results ?

Wealthy suburbs around Nashville and Memphis ?

Obama is a Black, you see ?

[Iowa+3]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm sure he is. There are black folks in Tennessee, last I checked.

[Tender Branson]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm sure he is. There are black folks in Tennessee, last I checked.

Yeah, but only 10%. The rest is white.

[sobo]

Obama won by 7.2 in 2008. I don't see why the O+8 map would be all that different. He'd probably pick up MO, lose IN and NE-2 (because of redistricting). Everything else would just be a repeat.

[memphis]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm sure he is. There are black folks in Tennessee, last I checked.

Yeah, but only 10%. The rest is white.

17%, about half of whom live in my county. But yeah, Tennessee, is not competitive.

[Craigo]

party id: D +7

D 37
R 30
I 32

Obama wins I only by 2

So junk poll

Party ID is for amateurs.

The racial demos are actually better for the GOP than 2008: 76% white, compared to 74% four years ago. Less than 10% black, compared to 13%.

[Likely Voter]

Romney is getting 2% of blacks, up from 0%. Romneymentum!

[Umengus]

party id: D +7

D 37
R 30
I 32

Obama wins I only by 2

So junk poll

Party ID is for amateurs.

The racial demos are actually better for the GOP than 2008: 76% white, compared to 74% four years ago. Less than 10% black, compared to 13%.

I prefer party id than racial demos. That's my experience. And actual polls confirm that.

[Craigo]

party id: D +7

D 37
R 30
I 32

Obama wins I only by 2

So junk poll

Party ID is for amateurs.

The racial demos are actually better for the GOP than 2008: 76% white, compared to 74% four years ago. Less than 10% black, compared to 13%.

I prefer party id than racial demos. That's my experience. And actual polls confirm that.

"Your experience?" What experience do you actually have?

Party ID is a dependent variable with only a weak relationship to the final vote, and it can shift quickly from cycle to cycle. Racial demos, for one, shift slightly from year to year, and in predictable directions (i.e. the white vote drops slightly on average, the black/Hispanic vote increases slightly, and the Asian/Pacific islander vote remains very small.)

Real pollsters (excepting Scott Rasmussen) do not weight by party ID - and even Rasmussen doesn't, really.

[Health Over Wealth]

Isn't Pew one of the worst polling firms on Nate Silver's house effect list?  I think Obama's leading right now, but I wouldn't put too much stock into this one.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Isn't Pew one of the worst polling firms on Nate Silver's house effect list?  I think Obama's leading right now, but I wouldn't put too much stock into this one.

It had as of June about as much of a house effect as PPP. Something seems to have changed about one or various of the polling firms since then, though, if these recent numbers are any indication.